Grantland: Punting on 4th-and-1 candidate for worst coaching move of the year

[Dorian Gray]

Did Rivera really doubt his team's ability to convert after they "failed" to convert on third down? That seems impossibly short-sighted, especially considering Newton actually made it past the sticks before having the ball knocked out of his hands. Since Newton arrived in town, the Panthers have faced third- or fourth-and-1 on 24 occasions. They've converted on 21 of those 24 opportunities.

Given his team's particular mix of strengths and weaknesses, and the extremely high stakes of the situation, Rivera's decision to punt is a strong candidate for worst coaching decision of the year. ESPN Stats and Info's win expectancy model estimates that it dropped Carolina's chances of winning from 83.5 percent to 57.4 percent without adjusting for the specific skills of the two teams; chances are that Rivera dropped his team's "true" chances of winning by 35-40 percent by punting.

http://www.grantland...est-week-4-news

That 21-of-24 stat makes the call look even worse. At least the lunacy of it all is getting national attention.

[Kurb]

Tony Dungy's Opinon >>>>

[g5jamz]

The punt put the ball on the 1...tell me how that's a bad move with them with no timeouts. What happens when you don't get the 1 yard on 4th down. Yeah...make it a lot easier for them.

No...dumb move was calling inside run plays when they got jack crap during the game and someone felt we could to it when it mattered and 8+ in the box.

[jtm]

Hindsight is always 20/20.

[Cary Kollins]

I don't think punting was that terrible. It was a very long 1 yard and we had been getting pressure on Ryan all game. I think the worst thing Rivera did all day was not try to score with 3 timeouts before the 1st half ended.

If we PREVENT the falcons from converting on a hail mary, we win the game and the punting call looks great.

[Dorian Gray]

Hindsight is always 20/20.

A lot of people thought it was a bad move as it was happening. You need 1 yard to put the game away. You have Newton, Stewart, and Williams. You have almost 200 yards rushing already. You just got the first down the play before but fumbled it back. You've got Tolbert blocking. You're in Atlanta territory. Your defense has already given up huge plays in the passing game. Your secondary is hot garbage. You have the worst safety in the league. They have Matt Ryan and 2 big play receivers. They had taken a screen pass past our entire defense already.

You show guts and try to win it there. You don't put the game on your woeful secondary, no matter how unlikely it seems that they'll get beat (although it wasn't very unlikely considering how poorly they'd played all game).

[Tank]

I wouldn't consider that punt in that situation to even be a candidate for worst decision of the year.

[Fox007]

Just showing what the smart people already knew.

[Banjo]

No one can stop Cam when he wants a yard. When it comes to relying on Cam or this defense to win a game, give me Cam 100% of the time

[Sloth]

A lot of people thought it was a bad move as it was happening. You need 1 yard to put the game away. You have Newton, Stewart, and Williams. You have almost 200 yards rushing already. You just got the first down the play before but fumbled it back. You've got Tolbert blocking. You're in Atlanta territory. Your defense has already given up huge plays in the passing game. Your secondary is hot garbage. You have the worst safety in the league. They have Matt Ryan and 2 big play receivers. They had taken a screen pass past our entire defense already.

You show guts and try to win it there. You don't put the game on your woeful secondary, no matter how unlikely it seems that they'll get beat (although it wasn't very unlikely considering how poorly they'd played all game).

Thank you.

We couldn't stop Turner (something stupid like 7 or 8 YPC), couldn't stop White, and Jones was one mental mistake from putting the game away a drive earlier. Ryan was right around 300 yards. Our tackling looked like a blooper reel for the majority of the night. Our FS had already been torched deep a couple of times along with our starting rookie 5th round CB.

We have a ridiculous amount of our cap invested in running the ball, along with a 8 foot tall quarterback who continues to set rushing records.

We needed one fuging yard.

[Peppers90 NC]

cam doesnt fumble we win the game. most coaches punt in that situation especially seeing how our dline was getting in ryans ass. atlanta should be counting their blessings for this gift of a win.

[TheGreatestOfAllTimeCam]

Even if we go for it and DON'T make it... no one is sitting here blaming him for losing aggressively. Most people in the press and the fans would prefer, if you're going to lose you lose firing every bullet in the gun. You can't fault a coach as badly if you try to win a game and you lose bc of it.

Just a horrible decision by Rivera and I'll never get past it. I'm done with him.

[Chaos]

And yet here we sit on Monday, where the punt is called the worst decision ever, and Cam still feels responsible because he fumbled on the 3rd down play that was sure to get the first down and end the game. Total catch 22, that effectively our offense and our defense failed us.

[Dorian Gray]

You can't just look at the situation as one play. You can't say "any NFL coach would have done the same." Because any other NFL coach doesn't have our JV DB's. You HAVE to take into consideration how bad our defense is and, particularly, how bad our secondary is. You HAVE to take into account that Nakamura and Norman were getting torched all game. If we had the Ravens defense, of course it's smart to punt there and we should've done it. But we don't. We have defensive backs who are worse at judging the ball in the air than high school players. All you have to do is throw it up, and our guys will jump at it while it's still at its peak. The strength of our team is running the ball. We have $2.9 trillion tied up in our backfield. And you're telling me we don't trust them to get ONE YARD with the game on the line? Come on man.