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All possible scenarios between CAR, SF, ARI. (32 exactly) UPDATED.

iBBB

By iBBB,
in Carolina Panthers

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iBBB Newbie

iBBB

Posted
Posted

EDIT:

Even Better Odds !

I found a small error in Scenario 1 Case 2 (i didnt have us making playoffs if all three teams end up with 10-6 or 11-5 but we would)

10-6 record has us at 50.00%

11-5 record or 12-4 record, gives 100% to make the playoffs.

_________________________________________________

 

So I was bored this morning and figured out all possible scenarios between us, sanfran and arizona.

 

Before I give you the odds and percentages, let me explain how I got them.

Next week (week 16), there are 8 possible scenarios between the three teams.

-CAR loss / SF loss / ARI loss

-CAR loss / SF loss / ARI win

-CAR loss / SF win / ARI loss

-CAR win / SF loss / ARI loss

-CAR win / SF loss / ARI win

-CAR win / SF win / ARI loss

-CAR win / SF win / ARI win

 

Then, for week 17, there are 4 more scenarios but I call them cases. 

The four cases are:

-CAR loss / SF win / ARI loss

-CAR loss / SF loss / ARI win

-CAR win / SF win / ARI loss

-CAR win / SF loss / ARI win

keep in mind that SF plays ARI

 

With that in mind, each scenario of week 16 and 4 possible outcomes of week 17, gives us 32 possible scenarios.

 

Based on the tie-breaking between the three clubs, there are the following odds and percentages:

 

As of today:

CAR has 87.50% to make the playoffs

SF has 84.37% to make the playoffs

ARI has 28.12% to make the playoffs

 

With a W against the Saints week 16:

CAR has 100% to make the playoffs

 

With a L against the Saints week 16:

CAR has 75.00% to make the playoffs

 

With a W against the Saints week 16 & a L against Falcons week 17:

CAR has 100% to make the playoffs

 

With a L against the Saints week 16 & a L against Falcons week 17:

CAR has 50.00% to make the playoffs

 

With a L against the Saints week 16 & a W against Falcons week 17:

CAR has 100% to make the playoffs

 

So you see, if we split next two games, we make the playoffs no matter what.

 

For any questions, study the attachements I provided.

 

I only have one question, how will we be seeded if all three clubs finish the season 11-5 ?

I have CAR, and SF advancing to playoffs in my report (because of the Conference Record), is that correct?

 

Thanks for reading!

 

Here is the spreadsheet in html format:

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40564578/Scenarios.htm

 

Here is the spreadsheet in xlsx format:

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/40564578/Scenarios.xlsx

 

Pictures:

Scenarios1.JPG

 

Scenarios2.JPG

 

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BuckNaked Newbie

BuckNaked

Posted
Posted

Good research. My only question is if we lose one game then win against Atl and SF, AZ wins out. That will leave us out wouldn't it?

 

Well AZ and SF play each other so both of them can't win both games.  If AZ wins out then SF has to loose and as long as we win one more we have the tiebreaker against them,  if SF wins and we win one more we automatically have a better record than AZ.

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