Why we may not need a "No.1", and can draft impact WRs later in this deep class

[top dawg]

OK, there are some (who shall remain nameless) in another thread basically trolling people about the Panthers' ability to get a No. 1 receiver outside of pick 28.  Well, of course there is no perfect science or equation to finding a beast of a receiver because there are too many variables involved, the least of which is luck. But I decided to take a look at last year as a case study to see if his predictions of doom and gloom were warranted. 

 

Now, just for fun, my focus is not going to be on guys that are the true so-called No. 1 receivers in the NFL.  I don't even necessarily like the term because it's subjective and debatable, but I think we can all agree that Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, A.J. Green and Andre Johnson are the true beasts of the NFL, AND have the body of work that proves it. That being said, it probably is not going to surprise you that they were all drafted in the first round, and all were in the top 10 for receiving yards in 2013. 

 

The good news is that there are other people who were drafted outside of the first round who were very  productive.

 

Dave Gettleman is a self-proclaimed draft guru (for lack of a better term) that has tooted his own horn for his ability to find talent (gems).  Unfortunately we will never know the whole scoop on Gettleman because although he helped find talent, we'll never know who else the Giants had to pass up on come draft day, but we do know that they've had some very talented guys at all positions---enough to compete for and win championships under his watchful eye.  We also know that Gettleman did a pretty good job last year in the draft, especially at our deepest position of need.  Moreover, Ron Rivera's era has not disappointed with picks at the top of the draft (for what it's worth). 

 

But Gettleman aside, if you look at 2013, here are guys NOT drafted in the first round who put up numbers. Of course some were in better circumstances than others, but most WERE the primary focus of opposing defenses last year. And, even guys like Eric Decker, Julian Edelman and Harry Douglas benefited because of another weapon around them (which also means that the WR2 can benefit greatly with another quality guy on the field who is either a true No.1 WR, or at least puts up WR1-like numbers on any given Sunday.

 

Josh Gordon:          the leading receiver in the NFL, 2nd round, supplemental draft

Antonio Brown :      the second leading receiver, 6th round

Alshon Jeffery:        talent and size to be a beast, 2nd round

Pierre Garcon:        top 10, 6th round

Desean Jackson:    top 10, 2nd round

Jordy Nelson:          top 10 with Randall Cobb hurt most of the season, 2nd round

Brandon Marshall:   beast any day of the week, 4th round

Eric Decker;           Broncos WR2 in yardage, average, and TDs, 3rd round

Vincent Jackson:    2nd round

Anquan Boldin:       2nd round

Torrey Smith:         2nd round

T.Y. Hilton:             the real deal, and that's with Reggie Wayne hurt most of the season, 3rd round

Harry Douglas:       filled in for Julio pretty well, and with a hurt Roddy White, 3rd Round 

Julian Edelman:      Pats' effective WR1, 7th round

Keenan Allen:         didn't start until week 3, OROY, 3rd round

Brian Hartline:         still the guy notwithstanding Mike Wallace, 4th round

 

That's your 1000 yard club in 2013 for wide receivers. I left out Jimmy Graham because he isn't a wide receiver, but he was the only TE to gain over 1000 yards.

 

Now, Victor Cruz missed it by a couple of yards in a down year by Eli Manning and the offense, and we all know that our very own Dave Gettleman acquired the UDFA for the Giants.  Marques Colston (7th), Mike Wallace(3rd) and Nate Washington (UDFA) were 900 yard receivers and mostly the primary focus of opposing defenses, or at the very least guys who will produce with another play maker on the field (much like Eric Decker, Jordy Nelson, DeSean Jackson and others).  And, i didn't even mention an undervalued role player like Golden Tate (2nd round) who put up near 900 yards in a ground-game offense without Percy Harvin. Then there's Randall Cobb (2nd Round) who put up nearly 900  yards in 2012 and was well on his way to best that number last year before he got hurt. And, again, there are some names that I didn't mention like Dez Bryant, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, Julio Jones, Hakeem Nicks and Cordarelle Patterson (who looks to be an ominous monster), but that's because they were drafted in the first round. Most of them---except for Dez Bryant and the aforementioned No. 1 receivers---weren't in the top 20, so the list above is comprised of very productive guys.

 

So basically there is hope that we can and will get some guys to help us out, even if we don't pick a wide-out at number 28.  And, like many of you said, take the advice of the experts as opposed to someone trolling on  a message board.  The list goes down the line based upon production (as well as the 900 yarders in the paragraph). You may also want to note that not every guy on the list is a tree, or a cheetah.  This draft is deep, and sure guys like Kevin Benjamin, Davante Adams, Donte Moncrief, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry, Brandon Coleman, Martavis Bryant, Cody Latimer, John Abbrederis, Devin Street, Robert Herron, and even Matt Hazel may not amount to anything. But, then again, with the size and speed of some of these guys (among a few others), there are reasons to believe that they can be productive NFL receivers.  There is a reason why the experts---not necessarily all the talking heads, but the scouts and GMs as well---are saying this is one of the deepest classes of wide receivers in years.

 

Lastly, I would love for someone to do a list for offensive tackles, as some are also alluding to the fact that it's foolish to think that we will be able to draft a quality starting tackle as well outside of the first round.

[PantherWake]

I'm still butthurt about not getting Alshon 

[Kuech the Sneak]

Don't think receiver in the first round is a necessity, looks like a deep receiver draft.

[rodeo]

Most of these players were pleasant surprises for teams who already had #1s. They didn't completely gut their WRs corps and then stake their entire offense on finding a superstar UDFA.

[Mr Mojo Risin]

Good write up thanks

[top dawg]

Good write up thanks

 

You got it, man.  Thanks. It took a little while, but anything for my fellow Huddlers.

[WOW!!]

Don't think receiver in the first round is a necessity, looks like a deep receiver draft.

It's not necessary but if we don't get one on the 1st then we need to get 2 in the next few rounds.

[Lumps]

I just wanted to add that hardly ANY of even the most elite recievers made it to 1,000 yards their first season, AJ green is the only one who has that out of those I think and barley does at that.. It takes a while for recievers to really make an impact, and I am not just talking about recieving yards, I am talking about contributing to winning, which includes more than just yards. Smitty for example was an excellent blocker.

 

Basically what I am saying is that, knowing how the huddle thinks, everyone needs to calm down an stop expecting a reciever in the first round, or any round to come in right away and be a game changer, it could happen but rarely happens that way and I know that is what the huddle is expecting.

 

 

[BigBoss]

I'm not going to read ALLL THAT just to hear why we MAYYBE may not when we deff do.  If it were shorter I'd read it, but for now I'll just stick to the far more obvious reasons.

 

A great powerful target for Cam to rely on in future years.

[KillerKat]

I'm not going to read ALLL THAT just to hear why we MAYYBE may not when we deff do.  If it were shorter I'd read it, but for now I'll just stick to the far more obvious reasons.

 

A great powerful target for Cam to rely on in future years.

I'd rather to protect Cam first so that we can rely on him for years to come.

[top dawg]

Most of these players were pleasant surprises for teams who already had #1s. They didn't completely gut their WRs corps and then stake their entire offense on finding a superstar UDFA.

 

The point is is these guys were the cream of the crop in 2013, regardless of whether or not they were opposite WR1s or not.  I only see five to six on the list who played on teams that already have/had WR1s, and that's even where you include both Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery.

 

T.Y. Hilton played most of the season without Reggie Wayne. Jordy Nelson played without Randall Cobb most of the season as well. Arguably, it's getting to the point where with them that the lines are blurred as to who the WR1 on their teams are.  

 

The thing is is that the guys produced regardless of the circumstances. Even if they weren't in fact the number 1 target on the team, they still produced which is what an effective second receiving target on the team gets paid to do.  I want a WR2 who can punish the defense when left alone.  I would like a WR2 who can effectively play as the WR1 if the top guy goes down.

 

Hell, in a perfect world my WR3 would do the same, but an effective WR3 should at least be able to take advantage of mismatches when the other guys are drawing the fire.

[WOW!!]

I'd rather to protect Cam first so that we can rely on him for years to come.

The problem is BPA philosophy works better for WR in this draft.

Getting Cam protection is important but this draft is better filled with weapons. Which is also a big need.

[top dawg]

I just wanted to add that hardly ANY of even the most elite recievers made it to 1,000 yards their first season, AJ green is the only one who has that out of those I think and barley does at that.. It takes a while for recievers to really make an impact, and I am not just talking about recieving yards, I am talking about contributing to winning, which includes more than just yards. Smitty for example was an excellent blocker.

 

Basically what I am saying is that, knowing how the huddle thinks, everyone needs to calm down an stop expecting a reciever in the first round, or any round to come in right away and be a game changer, it could happen but rarely happens that way and I know that is what the huddle is expecting.

 

Well, you're probably right.  But I would hope to think that after being preached to and educated for weeks on end that people would temper their expectations.

 

Cordarelle Patterson is scary. He started late, but began to come on more and more. He was a project coming into the draft, as were players like Alshon Jeffery and Michael Floyd. But all of them were starting to get it by the second half of last season, and will probably grow even more to varying degrees. And, to not leave the little guys out, T.Y. Hilton, Antonio Brown, and D-Jax (and maybe Randall Cobb) probably showed even more of an initial flash their first years, but still didn't really break out until year two.

 

Patience is a virtue.

 

That's why I am kind of torn on Benjamin. If he has more potential to be beast---a true No. 1 of the NFL (as opposed to a bust like Stephen Hill), then I think that we should take him, regardless if he'll be ready to be a day-one starter or not. The thing is is that I don't know if G-man would see it that way.  Elite guys don't come along every day.  I could easily see G-man going for the now, as opposed to the later as it pertains to Benjamin.  Of course the point is moot if Benjamin doesn't do well at his workouts.

[Jackofalltrades]

Good work OP. Only an idiot would think you can't get viable starters and stars anywhere in the draft. Sure, the likelihood of success drops the further you go, but there are plenty of UDFA's and late picks with busts in Canton.