Inside Slant: Running back cliff after age 27

[jtnc]

 

The red line represents all running backs who have played at least four NFL seasons since 2001, with a minimum average of 75 carries per season. Overall, we see their careers peak at age 27. Afterward, their rushing totals drop by 15 percent in one year, 25 percent in two and almost 40 by the time they are 30. 

Most decision-makers -- whether their background was in scouting, accounting or anything in between -- saw that trend as a bad investment. As with any business, they reserve premium contracts for projected growth in production, not a decline. 

 

For comparison's sake, the graph also includes the receiver position (in blue, minimum average of 50 receptions over the same time period). You'll see some fluctuations, but even at age 31, the composite receiver produced a near-identical yardage total as he did at age 27. In other words, it's reasonable to expect a high-level performance into a receiver's early 30s. 

 

 

Running backs get no such benefit of the doubt, nor should they from a strict business sense. Even Minnesota Vikings tailback Adrian Peterson, one of the league's best players at any position, contributed to the curve at age 28 last season. It's true that he had the fifth-most rushing yards (1,266) in the NFL, but he also missed two games and overall fell 40 percent from his 2,097-yard effort in 2012. 

 

That line graph, along with a season that produced its fewest total league-wide rushing yards (57,795) in six seasons, led us to the eye-opening 2014 offseason. Keep in mind that age 27 is the essential point where most players, under the current collective bargaining agreement, become free agents for the first time. At their first opportunity for a payday, the league already views them to be beyond their prime. 

 

As of this week, teams have 177 running backs under contract. Of that group, 128 (72 percent) are 26 or younger. I counted only eight runners over the age of 29. Meanwhile, there was an obvious link between the handful of mid-20s running backs who did receive multiyear contracts this spring: None have been four-year feature backs. 

 

http://a.espncdn.com/photo/chartbuilder/Age-vs-Production-Running-Backs-Receivers1396880190285.png

 

Jonathan Stewart: 27

 

Deangelo Williams: 31

 

 

[Jackofalltrades]

Doesn't matter; we're stuck with them for now.

[TANTRIC-NINJA]

Attention Chris Johnson....Front offices apparently know all about this and the stats dont lie..just signing bonuses.

Well all except one front office apparently....as Gettleman is vomiting in his office trash can everytime he sees the RB contracts.

[Ghost of Steve Smith]

Age has almost nothing to do with it. The reason they wear down at such a young age is because of the physical beating their body takes. The human body isn't designed to sustain the abuse a running back endures.

Generally speaking a 27-29 year old man is at the peak of his physical stature, not a 21-23 year old who is a very young adult. The reason younger backs are more productive is because their body doesn't have any wear on it.

Williams is fine. He has a few good years left in him. The o-line is the only problem with our running game right now. Career carries compared to some of the premier backs in the league, age by midseason.

Tolbert, 28- 496 carries

Stewart, 27- 866 carries

Williams, 31- 1,370 carries

McCoy, 26- 1,149 carries

Johnson, 29- 1,742 carries

Lynch, 28- 1,753 carries

Peterson, 29- 2,033 carries

Gore, 31- 2,187 carries

[JerrichoScores]

This date is going to change with less bell-cow backs and fewer high carry totals ... backs will stay fresher longer.

[stirs]

This kind of stuff does not exist in Hurney Land though.

[frash.exe]

Well obviously all those older running backs need better offensive lines I don't see how that's not clear to you

[Ghost of Steve Smith]

Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, & Darren Sproles are the only active players with a higher yard per carry average than D-Will.

[panthers222]

Age has almost nothing to do with it. The reason they wear down at such a young age is because of the physical beating their body takes. The human body isn't designed to sustain the abuse a running back endures.

Generally speaking a 27-29 year old man is at the peak of his physical stature, not a 21-23 year old who is a very young adult. The reason younger backs are more productive is because their body doesn't have any wear on it.

Williams is fine. He has a few good years left in him. The o-line is the only problem with our running game right now. Career carries compared to some of the premier backs in the league, age by midseason.

Tolbert, 28- 496 carries

Stewart, 27- 866 carries

Williams, 31- 1,370 carries

McCoy, 26- 1,149 carries

Johnson, 29- 1,742 carries

Lynch, 28- 1,753 carries

Peterson, 29- 2,033 carries

Gore, 31- 2,187 carries

 

Age also has to be factored in. If you look at 2007 Deangelo and the current Deangelo there is a big difference in speed. He seemed to have lost that breakaway speed that made him great despite his relatively low mileage or wear and tear on the body. Someone like AP has had a ton of wear is and still considered one of the best. There is a balance between age and wear/tear/mileage that have to be factored in.  

[panthermonium]

Age has almost nothing to do with it. The reason they wear down at such a young age is because of the physical beating their body takes. The human body isn't designed to sustain the abuse a running back endures.

Williams, 31- 1,370 carries

While I agree with you that Deangelo still has a few solid years left and I don't mind him being on the roster, the guy was a 4 year work horse at Memphis, amounting a little less than a 1000 carries over his collegiate career. He WAS Memphis' offense.

I still believe he has some tread left, and sharing the backfield the majority of his pro career has helped that, but he's got some miles on those tires.

Sent from my Nexus 5 using CarolinaHuddle mobile app

[davos]

The real cliff there is 30/31. It's where they dip below or toward their first year output.  

 

27/28 is the peak.  The aging between then and 31 has the most effect.  

[Ghost of Steve Smith]

Regardless.... DeAngelo is here for 1-2 more years. Even at his age he should still be very productive due to his light career workload.

[Carl Spackler]

Stewart is more like 24, since he's had several years off.

[heel31ok]

Well obviously all those older running backs need better offensive lines I don't see how that's not clear to you

 

maybew, if we knew who they were we could comment on them as per their individual talents.