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Harvard - Panthers bottom 10 team in 2015

Jeremy Igo

By Jeremy Igo,
in Carolina Panthers

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Jeremy Igo Newbie

Jeremy Igo

Posted
Posted

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2015/07/a-way-too-early-prediction-of-the-nfl-season/

 

Now that it’s late July, football fans everywhere are looking forward to the opening of training camp, preseason, and the not-so-distant start of the regular season.  Even though the so-called football experts struggle to forecast the outcomes of the 16-game season, I’ll try to put together a prediction model for the NFL season using a more quantitative method than the likes of Trent Dilfer.

The biggest challenge obviously is to come up with a sound way to estimate team strength, an endeavor that’s demanding considering the amount of personnel turnover each offseason and the lack of advanced statistics to evaluate player interactions.  The method that I came up with uses Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value statistic, the site’s best measure of trying to tease out individual talent.  Then, using ESPN’s NFL depth charts, I aggregated each team’s per game approximate value of what I considered to be the “core” makeup of an NFL team: QB, RB, 2 WR, TE, Top 2 OL, the Top-4 “Front Seven” defensive players, and the Top-2 players from the secondary.

 

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Not much love at all for the Carolina Panthers this season. What does this Harvard guy know that we don't? (Or vice versa)

 

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juliosantos Newbie

juliosantos

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The Luck praise is one thing, but having the Colts as a team that high is absurd. They're the most imbalanced team in the league, that defense is a complete joke.

they all love to suck off andrew luck and make him seem like hes the best qb to ever play but they make excuses for why he throws intos and gets blown out in the playoffs

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updownsigma Rookie

updownsigma

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*Insert joke about him being associated with Harvard and questioning his intelligence after he picks our team to do poorly here* But really, haven't read the whole thing yet but his method for determining what/how good the "core" of a team is seems extremely flawed and arbitrary. Why look at AV of only the top 2 OL for example? Say one team has 5 very good to all pro lineman, why discount those remaining 3 players (maybe this is why the Cowboys are so low? Could just be because the Cowboys suck though).

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    • frankw
      Why does Bryce get the blame?

      By frankw · Posted

      The same folks crying about the OL right now were crying about it in 2023 too. We have tied up over 100 million dollars in two interior olinemen alone and we have Taylor Moton inked to a recent extension. We've invested multiple first and second round picks in the offense. We hired an offensive minded head coach. This is an offensive team. The offense needs to produce or people need to be replaced.
    • frankw
      Why does Bryce get the blame?

      By frankw · Posted

      This is the same place that has ridiculed and blasted Caleb Williams at every opportunity he has his team sitting at 10-4 in the same NFC that the Panthers are competing in. And their division in the NFC North is as or more competitive as our division. Yet from the same people who have very high standards for Williams we get every excuse imaginable for the smallest starting QB in the league even when he and his team continue to disappoint when the pressure is on. You lot aren't any less inconsistent than anyone else.
    • *FreeFua*
      Why does Bryce get the blame?

      By *FreeFua* · Posted

      The Panthers are 9th in cap spent on offense this year.  However next season is already a different story  The Panthers as it stands right now will be 18th in cap spent on offense and 8th in cap spent on defense  The Panthers are currently set to spend more on defense next year than they are on offense this season Guys like Jaycee and Moehrig cap numbers take a big jump. Wharton has a massive cap hit   Jaycee Moehrig and Wharton in 2025 The same 3 in 2026 So this same defense as it stands right now will cost more in 2026 than this offense does right now… Got anything else you want to try?
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