Patriots exploiting new kickoff rule to their benefit

[Growl]

I changed the title because of how apparently obsessive you people are over me using the "wrong" synonym.

 

Anyways, I will add, I did like seeing a different adjustment we made to KR-pulling Joe Webb off the field and appearing to add an extra blocker. Webb always looks fantastically slow on kick returns and there's really no scenario where you want him handling the kick over Ted.

 

 

[Ricky Spanish]

15 minutes ago, jayflip said:

I love how the Pats are handling this stupid rule. A nice F U to the rule and spinning it to their advantage. 

As to the dude who said "it's only 5 yards" I would love to see someone **cough** @KB_fan **cough** show some data on avg starting position and scoring % broken down further FG vs TD. 

I have a feeling that only a "few yards" can make a pretty big difference. 

http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2009/01/drive-results.html

http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/06/field-position-and-scoring.html

Doesn't look too significant. 

[KB_fan]

13 minutes ago, jayflip said:

As to the dude who said "it's only 5 yards" I would love to see someone **cough** @KB_fan **cough** show some data on avg starting position and scoring % broken down further FG vs TD. 

I have a feeling that only a "few yards" can make a pretty big difference. 

Actually, I've been thinking about doing something on this soon...

In week 2, Panthers were 0/6 in terms of scoring any points on drives starting inside our own 22 and 8/8 on drives starting at our 22 or beyond.  49ers were 0/5 from drives starting inside their 25.  That got my attention, and I definitely want to do some research on field position and scoring.

[ShutDwn]

46 minutes ago, Growl said:

A "few" yards on a 100 y field isn't a small deal.

 

Teams went decades facing the possibility that the opposing team could run it back. You don't base your game plan around a fluke play that happens maybe once a season.

Those 5 yards aren't magical, it's going to be a linear relationship. 

http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/06/field-position-and-scoring.html

[Growl]

7 minutes ago, ShutDwn said:

Those 5 yards aren't magical, it's going to be a linear relationship. 

http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/06/field-position-and-scoring.html

This shows a legitimate upwards veer in percentage of scoring the better field position you have (obviously), and validates my point all the further.

 

Not sure what you're trying to say, unless its that you believe kickoff returns for TDs are much more threatening than the better opportunity for scoring showcased by this photograph, which would also be wrong.

 

It seems as if you think that for a better starting field position to be justified against the (incredibly rare) KR TD, then there should've been an astronomical increase percentage-wise, which is misguided. Its a game of inches and the game is won in those inches, and its helped the Patriots coast to 3-0 despite the obvious misgivings on their roster right now.

[Jase]

Look at 80 yards to go vs 75 yards to go.  Nominal.

[Dave Gettleman's Shorts]

TBH, i want teams to kick the ball short to Ted Ginn. He's usually 1 block from taking it to the house. Nvm, they would just call holding on us.

[Growl]

9 minutes ago, Jase said:

Look at 80 yards to go vs 75 yards to go.  Nominal.

The blue dot at 75 is very clearly above the dot at 80. The disparity is of no consequence. Teams in this league exploit every possible avenue to a competitive advantage to fullest, driest, dustiest part of the well. If teams are exploiting an advantage against the panthers that they themselves are not capitalizing on, it only makes it that much more difficult to win.

 

It should also be noted this data is inevitably going to be altered with the implementation of the new rule, and with the way NE has pinned teams inside the 20 and SF did the same to us, the data is going to shift drastically. You're talking about a 7-8 yard advantage to teams successfully exploiting the new rule, which will inevitably steepen the line.

 

[PntherPryd]

I'm glad you started the thread OP, I saw the article and was thinking similarly.  During the game I kept thinking we were really getting outplayed on KO ST's.  But when I just looked at the numbers I'm not sure I agree.  Minus the squib kick to end the first half, Gano kicked off 9 times (by my quick count).  6 of those were touchbacks.

The other 3?  returned from the 3 to the 14; from the 5 to the 30 and from the -2 to the 22.  Pulling from my inner KB, that gives us our opponent an average starting position from KO as the 24 yard line.

On the flip side:

San Fran kicked off 6 times with no touchbacks.  To Dawson's credit, every kick went to the 5 or the 3, obviously this was their strategy.  They recovered a muffed catch, scoring a quick TD but also gave up a long return, giving up a FG.  With those 5 kicks our average starting position after KO was at the 31.6 yard line.

So the question of strategy is, do you have kicker aim for inside the 5 on every KO and rely on ST unit to perform?  Or do you mix it up?  Even the Patriots perform the later (copying us) as noted in that article.  They have kicked off 18 times in 3 games with 10 "stupid" touchbacks (according to Gostkowski).

I think I am ok with the strategy of mixing it up.

Of course, the best strategy to win is to kick off 10 times per game!

 

 

 

[KTM200]

I've said this from day one since the new rule was implemented that if a team would be able to consistently kick the ball to the 5 yard or less, preferably about a yard deep into the endzone that it either forces or entices the return guy to run the ball out and statistically he usually makes it to about the 15 yard line. Right off the bat you've netted 5 yards maybe more on average. In a game of inches that's a lot of real estate potentially over the course of the game. Of course, numerous other stats play into the outcome of the game. All of these minor and often over looked details can mean the difference between winning and losing in the parody filled NFL where a lot of games are decide by a few points or less...

[gtanaka]

If we had really good coverage on special teams, I would be all for it. But our special teams has shown to be less than competent very often and I could see us giving more than 25 yards on returns fairly often. Over the last few years we have lost so many games on special teams.

[TheSpecialJuan]

Many teams are doing this and it really works.

[KB_fan]

One thing is for sure.  With this rule change, and with the acquisition of an elite punter, I've started paying a lot more attention to ST stats in my gamebook data entry and analysis. 

I'll try to keep an eye on return data and kickoff field position and post it in the weekly stats & analysis threads if at all possible.

[Mojo]

6 hours ago, Jase said:

Look at 80 yards to go vs 75 yards to go.  Nominal.

In a game of inches I'll take it.