Jump to content

  • Welcome!

    Register and log in easily with Twitter or Google accounts!

    Or simply create a new Huddle account. 

    Members receive fewer ads , access our dark theme, and the ability to join the discussion!

     

If Gettleman hired his own coach, would you trust he'll make the right decision?

beastson

By beastson,
in Carolina Panthers

Recommended Posts

CRA Grand Master

CRA

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 15 said:

084.png 

Star, KB, Shaq...way too early to evaluate Butler

last 2 first round picks have been drafted with their intention to be depth and rotational for at least their first few seasons.  I'm not questioning the players in terms of talent.

But if you claim you want to build your team through the draft and start going consecutive drafts where you spend your first round picks on guys intended to be backups?  I think it is a realistic argument your team on the field will start feeling the effects of it.  In today's NFL people expect those picks to produce and produce soon.  By design our last couple haven't be intended to do so.  So even if you hit a draft pick out of the park and they sit on the sideline....it then begins to limit the impact and change they could make for a team.   You can nail a draft pick and hardly improve your team at all. 

Now if you aren't a team that puts the extreme emphasis on building through the draft I wouldn't take as much issue with it.  

Goes back to the days of debating if we should extend Williams and Stewart.  Having a bunch of great players at one spot is a great talking point.  But you can never get around the fact your high investment assets are spending a lot of time watching from the sideline.  Hate me for it, but at least I am consistent about the logic.

For example, I actually like Shaq the player more than the average huddler does (and he is pretty popular).  But unless something happens to Luke or TD we aren't going to get the most out of what he can provide under his rookie deal.  Same goes for Butler.  

so it isn't about the players ability but more roster management and building a well rounded team.  Haven't liked the last 2 drafts in the first round and his last offseason in term of building this roster....and it is a what have you done for me lately business.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CRA Grand Master

CRA

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bartin said:

He would likely hire some philosophically antiquated asshole like Tom Coughlin.

I don't know if that is good or bad, but it is definitely the type of guy I would expect him to hire.

Coughlin actually was talking last night about coaching again on MNF. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
panthers1234 Newbie

panthers1234

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, CRA said:

last 2 first round picks have been drafted with their intention to be depth and rotational for at least their first few seasons.  I'm not questioning the players in terms of talent.

But if you claim you want to build your team through the draft and start him consecutive drafts where you spend your first round picks on guys intended to be backups?  I think it is a realistic argument your team on the field will start feeling the effects of it.  In today's NFL people expect those picks to produce and produce soon.  By design our last couple haven't be intended to do so.

Now if you aren't a team that puts the extreme emphasis on building through the draft I wouldn't take as much issue with it.  

Goes back to the days of debating if we should extend Williams and Stewart.  Having a bunch of great players at one spot is a great talking point.  But you can never get around the fact your high investment assets are spending a lot of time watching from the sideline.  Hate me for it, but at least I am consistent about the logic.

For example, I actually like Shaq the player more than the average huddler does (and he is pretty popular).  But unless something happens to Luke or TD we aren't going to get the most out of what he can provide under his rookie deal.  Same goes for Butler.  

so it isn't about the players ability but more roster management and building a well rounded team.  Haven't liked the last 2 drafts I the first round and his last offseason in term of building this roster....and it is a what have you done for me lately business.

Heres the thing when your picking in the mid to late 20s all the "sure things" are off the table. You don't think he wants a starter to play right away. When its our turn to pick we usually pick someone who expected to go soon anyway. Its not like we know the other potential draft picks will become starters right away. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bartin Collaborator

Bartin

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Mother Grabber said:

yeah, winning super bowls would be awful.

Well I never said Coughlin would be good or bad and hiring him doesn't guarantee a Super Bowl just because he has won them previously. He's also 70 years old so you're hiring another coach in a few years if you do hire him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
manu4t Newbie

manu4t

Posted
Posted

I have never been convinced DG would have hired RR to begin with.  They both got thrown together without mutual input.  In fact, I would not have been surprised if DG was lightly pressing to fire RR during the 2014 season. 

To the point and question at hand - hard to say what DG would do or who he would hire since he has not hired any coaches before.  In fact, I would say it is equally likely he would hire RR as opposed to someone else had he been here when RR was interviewing because we have no idea what he would do in hindsight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SpeedOFLight Collaborator

SpeedOFLight

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CRA said:

last 2 first round picks have been drafted with their intention to be depth and rotational for at least their first few seasons.  I'm not questioning the players in terms of talent.

But if you claim you want to build your team through the draft and start him consecutive drafts where you spend your first round picks on guys intended to be backups?  I think it is a realistic argument your team on the field will start feeling the effects of it.  In today's NFL people expect those picks to produce and produce soon.  By design our last couple haven't be intended to do so.

Now if you aren't a team that puts the extreme emphasis on building through the draft I wouldn't take as much issue with it.  

Goes back to the days of debating if we should extend Williams and Stewart.  Having a bunch of great players at one spot is a great talking point.  But you can never get around the fact your high investment assets are spending a lot of time watching from the sideline.  Hate me for it, but at least I am consistent about the logic.

For example, I actually like Shaq the player more than the average huddler does (and he is pretty popular).  But unless something happens to Luke or TD we aren't going to get the most out of what he can provide under his rookie deal.  Same goes for Butler.  

so it isn't about the players ability but more roster management and building a well rounded team.  Haven't liked the last 2 drafts I the first round and his last offseason in term of building this roster....and it is a what have you done for me lately business.

I never really thought of it that way. You make a great point and even gave me a new perspective.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • PMH4OWPW7JD2TDGWZKTOYL2T3E.jpg

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • electro's horse
      The NFL seems to be intent on killing the Panthers season this weekend, per the ref assignment

      By electro's horse · Posted

      Panthers are killing their own season by trotting out lil Bryce 
    • Navy_football
      Going for it instead of leading by two scores in the 4th

      By Navy_football · Posted

      Wow, didn't catch that!  I don't think Chuba's a power back either but he's usually good at getting that 1 or 2 yards. That was an uncharacteristic day for him.
    • hepcat
      The NFL seems to be intent on killing the Panthers season this weekend, per the ref assignment

      By hepcat · Posted

      The referee assigned to this game is Shawn Smith. This is a critical data point for betting purposes because his crew has one of the most distinct, long-term statistical biases in the NFL. "Road Team" Bias: Historically, Shawn Smith is known as the "Road Team Referee." In a league where home teams usually win ~55% of the time, home teams in Smith's games have historically won at a rate far below league average (often hovering around 40-42%). Against The Spread (ATS): The trend is even starker here. Home teams have covered the spread at a rate of roughly 37-40% in his career. The Mechanism: Analysis shows his crew tends to call a higher rate of False Start and Unnecessary Roughness penalties on the Home Team. This negates the traditional home-field advantage (crowd noise causing false starts for the visitors). Impact on This Game: This specific assignment heavily favors the Buccaneers (Road Team). If you believe the referee influences the game, Smith's presence suggests the Panthers will struggle to get "home cooking" calls and may face untimely procedural flags that stall drives. The Panthers have only had Shawn Smith officiate four home games since he became a head referee in 2018, and they are all losses. Date Opponent Result Score Nov 24, 2024 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Loss 27–30 Oct 9, 2022 vs. San Francisco 49ers Loss 15–37 Dec 12, 2021 vs. Atlanta Falcons Loss 21–29 Nov 25, 2018 vs. Seattle Seahawks Loss 27–30   Considering the how rare it is for Shawn Smith to officiate a Panthers game at all, this seems like an odd time to assign him to a Panthers game, unless the NFL wants to kill the Panthers season once and for all.  The Panthers' offensive line situation creates a "perfect storm" for referee Shawn Smith's specific tendency to call False Starts on the home team. The "Carousel" Factor (Communication Vulnerability) The most damning stat for the Panthers' offensive line in 2025 is their lack of continuity. The Stat: By Week 13, the Panthers had already fielded their 10th different offensive line combination. The Impact: False starts are often "communication penalties"—they happen when a guard doesn't hear the center's snap count or a tackle anticipates the wrong cadence. A unit that hasn't played together struggles with non-verbal communication. The Shawn Smith Multiplier: Shawn Smith’s crew calls False Starts at a high rate on home teams. He will likely look for flinches on the exterior of the line. A disjointed line that is constantly rotating players (due to the injuries of starters like Cade Mays and the illness issues with Robert Hunt earlier this season) is "fresh meat" for this specific referee bias. The Specific Culprits (2025 Penalties) Ikem Ekwonu (LT): Leads the team with 4 False Start penalties this season. He is the most frequent violator on the line. Taylor Moton (RT): Has been flagged for 3 False Starts. The Trap: Smith’s crew often focuses on the tackles (the players furthest from the ball) jumping early to get an edge on speed rushers. Since Ekwonu struggles with this discipline naturally, having a referee who hunts for it is a massive disadvantage. The "Managed Outcome" Synthesis The "Bucs Cover" Script: If the desired outcome is a Buccaneers win to solidify their playoff standing, the officials simply have to apply the letter of the law. Calling strict False Starts on a confused, banged-up Panthers O-line will consistently put them in "3rd and Long" situations, killing their drives and allowing the Bucs (-3.5) to cover easily. The "Close Game" Script: If the desired outcome is "Week 18 Drama" (keeping the division tied), look for the officials to ignore the Panthers' twitchy tackles. If Ekwonu jumps a split-second early and no flag is thrown, it effectively neutralizes the Bucs' pass rush, allowing the Panthers to keep the score close. Summary of the Edge Vulnerability: Extreme. The Panthers are playing backup interior linemen (like Jake Curhan or practice squad call-ups) next to jumpy tackles. Betting Implication: This strongly reinforces the Bucs -3 or -3.5 play. The combination of a "Road Team Referee" and a "Home Team O-Line in chaos" suggests the Panthers will beat themselves with procedural penalties. Based on the collision of the hard data (Referee bias + Offensive Line injuries) and the soft narratives ("Managed Outcomes"), here is the definitive recommendation. If you have to place a single Moneyline bet to win this game straight up: The Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-165) While the "Entertainment Script" hints at a Panthers upset to keep the division messy, the structural disadvantage the Panthers face in this specific matchup is too massive to ignore. Here is why the Buccaneers are the stong moneyline play: 1. The "Shawn Smith" Road-Field Advantage This is the decisive factor. In the NFL, Home Field Advantage usually accounts for about 1.5 to 2 points of value. The Reality: Referee Shawn Smith negates that advantage entirely. His crew calls penalties in a way that historically suppresses home crowd momentum (False Starts, holding). The Result: You are essentially getting the Buccaneers on a neutral field (or even a "pseudo-home" field) against a team with a worse roster. 2. The "Drive-Killer" Synergy To win as an underdog, the Panthers need to play a clean, mistake-free game to keep drives alive. The combination of Panthers' 10th O-Line combo + Jump-prone Tackles (Ekwonu) + A Referee who hunts False Starts is a recipe for disaster. The Scenario: Expect the Panthers to face multiple "1st and 15" or "3rd and 12" situations due to procedural flags. These drive-killers will force them to punt or settle for field goals, while the Bucs' offense (led by Mayfield) stays on schedule. 3. The "TV Product" Counter-Argument You asked about the "Managed Outcome." While a Panthers win creates "chaos," the NFL also values Star Power in the playoffs. Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers are a proven national TV draw with recent playoff history. If the league has to choose between "Chaos" (Panthers) and "Ratings/Legitimacy" (Bucs), the "Script" likely leans toward ensuring the Buccaneers—the more marketable team—secure the division lead. They won't "fix" the game against the Panthers, but they won't intervene to save them from their own penalties. Final Verdict Betting on the Panthers requires you to hope for a miracle 4th-quarter collapse. Betting on the Buccaneers requires you to trust that a superior roster—aided by a favorable officiating crew—will control the game for the first 45 minutes. Take the Buccaneers Moneyline. The "Safe" money is on the Ref. The Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Win and Cover Projected Score: Buccaneers 27, Panthers 17 The Bet: Buccaneers -3 (or Moneyline -165) Confidence Level: High on the Winner; Moderate on the Spread (due to potential "garbage time" variance).
×
×
  • Create New...