Fournette in the first? What bothers me

[332nd]

Well, you have to remember, any mock from now til... well pretty much the draft, is based on "I belive this team needs an X. Here is an X with Y stats. Ergo, this team must be interested in this X."

Meanwhile, the actual team knows that afore mentioned X has a recurring knee problem that he powers through but it's only a matter of time, also he's been known to go on HookersnBlow benders in the off season. 

In other words, I wouldn't be concerned at all until there are credible rumblings from the FO.

[micnificent28]

Don't over think this. Their are 2 trans-generational players in this draft. Garrett and Fournette. First off winning and losing is a team stat so I wouldn't equate that to how good fournette as a player is. Garrett is likely number 1 and Texas a&m blows. 

 

For those who who don't believe in rb in the first round value I say to you that the value just hasn't been there lately. Every one not named zeke in the first round has been a failure the last 7-8 years. But zeke at 4 seems like a no brained now that the cowboys and are smashing everyone and zek could be NFL MVP.

 

i think fournette is a better pure runner than zeke but not as good all around, say blocking and recieving. 

 

 

[ncsportsfan1234]

5 minutes ago, Bogart said:

Maybe not but you can bet Ron does.  

Yes because Ron's clearly In charge of drafting....  if Ron valued it that highly the position would have been addressed more significantly.

[Jon Snow]

Just now, ncsportsfan1234 said:

86 Career QB rating....  also Greg Olsen was Cams best option... Ryan freaking Tannehill has a higher career qb rating. . . He's that's including 2015. But your right he isn't a game manager he isn't Alex Smith he's Brett Favre he's a 50/50 gunslinger who won't take check downs 

 

I'm talking about investing in him with a dynamic ground game aka a qbs best friend....

I agree with you but taking a RB in the first that high is risky.  We didn't have the benefit of drafting in the top 10 for a decade to collect a top their Oline like Dallas and the Raiders did.  We have to build a line the best we can from whatever scraps are left after it's been picked through.

[Jangler]

28 minutes ago, CRA said:

Okay, so I have obviously never been big on over investing in RBs in today's NFL.  I have always believed in cheap guys running behind good OLs is the best option.  Now a lot of people are calling Fournette a once in a decade type player and all that jazz...but I still don't think the value is there at 8 and would prefer a RB later (in a DEEP RB draft).

Here are my concerns:

The last 2 years Fournette has faced 5 teams with top 20 rush defense:

Results: 0-5 record, 396 rush yards and 1 TD (average of 79 rush yards per game and 0.2 rush TDs per game

The last 2 years Fournette has faced 8 teams with a top 50 rush defense:

Results: 1-7 record, 724 rush yards, 3 TDs (average of 90 rush yards per game and 0.37 TDs per game)

Now Fournette wrecked shop and humiliated bad rush defenses.  Against the remaining opponents with rush defenses ranked 67th-126th (opponents average out at a 87 rush defense average)his team went 11-0 and he averaged 188 yards and 2.3 TDs per game.  The Fournette in these games is the one people rave about.  Don't get me wrong it still counts.  Good running against the college football field counts regardless and there are lots of examples of why you don't need a good resume vs elite defenses to prove your worth but I think it is worth discussing.

now let's take a random RB who people don't really care about in this deep draft and keep in mind this is not an endorsment of him.  Wayne Gallman of Clemson.  Now obviously he isn't the focal piece in the O.  Apples and oranges in regards to roles and RBs. Gallman has faced 10 top 20 rush defenses (Clemson has gone 8-2) and he accumulated 743 yards and 8 TDs with an average of 74 rush yards per game and 0.80 TDs per game.

Could Gallman play a bunch of really weak defenses as a featured piece and accumulate big numbers? Probably.

Does that make him comparable to Fournette? No, but Clemson is getting just as much (actually more production) from their RB vs top 20 rush defenses than Fournette is giving LSU.   

So does Carolina want to use a first round pick on a Fournette when likely a lesser pick can give them the same production? Cam is our franchise QB....so we aren't looking for an Adrian Peterson to gameplan everything around.  We don't have a game manager QB. We are looking for a complimentary piece not an offense.

I just don't think the value is there with a RB.  If Fournette was a once in a decade RB...his games vs the best rush defenses wouldn't match that of good roleplaying RBs about to enter with him IMO.  

So in conclusion, Fournette is by far the best runner in the draft. I am not endorsing Gallman as the pick. We need live young legs.  But, I think given how we don't want to be a 2 yard and a cloud of dust offense....we can get better value later.  Just like at Clemson, they get the same rush production against top rush defenses out of a lesser RB (yet more diverse RB if you were to open it up and talk about pass catching ability)

Nothing to add, just thought the op should be quoted again.

[Jon Snow]

Just now, ncsportsfan1234 said:

Yes because Ron's clearly In charge of drafting....  if Ron valued it that highly the position would have been addressed more significantly.

Ron has been looking for a differnce maker at safety for a while now.  And he does have significant input on draft prospects.  Dave has final say yes, but if they are as tight as they say they are then Dave will seriously consider it.

[ncsportsfan1234]

6 minutes ago, Bogart said:

I agree with you but taking a RB in the first that high is risky.  We didn't have the benefit of drafting in the top 10 for a decade to collect a top their Oline like Dallas and the Raiders did.  We have to build a line the best we can from whatever scraps are left after it's been picked through.

Our interior offensive line is very good our tackles are scraps...  we need to ditch the read option and get a real fullback.

Maybe push in the off-season  for a Staley or Thomas trade.... 

[Jon Snow]

Just now, ncsportsfan1234 said:

Our interior offensive line is very good our tackles are scraps...  we need to ditch the read option and get a real fullback.

Maybe push in the off-season  for a Staley or Thomas trade.... 

I'm not in favor of trading for aging players.  Sign them as FA?  Sure, but giving up future picks for aging players is a bad investment no matter how good they are.

You have to build trough the draft and hope luck is on your side with these kids. 

Now if you find a young backup on a stacked team that you can plunder for a low round pick then sign me up.

[zacka77ack]

I wonder how Todd Gurleys games against top 20 run defenses looked. We know Gurley was on their board as a BPA in 2015....

[GoobyPls]

I usually would hate picking a RB in the first round, but I'm to the point I would take any offensive player over defense. 

 

Plus Stewart is taking up a lot of cap space for little production. 

[emhoward]

The preference to not take Fournette at 8 has little to do with Fournette. It has to do with positional value and positional depth. 

If you listed the top ten players at each position in the league you will find that running back has the lowest number of first rounders listed. 

What Zeke has done this year has done wonders for Fournette's potential draft slot. But imo, picking RB top 10 isn't the wisest move, especially when I don't think he's a generational talent, he is very very good though.

[Nails]

2 minutes ago, Bogart said:

I'm not in favor of trading for aging players.  Sign them as FA?  Sure, but giving up future picks for aging players is a bad investment no matter how good they are.

You have to build trough the draft and hope luck is on your side with these kids. 

Now if you find a young backup on a stacked team that you can plunder for a low round pick then sign me up.

Not ideal but all situations are different.  LT is a premium position, Cam was just beat to a pulp and no one anywhere did anything, our time is now (2018), and the other options, IF Oher doesn't return, are bad to downright nuclear bomb level disastrous.

[panther4life]

Our offense needs a threat who can break a big one for a TD at any time. Cam played that role for years and he shouldn't of had to. Benjamin and Funchess don't have the breakaway speed needed to be that threat. 

Olsen is the closest thing we have to that now and he's obviously not enough. 

We sorley miss having a game changing playmaker to compliment Cam. Fournette is the best prospect to fill that role in our offense.

Would a Stud LT be more ideal? Of course it would, however there doesn't seem to be a can't miss OT prospect in this whole draft. 

Would a game breaking DE be a better option? Sure but I don't see one being there. Head over to draftbreakdown.com and watch all the games they have available of DE prospects. Barnett from TN is close but not worth a top 10 pick. He's too raw and relies almost completely on his first step and takes the longest route to the QB possible(blowing past the LT and then having to circle back to the QB).

I could see an argument for a safety or top corner over Fournette but outside of that he's our best hope at improving our 2017 roster with the 8th pick in my mind.

@CRAWe all get it, we don't have Dallas' O-line, so it wouldn't be fair to expect Elliot type of rookie year. We can't pass on a player just because the supporting cast sucks at the moment.

Gman has a tall order in front of him this offseason. Lots of holes to fill. But he's got  all of his draft picks and will be drafting at the top of each round. 

As far as the OP is concerned, you have strong aversion to going RB early, regardless of the rest of the team needs. We get that. However nobody is talking about reaching early for Fournette and passing on somebody we think will be a better immediate and long term contributor to this team.

 

[Saca312]

45 minutes ago, ncsportsfan1234 said:

Cam Newton needs a group game like this to be successful...  you say he isn't a game manager but aside from 2015 (outlier) he's been a bottom rung qb.

Bottom rung? He broke records his rookie year. He's been breaking records since then, and he climaxed in 2015.

This year is his first true down year. Here, let me show you how good he's been prior to 2015.