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Bust Prospects

Lout

By Lout,
in Carolina Panthers

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Lout Newbie

Lout

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For those of you who don't know Ethan Young.  He's an young Albert Einstein of scouting circles.  He takes analytics and probabilities to another level.  He combines SLAYIC%, tFREAK%, and SPARQ% scores to essentially determine probability of a players success in the NFL and he's had a tremendous amount of success with this model.

He posted his success rate for "Lower Bounder Players".. the players on this list have a 7.5% "hit rate" in the NFL. 

There are several notable players on this list including, Jonathan Allen, Derek Barnett, Sidney Jones, Tre'Davious White, Teez Tabor, Cordrea Tankersley, Dawuane Smoot, Demarcus Walker, Tim Williams and Ryan Anderson.

He also lists his "Upper Bound SLAYIC Threshold Players" on his twitter.  If you're interested in his analytics, he's very forthright in his tweets and you can learn much. @NFLDrafter

I know a lot of mocks have us taking Derek Barnett.. but I think I'd rather the Saints take a chance on him at 11.

 

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Woodie Newbie

Woodie

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1 minute ago, Lout said:

I know a lot of mocks have us taking Derek Barnett.. but I think I'd rather the Saints take a chance on him at 11.

I have felt this way for awhile.  I think he is being completely overrated by some based on the numbers.  But when I went and watched him on draftbreakdown.com, I came away praying he is not our pick. 

Nothing about him stands out to me, and he just doesn't have the speed and burst to make up for his lack of athleticism in the NFL. IMO, he got away with a lot in college that he won't in the NFL.  He also doesn't have the size or strength to hold up full time at DE, yet he is not fast or explosive enough to stand up at LB.  To me, he is a classic tweener in the mold of Everette Brown.  In other words, perfect for the Saints.

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Lout Newbie

Lout

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3 minutes ago, Woodie said:

I have felt this way for awhile.  I think he is being completely overrated by some based on the numbers.  But when I went and watched him on draftbreakdown.com, I came away praying he is not our pick. 

Nothing about him stands out to me, and he just doesn't have the speed and burst to make up for his lack of athleticism in the NFL. IMO, he got away with a lot in college that he won't in the NFL.  He also doesn't have the size or strength to hold up full time at DE, yet he is not fast or explosive enough to stand up at LB.  To me, he is a classic tweener in the mold of Everette Brown.  In other words, perfect for the Saints.

A 7tech DE prospect on his "Upper Bound" is Derek Rivers out of Youngstown State...he's rated as his #24 overall prospect in the draft..  And he will probably be available with our 2nd round pick.  For comparison, he's got Soloman Thomas at #17.. not that big of a drop off in his eyes.  Could be a steal for us.

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top dawg Grand Master

top dawg

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Too bad all these metrics haven't been around for years so that we could actually hold them to the fire. 

On second thought, maybe they have been around long enough, but someone less lazy than me will have to do the research.

I'm just skeptical of these prognostication metrics that rate players before they've ever played a down as a pro. I have serious issues with them. I'd much rather look at grades after the fact.

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Gin and Juice Newbie

Gin and Juice

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I remember a lot of talk about KK Short being a bust! Caused him to drop to the 2nd Rd. 

After the draft, DG and Ron both said after reviewing his film that the perception of him taking plays off was really that he was playing 93% of the snaps and was gassed. 

Moral?-Statistics have a place, however, they shouldn't override common sense

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Saca312 Experienced

Saca312

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24 minutes ago, top dawg said:

Too bad all these metrics haven't been around for years so that we could actually hold them to the fire. 

On second thought, maybe they have been around long enough, but someone less lazy than me will have to do the research.

I'm just skeptical of these prognostication metrics that rate players before they've ever played a down as a pro. I have serious issues with them. I'd much rather look at grades after the fact.

He has a whole chart where he has prospects since the early 2000s as part of his metrics

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Lout Newbie

Lout

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3 hours ago, top dawg said:

Too bad all these metrics haven't been around for years so that we could actually hold them to the fire. 

On second thought, maybe they have been around long enough, but someone less lazy than me will have to do the research.

I'm just skeptical of these prognostication metrics that rate players before they've ever played a down as a pro. I have serious issues with them. I'd much rather look at grades after the fact.

This guy's data goes back to 1999.

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caatfan Newbie

caatfan

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4 hours ago, Gin and Juice said:

I remember a lot of talk about KK Short being a bust! Caused him to drop to the 2nd Rd. 

After the draft, DG and Ron both said after reviewing his film that the perception of him taking plays off was really that he was playing 93% of the snaps and was gassed. 

Moral?-Statistics have a place, however, they shouldn't override common sense

The same criticism has been aimed at Garrett, who also played too many downs without rest. And while common sense is absolutely necessary, I'll also point out that your 93% figure is also a stat. 

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