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FINAL ROUND: (3) Larry Johnson vs (1) Kemba Walker
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I gave you a full breakdown and examples from last year as to why I think it's unfair to expect 1k from T-Mac this year if everyone stays healthy. But the TLDR version is we will have 4 legitimately good WRs next year, most rookies who get to 1,000 yards don't have any others on the team with them let alone 3 others, it will be hard for him to put up 1k with out the others being injured or falling short of expectations themselves, but in 2026 without Thielen it's different. Because again, I'm not assuming major injuries or games missed when I'm putting expectations out there for the season, I'm assuming good health. If those other 3 WRs combine to miss a lot of time, then yes, he needs to get to 1k in that scenario. -
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Last year Thielen had 615 yards in 10 games (had more ypg than his 1k season in 23). XL had 497 in 16 games with tons of drops and Coker had 478 in 11. They also only had only 192 of our 518 targets to get those numbers. So if Thielen has 1,000 yards again, XL and Coker each improve to say 600 yards each, and T-Mac comes in at 800 yards, you're going to say that's not good enough? Especially if he ends up with close to, if not getting to, double digit TD's like I think he will, as he's going to be a red zone monster for Bryce? Because if that's the breakdown of just the Top 4 and Bryce plays all 17 games, he's going to be pushing a 4,000 yard season as the TEs, RBs, and other WRs will probably add up to 750-1k yards as well, and I think that would be far more than anyone here could be expecting of him this season. Last year the Giants only had 2 players with more than 331 yards besides Nabers and they were 699 and 573 while Nabers "only" had 1,200 yards (granted in 15 games). While the Jags second leading receiving was a TE with 411 yards and BTJ also "only" had 1,282 but in all 17 games. Odunze couldn't get there (734 in 17 games) with Moore and Allen there, just as McConkey was able to get there because his competition for targets was Quentin Johnson (711 yards), Josh Palmer (584), and Will Dissly (481) who I think Thielen, XL, and Coker are all better than any of them. If everyone stays healthy and XL/Coker have improved, I think Bryce is going to spread the ball around rather than focus on T-Mac in a way that most of the 1k rookies have been able to get. Again I point to MHJ and the Cardinals last year. They had 3,859 yards receiving. McBride had 1,146, MHJ had 885, then their 3rd and 4th in rec yards were 548 and 414. Take the 146 and 85 that McBride/MHJ had over my example for our guys and give them to the other two and they get to 7 yards shy of the 1,200 combined yards I'm using for XL/Coker, while the rest of the team added up to 866 yards. So, if you expect T-Mac to get to 1k, where are you taking those yards from? if anything, XL and Coker each getting 600 yards seems like a low projection, so they wouldn't come from there. Maybe they come from Thielen now that we have T-Mac as the true #1. But I think if anything, having T-Mac draw attention will just make it easier for Thielen to get open and him and Bryce have great chemistry already, he's not going to stop throwing his way if he can pick up easy chunks of yards there. So maybe they come from the RBs, TEs, other WRs, but it's I think a very fair example to show why expecting 1,000 yards if everyone stays healthy isn't necessarily fair to him. It's also why I said I'd then expect at least 1,200 yards in 2026, as once Thielen leave and all 3 of T-Mac/XL/Coker get better, they absorb that 1,000 yards Thielen leaves behind with T-Mac probably taking close to half of it and the other two splitting up the other half.
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