Conventional wisdom on the NFL "run game" is wrong

[tiger7_88]

Excellent piece on "another site" (one that does not link here, but I'll tell you that it rhymes with SplatSmashFeeder) on how many coach's "conventional wisdom" about the NFL run game and how run-the-ball-stop-the-run is key to winning is wrong and should actually be flipped on its head.  This guy claims and attempts to establish that pass-the-ball-stop-the-pass is the key to winning football in the modern NFL game (a claim to which, even prior to reading his piece, I totally agree... understanding modern NFL rules, its really not that hard to figure that out).

Some small highlights:

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According to this graph, a team that runs the ball more should expect to win more. The correlation isn’t strong, but it’s there. The problem that many football guys don’t seem to realize is that this correlation is backwards. Teams don’t win because they’re running the ball more. They’re running the ball more because they’re winning.

 

 

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It is a simple fact that running the football is not a consistently reliable way of moving the ball. Looking at yards per carry will tell you that the average run goes for 4.1 yards, a comfortable gain that should set a team up ahead of the sticks. But a deeper look into play-by-play data shows that average to be far from predictive. The most common result of a run play is a 2 yard gain. The next most common result is a virtual tie between a 1 yard gain and a 3 yard gain. Over 57% of run plays go for 3 yards or fewer.

 

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It wouldn’t be fair to slander running the ball if we didn’t break down passing plays the same way. The most common result of a passing plays is naturally 0 yards, as incompletions happen more often than any specific yardage total. However, even with incompletions factored in, pass plays gain more than 3 yards nearly 50% of the time.

 

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All this isn’t to say that running the football should completely go the way of the dodo. Predictability is always bad, so it is important to toss in the occasional run play to keep defenses on their toes. However, advancements in play design and improvements in overall quarterback play have made the NFL a passing league. The best teams understand that fact and are willing to embrace it.

 

Again, I will not attempt to place a link to the piece here (since it won't link), but if you are interested in the further numbers and graphs and justifications that are provided in this guys piece, I gave you the hint how to find it above.

[The Huddler]

You cant pass if you cant run

 

you cant run if you cant pass

 

to me a good offense is a balance that keeps defenses on their heels, being unable to completly key in and stop one or the other. 

 

Ya gotta be able to run so you arent facing nothing but dime and quarter defenses

[WarHeel]

Everyone here have an aversion to CatScratchReader? 

 

[frash.exe]

i’ve been saying it for years now. we spend so much energy trying to create this identity of a running team and yet our QB leads the team in rushing bc when you line up for power running, everybody knows that it’s coming. the defense knows it’s coming, the ppl in the stands know it’s coming, the ppl watching at home know it’s coming, and their cats and dogs know it’s coming.

 

old habits die hard

[top dawg]

It's akin to "Which came first, the chicken, or the egg?" You run to set up the pass, or pass to set up the run.  You got to be able to do both effectively.  But,  being the wide receiver guy that I am,  I know damn well if you can't pass consistently and believably,  you sure as hell ain't gonna run (unless you got AD in his prime). Moreover,  a pass catching back like Gurley or Zeke facilitates both passing and running,  or can at least be a substitute for running. So passing is a little bit more important.  

[t96]

You need balance but having a strong run game is crucial for controlling the clock and when going up against elite QBs who can pick apart elite defenses, for keeping them off the field. Most successful passing attacks utilize the play action to a T. Can't do that unless you can establish the threat of the run game. 

 

And please realize that most west coast offense's passing plays are basically running plays. 

[iamhubby1]

    So...if we look at this years Playoff teams. Except for the Pats, every team had a successful running attack. Seems to me, having a capable running attack, still leads to success. 

 

    That said, you still have to be able to pass the ball. That is where the vast majority of your splash plays come from. It also keeps teams from trying to make you one dimensional. 

 

    Which all leads us to the conclusion, that you have to be balanced. You really do have to be able to not only run the ball well, but you also must be able to have success in the passing game.

[Porn Shop Clerk]

Nothing opens up running lanes like a big completion through the air.

 

[ecu88]

1 minute ago, Porn Shop Clerk said:

Nothing opens up running lanes like a big completion through the air.

 

Bersin on a go route, they will never see it coming.

 

 

[tiger7_88]

26 minutes ago, iamhubby1 said:

Which all leads us to the conclusion, that you have to be balanced. 

So you're saying that Run-Run-SaveMeCam wasn't a winning strategy in the past nor should it be considered a winning strategy in the future?

[iamhubby1]

5 minutes ago, tiger7_88 said:

So you're saying that Run-Run-SaveMeCam wasn't a winning strategy in the past nor should it be considered a winning strategy in the future?

 

    Considering that  this year, we passed (501) more than we ran (490). Your sarcastic jab at Shula's Offense is flawed. That fact does make giving you a proper answer rather difficult.   

 

    I will say, those stats do seem to back up the assumption that being balanced on Offense, can lead to good things. Like an Offense good enough to get us to the Playoffs.

 

 

    

 

    

[pantherphan96]

The run game (if successful) opens up the passing game as more defenders stack the box and leave more man coverage and 1v1s on the outside. By the same token, the pass game (if successful) opens up the run game as the defenders drop back into coverage and tend to double receivers or shade one side of the field, leaving more room upfield if the blockers can win at the LOS.

Ideally to take advantage of this you need a power RB (Stew if he was healthy and still running well, unfortunately that mantle has been taken up by Cam), a good possession/slot WR for intermediate gains (Cotch in 2015, Olsen when he's not the focal point of our passing game) and a solid run blocking and pass blocking OL. 

Scheme is important too, you cant keep running up the middle if its consistently resulting in losses on early downs. Adjustments need to be made on the fly for what is working and what isnt, something Shula was unable to do which is why we were left with many negative rushes on 1st down and ended up in 2nd and 3rd and long situations.

[panthers55]

I agree with those that say we need balance.  And average yards per play  and most frequent outcome of a pass or run aren't that germaine to which one is better. Because the point of football is to move the chains and score points by any means possible. What is better? A 2 yard run on 3rd and 1 or a 9 yard completion when it is 3rd and 10. Offenses have to be able to pass when everyone expects you to pass. Run when you put in the jumbo package and it is third and goal from the 2 yard line. You have to be able to pass from a running formation and  run from a passing formation. You need misdirection as well. It is situational football every play as you adjust to the defensive formation and call your audibles and hot reads. Imagine deciding what you should do at any point in the game based on probabilities or stats. I love stats but not to determine our offense or what type of plays we should run.

[ras977]

2 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

I agree with those that say we need balance.  And average yards per play  and most frequent outcome of a pass or run aren't that germaine to which one is better. Because the point of football is to move the chains and score points by any means possible. What is better? A 2 yard run on 3rd and 1 or a 9 yard completion when it is 3rd and 10. Offenses have to be able to pass when everyone expects you to pass. Run when you put in the jumbo package and it is third and goal from the 2 yard line. You have to be able to pass from a running formation and  run from a passing formation. You need misdirection as well. It is situational football every play as you adjust to the defensive formation and call your audibles and hot reads. Imagine deciding what you should do at any point in the game based on probabilities or stats. I love stats but not to determine our offense or what type of plays we should run.

Agree-its the element of surprise,

When Shula pulled Olsen & Funchess against the Saints --2nd & goal from the 7--WTF?

Can you holler " its a run "