Analysis - Panthers record when leading since 2015 [Update: Also added data re: record when trailing at halftime]

[KB_fan]

OUCH.  I did have the 2016 data for % of lead maintained.  IT'S HIDEOUS:

Compared with 2015 when the Panthers on average maintained 56% of their maximum lead, in 2016 due to losing 6 games when the team had a lead, the overall average for % of lead maintained is only 5%.  WOOF!

The Panthers led in 12 of 16 games, but won only 6 and only in 3 games all season could they hold on to at least 50% of their maximum lead.

[RelaxImaPro]

21 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

Yes, I fully understand that.  I only began closely following the team in Dec 2012, and didn't start doing any data entry of stats until mid-2014.

But I watched enough games from 2012 and early 2013 (and have since reviewed the data for the Pre Riverboat era and Post Riverboat era) that I fully understand how those early years created a narrative that's hard to break.  We STANK in terms of losing close games.  We STANK following the bye, etc.  So, those narratives can get set in people's minds. I've not been totally immune either.  For example: Until I looked at the stats this week I really didn't remember that we'd won all our post-bye (regular season) games for the past 3 years.  (Somehow I thought we'd lost in 2016...)

Geeze, if you started following in December 2012 then you missed all of it aside from those couple of games to start 2013 lol.  I think we were undefeated in December of 2012... won like 5 straight to close out the year and were playing excellent football during that stretch, then carried that over into what became the 2013 12-4 season.  December of 2012 onward was really the birth of this "modern" Panther team where we started figuring things out IMO.

[RelaxImaPro]

Meh, thinking about 2012 still pisses me off.  All those close games we blew literally in the last minute.  If not for that then we were easily a playoff team.  Lol such a wasted season.  Going back looking at it we could've been like 13-3 that season lmao.  Would've been rolling into the playoffs red hot too playing some of the best football of any team in the NFL at that time.

[KB_fan]

4 minutes ago, RelaxImaPro said:

Geeze, if you started following in December 2012 then you missed all of it aside from those couple of games to start 2013 lol.  I think we were undefeated in December of 2012... won like 5 straight to close out the year and were playing excellent football during that stretch, then carried that over into what became the 2013 12-4 season.  December of 2012 onward was really the birth of this "modern" Panther team where we started figuring things out IMO.

I watched some of the 2011 and 2012 games but somewhat distractedly (I hadn't been following the NFL for nearly 20 years at that point), so I did experience some of the pre-Riverboat era.  But it was only in Dec 2012 while watching Cam run for that 71 yard TD vs. Atlanta that my attention was truly captured and my true fandom / obsession began.  I did agonize through the Bills loss in early 2013, so at least have that as a bit of a pre-Riverboat measuring stick. But yes, most of what I know of pre-Riverboat comes from looking at stats, not so much first-hand agony!

[KB_fan]

Here's the 2017 data re: % of lead maintained game by game. 

Note the week 3 loss to New Orleans where we squandered a 3 point lead and lost by 21 totally throws off the season average.  With that -700% figure removed, the season average for % of lead maintained is 49%.  I'll have to tweak how I treat losses with blown leads... 

For now, here's just a very quick summary:

                                                                                           2015        2016        2017

Games with leads:                                                            16             12            13

Games maintained 50% or more of lead:                      10              3              8

                                                                                             62.5%      25%        62%

 

More tomorrow.

 

[RelaxImaPro]

3 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

I watched some of the 2011 and 2012 games but somewhat distractedly (I hadn't been following the NFL for nearly 20 years at that point), so I did experience some of the pre-Riverboat era.  But it was only in Dec 2012 while watching Cam run for that 71 yard TD vs. Atlanta that my attention was truly captured and my true fandom / obsession began.  I did agonize through the Bills loss in early 2013, so at least have that as a bit of a pre-Riverboat measuring stick. But yes, most of what I know of pre-Riverboat comes from looking at stats, not so much first-hand agony!

Ugh you're lucky honestly.  2012 was a fuging poo show on and off the field and the forum was still pretty damn anti Cam back then.  There were multiple dumb as fug threads a day about trading/cutting/benching Cam - how immature and bad of a leader he was, and the Luck, RG3, Wilson, Kaepernick circlejerks were in full swing, etc., etc.  The media and fan hate toward him was at its absolute peak during that time.  It was a pretty fuging miserable time to be a Panther fan honestly until that December stretch.

Basically, @TheRed was right in his element back then and I don't think he ever recovered.

[L-TownCat]

@KB_fan you really are appreciated regardless of the dumbasses who shitpost just to shitpost.

Thank you for providing researched content that was not required.

Sincerely, thank you.

[Fox007]

Nice job as always. I am one of those people and it's good to see you actually posted even more indepth later on in the thread to answer questions and validate both sides actually. I keep saying/said it costs us when it mattered because we do barely hang on to win and if you do the playoffs....like I maintain it costs us when it matters most we have to keep playing what got us there and there is still 0 reason to do prevent and keep our defense out there.

Besides....I personally don't care if we win a bunch of regular season games by a thread after having a lead but one playoff, NFCCG or SB loss after having a big lead is beyond unacceptable because the concept is stupid anyway regardless. Don't sit on a lead period.

[tiger7_88]

1 hour ago, L-TownCat said:

@KB_fan you really are appreciated

I agree.

I just think the "stats" in the OP are incomplete.

How many of those "wins" where Rivera was ahead at the half were "won" after we surrendered the lead in the 2nd half?

How many of those "wins" were after Rivera decided to sit on the ball and the opposing team came within a virgin's hair of winning the game?

Yes, its a results business and the final results are what's most important.

But who would you rather have as the president of a company?  An employee who consistently provides you comfortable results and return?  Or an employee whose results and return are generally positive, but are always riding a knifes edge between that positive/negative border line?

[iamhubby1]

1 hour ago, tiger7_88 said:

I agree.

I just think the "stats" in the OP are incomplete.

How many of those "wins" where Rivera was ahead at the half were "won" after we surrendered the lead in the 2nd half?

How many of those "wins" were after Rivera decided to sit on the ball and the opposing team came within a virgin's hair of winning the game?

Yes, its a results business and the final results are what's most important.

But who would you rather have as the president of a company?  An employee who consistently provides you comfortable results and return?  Or an employee whose results and return are generally positive, but are always riding a knifes edge between that positive/negative border line?

 

    The NFL is a results oriented league. Win games, and you keep your job. The only folks who care about style points? Are fans who need ammunition for their complaint.

 

    The amount of folks that care about the job your president does. Probably equals the amount of fans that care about how you look winning football games. 

 

    As it has always been, and always will be. Those fans that have a beef, will find a way to feed it. 

[KB_fan]

7 hours ago, tiger7_88 said:

How many of those "wins" where Rivera was ahead at the half were "won" after we surrendered the lead in the 2nd half?

2015:

Halftime leads: 12 

Gave up lead:. 1 (vs Indy when we won in OT)

 

2016:

Halftime leads:  10

Gave up lead: 4 - all losses.

At Denver, Minnesota, KC, at Tampa

 

2017:

Halftime leads 10

Gave up lead: 2 (won both)

at Jets, Tampa

 

2018:

Halftime leads 2

Gave up lead 0

 

Summary since 2015:

Halftime leads 34

Won 30 (88%)

Gave up lead. 7 (20.5%) (W-L 3-4)

Didn't give up lead:  27 of 34. 79.5%

 

[L-TownCat]

8 hours ago, tiger7_88 said:

I agree.

I just think the "stats" in the OP are incomplete.

How many of those "wins" where Rivera was ahead at the half were "won" after we surrendered the lead in the 2nd half?

How many of those "wins" were after Rivera decided to sit on the ball and the opposing team came within a virgin's hair of winning the game?

Yes, its a results business and the final results are what's most important.

But who would you rather have as the president of a company?  An employee who consistently provides you comfortable results and return?  Or an employee whose results and return are generally positive, but are always riding a knifes edge between that positive/negative border line?

OP took the time to do it.  Thats all I care about.

She was able to compile her stats in a legible form.  If you find them incomplete, then by all means finish the work.

[KB_fan]

Here's a closer & clearer look at those squandered leads since 2015.  Sorry, I don't have data for 2011-2014 and am not going to be able to take time to compile that.

Take out the crummy 2016 season and the data since 2015 looks pretty good.  2016 we were in a funk no two ways about it.  Brutal super bowl hangover + injuries = No Fun, No Passion = Bad Play.

When leading at halftime, how often did Panthers give up the lead?   7 of 34 games About 20% of the time.  They lost 4 of those 7 - all in 2016.

 

The next table looks at % of Panthers lead maintained.  The highest they EVER led at any point in a game, what % of that lead was maintained in the final score?  (i.e. If Panthers had a maximum lead of 14 at some point in a game and won by 7, that would be 50% of their lead maintained).

The Panthers have had a lead in 44 of the last 51 regular season games they played. (86%)

They maintained at least 50% of their maximum lead in 23 of those games (52%) 

[By the way, it's not shown above, but in 7 games the Panthers maintained 100% of their largest lead.]

They lost the game or won by a very tiny % of their former lead in about 1/3 (34%) of their games.  

I don't have any comparative data on this for the rest of the league.

[bigskypanthersguy]

You're one of the best posters here.

Keep up your great work.