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Football Outsiders' DVOA has us as the 4th best team in the NFL, 2nd in NFC

RelaxImaPro

By RelaxImaPro,
in Carolina Panthers

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RelaxImaPro Enthusiast

RelaxImaPro

Posted
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I've always liked DVOA more than most other metrics and have found in my opinion it's usually year in and year out one of, if not the most accurate in 'analyzing' the quality of a team by running formulas and doing all that other advanced statistical stuff.  Anyways, just like the title says, they have us as the 4th best team in the league after the win against the Ravens.  2nd best in the NFC behind the Rams -- yes, they believe we're better than the Saints... by a decent enouogh little margin too.

image.thumb.png.c8fdc4017a48cb723b70646cc3290dc1.png 

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2018/week-8-dvoa-ratings

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EgoDogg Proficient

EgoDogg

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Idk... I have trouble seeing the Bears at #5. That Defense is legit though, most of the time.

Denver is #7, even though they were demolished by the Jets and being 3-5?
Lions at #26, even though they beat the Dolphins, Packers, and whooped the Pats? But then again... beaten down by the Jets (but that didn't hurt the Broncos much)

There are a couple others that seem out of whack, but some other rankings that make more sense than some power rankings I see weekly.

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Saca312 Experienced

Saca312

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2 minutes ago, Proudiddy said:

How accurate has DVOA been in the past in regards to projecting a team's future success?

Not really indicative of future success. More-so should be used as something to determine the current state of the team.

It's highly accurate in terms of identifying current true strengths of teams. Not really a tool towards indicating future success as a host of variables goes into that. It CAN be used as an indicator variable, but this type of ranking will change every week just based on the results that occur.

Good article breaking down DVOA:

https://www.fieldgulls.com/seahawks-notes/2014/4/16/5617636/nfl-advanced-stats-breakdown-dvoa-football-outsiders

 

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GusLevy Newbie

GusLevy

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test     Takeaways Giveaways
Team Gms Diff Int Fum Tot Int Fum Tot
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 -13 1 5 6 15 4 19
Buffalo Bills 8 -6 5 7 12 13 5 18
Jacksonville Jaguars 8 -11 4 3 7 9 9 18
San Francisco 49ers 8 -13 2 3 5 10 8 18
Arizona Cardinals 8 -5 6 6 12 10 7 17
New York Jets 8 -1 10 5 15 10 6 16
Indianapolis Colts 8 +3 9 7 16 8 5 13
Miami Dolphins 8 +1 11 3 14 8 5 13
New England Patriots 8 +3 11 5 16 7 6 13
Oakland Raiders 7 -6 4 2 6 8 4 12
Philadelphia Eagles 8 -5 4 3 7 3 9 12

 

The year is at the halfway point so the various metrics, power rankings, etc. should begin to show some rhyme and reason as to what the results are on the field. No metric alone will ever have full correlation to W/Ls but the good ones are consistent road markers.

DVOA was initially developed as a defense measurement metric but it's clear that - at least for this yr - the metric has more practical ability to predict results based on the offensive DVOA. The Bills, Browns and Cowboys are extremely frustrating teams to watch this yr because their defensive talent and performance are so overwhelmed by poor execution on offense. On the other hand - to show that moving the ball is not ever the singular answer in the NFL - TB is the clear leader thus far in Total Yards (30% more yards than the league avg) and yet, once again, a floundering and rudderless team with no clear path to the playoffs. GB and Atlanta also are showing that moving the ball is not the simple road to Ws this year.

Anyway, the age-old measures of TOP, turnover +/-, 3rd down efficiency, etc. will always have great predictive value. The Browns are a cursed team, of course, so they are the only team in the Top 10 in turnover +/- that has a losing record in 2018 - to add insult to injury, they are in fact the leader in +/- at +12!

The statistic that actually best matches team W/L performance at the halfway point is, however, the offensive turnover stat. The chart above shows the Top 11 teams in giving up the ball - only 2 of those teams have winning records. Keep the ball, convert 3rd downs and execute in the red zone...

 

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fortyrod Newbie

fortyrod

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I like the direction, but am tempering my expectations for a week or two. Moving 5 spots in one week is a bit of a spike, especially at the top end of the rankings. We essentially improved our position by 50% in one week. I don't know the DVOA internals, but I would guess the spike follows the team "switching on" in their last 5 quarters of play.

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