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Arians: Drafting for need will get you fired


Mr. Scot

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8 minutes ago, Waldo said:

It's all about balance between the two.

Exactly, I doubt we draft Bradbury at 16 even if he BPA. We just signed Paradis for 3 years, and have a competent back up in Larsen. Now if we grab someone like Jenkins or McGovern in the 3rd that can upgrade LG AND upgrade backup center, I'm all for it.

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2 minutes ago, shaqattaq said:

Exactly, I doubt we draft Bradbury at 16 even if he BPA. We just signed Paradis for 3 years, and have a competent back up in Larsen. Now if we grab someone like Jenkins or McGovern in the 3rd that can upgrade LG AND upgrade backup center, I'm all for it.

I doubt seriously anyone drafts true BPA,.. otherwise you would rarely have quarterbacks truly go 1st.

you scout everyone and put them in tiers or bubbles of groups. Then you lay out your needs— 1st tier, have 3-4 guys that fit what you want, choose from them,  they get all gone, then repeat.

you can draft BPA that will help you from what’s there. 

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41 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Absolutely.

Mind you, in these comments, I think he went a little extreme trying to get his point across. I seriously doubt he'd ever go four deep at one position.

  I think you nailed it right here. Just seems like he’s trying too hard(in this particular case) to make a general point that every coach(or coachspeak) states at one time or another. 

 You take the BPA with respect to need. They all do. 

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41 minutes ago, TheRed said:

FYI I've seen countless threads the last several weeks derailed because of this from you.

Scot been in his feels the last few weeks, just ignore the guy an move on. 

BPA vs Need been a topic here a long team, think Hurney alluded to it in his presser a week ago referencing his first stint here ''panicking and drafting a need, or trading up to get X position''. 

I'd like to think as a GM he's turned himself around a bit, contracts extensions, re-signs, and free agent acquisitions have seemed to have direct purpose and intent. He nailed his first two picks in his last draft with us. And we were all looking at the OL at the end of the season wondering what we were gonna do, go we get the C from NC State, who's going to play RT, etc.

i know it's paper, but -- Moton / GVR (Larsen, Rookie) / Paradis / Turner / Williams

Is a big improvement on what we ended 2018 with, I don't think any of us saw that coming, the Reid extension many of you scoffed at until you saw the market. Bringing in a proven rusher in Irvin that can not only play edge as a rusher, but can play the strongside position in the 4-3 and replacing / IMO upgrading the loss of Thomas Davis in at the least regard to the athleticism, then you factor in the rush ability on top of that while also weakening the Falcons rotation a bit. 

I say all that to say this Marty IMO amateur opinion has set us up well for a BPA friendly draft, we may see some need fliers at or after 100 (QB  / HB / OL) but at the least for our first three picks we should be able to walk away with some quality talent to help the team. 

I CAN'T WAIT!

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3 minutes ago, Jeremy Igo said:

and Cam Newton, Luke Kuechly, Jonathan Stewart, etc etc

 

Most of the time it works out, but it ain't perfect.

Well to be fair, Jon Beason rupturing his achilles had a little bit to do with us drafting Luke. So a bit of need there no doubt.

In all seriousness I'm not against BPA. It works fine when you don't try to get cute. Or in Gettleman's case overvaluing one position while treating others as throwaway. Like... I dunno... DE? Which is kind of a black hole for us now.

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7 minutes ago, TheRed said:

Well to be fair, Jon Beason rupturing his achilles had a little bit to do with us drafting Luke. So a bit of need there no doubt.

In all seriousness I'm not against BPA. It works fine when you don't try to get cute. Or in Gettleman's case overvaluing one position while treating others as throwaway. Like... I dunno... DE? Which is kind of a black hole for us now.

Yeah, I think  it is more of a guideline than a rule. If you have 1 player graded a 8.8 and another a 8.6 , you should probably select player 2 if there is a greater need.

 

In gettleman's case, he chose Vernon Butler instead of either of the Henry's even though they both were much bigger needs. Dumb.

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6 minutes ago, Jeremy Igo said:

Yeah, I think  it is more of a guideline than a rule. If you have 1 player graded a 8.8 and another a 8.6 , you should probably select player 2 if there is a greater need.

 

In gettleman's case, he chose Vernon Butler instead of either of the Henry's even though they both were much bigger needs. Dumb.

My thing on Butler in relation to KK, and the DT rotation in general is that -- THE DRAFT IS AFTER FREE AGENCY -- if you're worried KK was going to price himself out of the market then we still had options like the FT, to me Gettleman at times operated with the ''I'm smarter than you'' mentality when it was his first stint as an actual GM, and in that role he had very little experience. 

I think it's why we lost Norman, and Smith (lack of experience with managing a team / personalities) that is also apart of the job, you can't sacrifice talent for culture when that talent isn't cancerous, just out spoken. 

No way in hell Butler is BPA over some of the guys we passed up even before we knew what they were gonna become, and same deal selecting three DBs after screwing the pooch and rescinding the FT with Norman. Gettleman absolutely reached for need, and threw as much at the wall hoping it would stick to cover his mistake. 

Similar to Chip Kelly's approach, in the NFL it's about the players & talent, it's not all scheme relevant. To me they both operate with the mindset that ''most guys are replaceable'' and that just isn't the case, guys are All-Pro for a reason, that 2012 playoff game vs SF even on ONE LEG Smith was still our best offensive player. 

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6 minutes ago, t96 said:

That was a case of poor talent evaluation. BPA also got us KK...

The Star / KK pair was a bit of a BPA/need selection because we were coming off of Sione Fua / Terrell McClain and whoever else was in that rotation. that selection just worked out. 

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