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Ball Security Analysis

Mr. Scot

By Mr. Scot,
in Carolina Panthers

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Mr. Scot Grand Master

Mr. Scot

Posted
Posted

With some here ready to praise Kyle Allen, others having come to bury him and many of us in the middle, I thought I'd take a quick comparative look at some ball security stats for several other NFL quarterbacks over their first two seasons.

I'm not adding names just yet (later) but I will tell you that my list is a mix of current players and retirees. Also, two of the QBs included are only in their second year, like Allen.

Couple of things to remember...

- Both interceptions and fumbles here are listed here because both are ball security related issues.
- The fumbles listed here are total fumbles, not just the ones that were lost but every time the quarterback listed put the ball on the ground, regardless of result (source: NFL.com).
- Fumbles are sometimes lost, but barring a fumble on the return, interceptions are pretty much always lost.
- All but two of the entries here list two full seasons worth of stats. Kyle Allen's full season numbers at this point would be projected.
- I included two seasons because, technically, Allen is in his second season (though in realty, his sample is smaller than any of the others).
- Beyond that though, I think it's better to look at trends rather than a single, isolated season.

So without further adieu, the list:

QB1: 16 Fumbles, 27 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 43
QB2: 8 Fumbles, 20 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 28
QB3: 15 Fumbles, 29 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 44
QB4: 27 Fumbles, 31 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 58
QB5: 13 Fumbles, 19 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 32
QB6: 13 Fumbles, 31 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 44
QB7: 19 Fumbles, 33 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 52
QB8: 9 Fumbles, 43 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 52
QB9: 23 Fumbles, 26 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 49
QB10: 19 Fumbles, 32 Interceptions, Total Miscues = 51

So what does it all mean?

You tell me. When you see these numbers, what does it make you think in regard to Allen's overall ball security?

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Bartin Collaborator

Bartin

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Is Allen on this list or not? I’m guessing not because his projection would have 0 INTs.

I also don’t think it’s fair to equate any fumble to an interception because they are not always turnovers. Might be better to take 50% or 60% of total fumbles then add them with INTs for the total miscue number.

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Mr. Scot Grand Master

Mr. Scot

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9 minutes ago, Doc Holiday said:

Still think he is a decent backup. Don’t really think he looked good today. I mean CMC and some key plays from the defense made it a win today

I don't know if that answer exists right now. And it's not necessarily so much that we don't know who he is as it is that he's not fully realized yet.

Very few players are everything that they're going to be - good or bad - after only playing four games. Allen is no exception.

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Mr. Scot Grand Master

Mr. Scot

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And one quick thing, not necessarily related to this thread but something I've seen in the general debate...

Can we stop treating the term "game manager" as if it were an insult?

Every quarterback is a "game manager" and being proficient at it is a damn good skill to have.

If you want to say a guy is nothing special, just say that. But "game manager" should not be synonymous with "nothing special".

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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Some INTs are kinda throwaways too. End of half or end of game hail marys, 3rd and longs, etc. I mean, if you're facing 3rd and long and you throw a deep INT it can work out about the same as a punt. There's also the tipped balls, route miscommunications, etc. that really aren't on the QB. The only time I give a QB a pass on a fumble is when he's hit during his throwing motion and his arm hasn't started coming forward yet. That poo happens. It sucks, but it's not really on the QB when that happens.

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Mr. Scot Grand Master

Mr. Scot

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1 minute ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Some INTs are kinda throwaways too. End of half or end of game hail marys, 3rd and longs, etc. I mean, if you're facing 3rd and long and you throw a deep INT it can work out about the same as a punt. There's also the tipped balls, route miscommunications, etc. that really aren't on the QB. The only time I give a QB a pass on a fumble is when he's hit during his throwing motion and his arm hasn't started coming forward yet. That poo happens. It sucks, but it's not really on the QB when that happens.

That's some of Allen's fumbles too.

But yeah, there are a hundred factors affecting things like this. It's why I generally don't like relying too heavily on stats.

Granted, in this case the whole argument revolves around a stat, specifically the rate at which Allen fumbles.

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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8 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

That's some of Allen's fumbles too.

But yeah, there are a hundred factors affecting things like this. It's why I generally don't like relying too heavily on stats.

Granted, in this case the whole argument revolves around a stat, specifically the rate at which Allen fumbles.

The rate at which he fumbles has to be unprecedented. The single season record is 23 and he's nearly a third of the way there through 3 games.

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GoPanthers123 Newbie

GoPanthers123

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QB position is hardest to master. A fair comparison is rookie QB against other rookie QBs.  We can compare KA to either current rookies or historical ones like Andrew Luck or Drew Brees. 

 

Actually if you dig up most all time greats in their rookie season stats you will find they didn’t start all that amazing.

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