Free Agents Usually Underpeform their Contracts

[Shocker]

A guy like Littleton is an exception IMO.  The Rams have a ton of money tied up in their top guys and cant afford him.  

[Ship]

We need to find more guys like Mike Mitchell. Cheap and need a chance to become the big contract guy.

[bythenbrs]

Moneyball

[MHS831]

2 hours ago, 1of10Charnatives said:

I would suspect one of the things about those talented free agents is, when they get there, do things go well and it seems like the team has a chance at a ring or at least a good playoff run? If yes that guy busts his ass for you. If not, or if things go south, he very quietly, very silently goes into "I'm just collecting a paycheck" mode.  I'm thinking specifically of McCoy when he came here. I think he legitimately thought we were on the verge and had a shot. After the GB game and Boger's absurd penalty on him when it became obvious we were going nowhere, I wonder if his play shows he was packing it in?

He had 15 tackles playing 2/3 of the snaps.  That comes to over half a mill a tackle.

[MHS831]

29 minutes ago, Ship said:

We need to find more guys like Mike Mitchell. Cheap and need a chance to become the big contract guy.

Yes---I was trying to think of him earlier--I think I referenced Coleman instead. Good call

[MHS831]

So--based on this---which basically says that you should use free agency to fill role players, how should we use our cap room?

To start a discussion, I say stay away from expensive free agents:

1. FS.  If we can get Boston back cheap, yes. (estimated $4m)

2.  DT depth--rotational NT/1 Tech.  (estimated $5m)

3. DT --starting NT/1 tech (cut Poe, please--estimated $9m- $3m after Poe cut)

4. TE--if we can get a good one, it would be great for Cam.  (est. $8m)

5.  CB (If Bradberry wants $13-14m, let him fish.  sign Cockrell, Elliot, and another CB. est. combined $16m.)

6.  ILB---we need depth if not a starter ($5-8 m)

Total spent in free agency (gross estimation, obviously):  $45 m ish

Draft Needs (after free agency):  DT, DE, WR, OL, CB. (OL depends on the strategy)

Priority rankings

1. LOT:  A player who can come in and compete for the starting job.   Free agents are difficult.  While Little is the LT, there are too many variables (concussion, mechanics)--besides, if Little can play G (he can), the franchise LT is our biggest need.  Daley seemed better at G too.  Thomas is a tough player to pass on in the first round, but there are some others that could be sleepers should we go with Brown, for example.   Ezra Cleveland (Boise State) is one of my favorites.  Check him out (prolly a 3rd rounder). 

2. DE:  Surprise!  A 4-3 DE who can hold the edge is suddenly a need.  Baylor DE James Lynch late in the draft has the ability to play in several fronts.  The coaching staff loved him--at 280 lbs, he is an interesting project.  There are some good decent DEs in this draft, but not many Chase Youngs.  My favorite "sleeper" is Kenny Willekes (6-4, 260 lbs, 78 tackles, 10.5 sacks) in about round 3.  That tells me that he plays the run and gets to the qb. 

3. DT:  A stud who can play in 3-4 and 4-3 alignments.  With KK coming back and a free agent NT and a rotational nose, Brown would be hard to pass up.

4. CB:  If we do not sign Bradberry, this moves up.  I think we will struggle to sign him but will bring in a free agent at about $8-10m.  who knows.  I do not like the CBs in the draft, after the first round.

5. WR:  The draft is loaded at WR, and there is going to be value throughout.

 

[Ricky Spanish]

So the best way to build a team is finding contributors throughout all rounds of the draft and identifying and signing mid tier FAs right for your scheme to short prove it deals that don't hurt your bottom line in the long run and keep the player hungry for more money...

And our GM is notorious for wasting any pick other than round 1 and overpaying mid tier players to keep them around...

Sounds like fun. 

[MHS831]

Thought this should be re-visited as free agency nears

[AU-panther]

If you think of cap dollars being = units of production it makes more sense.

A top free agent is going to get a maximum contract because teams are bidding so at best he is going to live up to his contract, he really isn't going to exceed it.  For example if player x signs for $16m a year you really can't expect him to give you $30m in production you are just hoping you get what you pay for.

Draft picks on the on the other hand have the potential to give you surplus value.  Maybe that 2 rounder playing for $1m is giving you $12m in production.

Also sometimes cheaper free agents flourish with a new system or scheme and you get some value of that, an example would be when DG signed Oher or Coleman, both outplayed their contract for a bit.

I remember reading an article about the Patriots and how they are fans of the 90% player.  What they mean by that is that the top guy, the 100% guy, the five start will cost exponentially more than the 90% player.  Basically you are getting 90% of the production for 50% of the cost.  If you do that across your entire roster you end up with more production, and yes I know they have singed a few big names, moss and Revis, but that is the exception and not the rule.  Their frugality is actually what allows them to occasionally add a guy that is truly a difference maker.  They don't overpay guys who are average or even slightly above average. 

 

[MHS831]

13 hours ago, AU-panther said:

If you think of cap dollars being = units of production it makes more sense.

A top free agent is going to get a maximum contract because teams are bidding so at best he is going to live up to his contract, he really isn't going to exceed it.  For example if player x signs for $16m a year you really can't expect him to give you $30m in production you are just hoping you get what you pay for.

Draft picks on the on the other hand have the potential to give you surplus value.  Maybe that 2 rounder playing for $1m is giving you $12m in production.

Also sometimes cheaper free agents flourish with a new system or scheme and you get some value of that, an example would be when DG signed Oher or Coleman, both outplayed their contract for a bit.

I remember reading an article about the Patriots and how they are fans of the 90% player.  What they mean by that is that the top guy, the 100% guy, the five start will cost exponentially more than the 90% player.  Basically you are getting 90% of the production for 50% of the cost.  If you do that across your entire roster you end up with more production, and yes I know they have singed a few big names, moss and Revis, but that is the exception and not the rule.  Their frugality is actually what allows them to occasionally add a guy that is truly a difference maker.  They don't overpay guys who are average or even slightly above average. 

 

I am hoping that this ability practiced by New England rubs off. Rhule has a history of  finding unloved, discarded, or underappreciated talent---that which is playing out of position or in a system without a lot of support, etc. These guys can make us better.

Coleman and Mitchell are two good examples. 

Take a look at the big contracts the Panthers gave their own players or others over the years.  KK?  did that work out?  Cam?  (he has been hurt for most of the contract-playing hurt or on the sideline).  Turner?

And with players retiring early now after getting that guaranteed money on a second contract, it makes it even more risky.

[imminent rogaine]

So ideally we would let high-priced vets walk and replace them with draft picks. Free agent signing should be cheap signings in an attempt to find value rather than big name splash signings.

I feel like I faintly remember a time when the panthers tried their hand at that and It paid off with multiple trips to the playoffs and a trip to the super bowl. Hmm Maybe I’m just making it up - seems like so long ago. Oh well, time to sign Mario Addison to 5 yrs $120mil and give KK a backloaded extension. Carryon!

[musicman]

I think that's what the new CBA was leaning towards. Paying more for the lower guys and balancing out the team. I think teams are afraid of QB's hitting the $2Mil per game range because when they go down, you don't have the talent and money around to still field a good team. Contracts have to get more reasonable letting all players make good money, not just a few make incredible money no matter how good they are. 

The point if your own team didn't want to pay you, why would the other team over pay you if close to accurate. Some times it's just the cap and you couldn't afford them. Sometimes you switch coaches or schemes and that player doesn't fit it anymore. And sometimes as the article says they want too much money and their probably not gonna make that production which is probably the case most times. 

I wonder if we see CMC take a reasonable contract (maybe 10/11mil a year with some good guarantees) because nobody will do a Bell contract ($14 mil) any more. Maybe the market starts to turn? I would love to see him stay but you can't break the bank on a RB. 

[MHS831]

39 minutes ago, imminent rogaine said:

So ideally we would let high-priced vets walk and replace them with draft picks. Free agent signing should be cheap signings in an attempt to find value rather than big name splash signings.

I feel like I faintly remember a time when the panthers tried their hand at that and It paid off with multiple trips to the playoffs and a trip to the super bowl. Hmm Maybe I’m just making it up - seems like so long ago. Oh well, time to sign Mario Addison to 5 yrs $120mil and give KK a backloaded extension. Carryon!

It makes sense.  If you overpay for an "A" player that will perform on a "B" level moving forward, you don't have the money for "C" role players, instead having to settle for "D" players. You have inflated players and glaring weaknesses for opponents to attack.

Spread the wealth, in other words.  If you are looking at a football team, paying Bradberry $15m for being a good zone CB, KK $16m for being once good, etc.  you have to fill other spots with mediocre or worse talent while your big contracts underperform. 

 

[X-Clown]

On ‎2‎/‎2‎/‎2020 at 3:55 PM, LinvilleGorge said:

The free agents I really like to look at are guys who've shown promise when they've had opportunities but are just stuck behind great players on their current depth chart. The Saints were able to get a solid player in Klein from us because we had Luke. We were able to get a great player in Olsen because he didn't fit what Martz was trying to do in Chicago.

You have to be careful with that too though. Very popular opinion after we signed Haruki Nakamura is that the only reason he's not a starter is that he was Ed Reed's back up. Especially applies to the QB position, just look Rob Johnson, AJ McCarron,  Matt Flynn, Matt Cassel..