Preferred Direction at QB?

[Jon Snow]

8 minutes ago, thefuzz said:

This is the truth.

We are very much gambling moving forward, the trick here is to go down the path that has the least pitfalls, and offers the greatest chance of success, long term.  I am over thinking about the short term only with this team.

You should because it's coming.

[kungfoodude]

35 minutes ago, thefuzz said:

This is the truth.

We are very much gambling moving forward, the trick here is to go down the path that has the least pitfalls, and offers the greatest chance of success, long term.  I am over thinking about the short term only with this team.

The path that has the least pitfalls is for Cam to return. He's a proven entity, although with a high risk of injury but he is also only 31. All other scenarios offer significantly higher risk, IMO.

Tua Tagovailia - Very high injury risk(perhaps even higher than Cam) and an unproven entity. High probability that we have to give up critically needed draft assets to acquire him. 

Justin Herbert - High bust potential. 

Tankathon 2020 - Very high risk. This is throwing a season in an attempt to get a top 3 pick, of which the success may be limited(ask the Dolphins). If the gamble works, you have an unproven QB, although a much higher potential to land a true franchise QB. If you fail at getting those guys, this runs the risk of basically rinsing and repeating for a long time. If you decide to take a lesser tier QB option out of pure need, then you may compound that problem into a 4-5 year one.

Later Round QB - High risk and a very low probability of success. Of the QB's that started the majority of the games for their teams in 2019, only 31% were not 1st round draft picks. Only 37% of the Top 15 in either Passing Yards or Passing TD's were from picks outside the first round.

Free Agent QB - This is the least risky option by a wide margin. It also has the highest price and could have a much shorter window of impact, depending on the signing. If you attempt to hitch your wagon to an older veteran, the window will be short and the team is not built to succeed in the short term at the moment. If you attempt to signing a busted former high draft pick(Winston/Mariota/Tannehill/etc) the risk becomes if they are what they have shown or can they improve in a better scenario. If you go for a high end journeyman(Bridgewater/Keenum) then you run the risk of ending up with a game managing QB that is soaking up a lot of cap space. 

 

The way I see it, Cam returning has some very distinct advantages. One is that he may be healthy, returns to form and then your QB woes are solved. The other is that he is banged up and never shows his true form again, in that case it was a one year "trial" and you are not financially committed beyond that. The last is that he returns only to get a season ending injury again. In that scenario you are basically back to the "Tankathon 2020" option. The biggest risk is that he comes back and never really shows his abilities OR he gets knocked out late in the year and we cannot take advantage of tanking. But, we may very well attempt to tank in 2020 and just simply not lose enough to accomplish what we want anyway. Cam returning has the most possible positive outcomes versus negative outcomes. I think the only other option that has that benefit is likely going with a free agent QB.

[jfra78]

59 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Me neither and proudly so.  I think the difference is not how people view Cam (on the non-scrotum-latching side) but what is in the long-term, best interest of the team.  The best decisions are often the toughest--but making them on emotion gets you fired.

It's odd that you think people who want to see if Cam can still play at an elite level are attached to his scrotum.  Why jump the gun and trade him now putting us in QB limbo, when the answer could be on the roster?

[davos]

6 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Later Round QB - High risk and a very low probability of success. Of the QB's that started the majority of the games for their teams in 2019, only 31% were not 1st round draft picks. Only 37% of the Top 15 in either Passing Yards or Passing TD's were from picks outside the first round.

This is the option I'm actually most surprised is down in votes. 

I purposely left out Love because let's be honest, that would only happen in a trade down and bottom line is Hurney is not a trade down guy in the early rounds.  He goes after who he wants. 

Otherwise, we're looking at Fromm (He's actually pretty intriguing R2 but has physical limitations), Eason (Mega arm but awful decision making and slow as hell *See: Cutler/Mallet), Hurts (College star, huge question mark on NFL abilities as a QB), Gordon (Great on highlight vids but has to learn proper technique in a big way), and James Morgan (Mystery box from a small school that hits ALL the marks).  

Honestly, Fromm and Morgan do interest me.  With Fromm--Some great QBs learned how to command the field and manage offenses without the mega arms.  With Morgan--he has (a) arm strength, (b) accuracy and (c) all the measurables.  He's the QB from a small school I see rocketing up boards into the 3rd, maybe 2nd. 

I personally love love love Tua as a QB and leader but can't ignore there's the injury risk.  Without the injuries, he's ahead of Burrow for me but a trade up for him would be such a huge gamble.  Incredible payoff if he's over the injury bug.  

Herbert is an enigma.  I can see why people think he has bust written all over him but you just never know. 

Have no issue with Cam being back but I just don't see what good it does unless we are committing to him with a new contract.  Why waste a season of Cam if we know we'll be moving on?  If he gets roughed up again, we lose all value in a sign & trade or tag situation.  So I see three scenarios (1) Get what you can now (2) Take the gamble, he pans out, re-sign him (3) Take the gamble, he's not what he was, he goes off into the sunset, we get nothing.   

So for me, this offseason is where we decide to either commit or not.  We are standing at the crossroad.  The question is if the Cam gamble is worth losing our current returns.  If he can only net a 3rd rounder right now, then I say it is and see what he's got.  If he can net a late first/2nd+4th type haul, then it gets a bit more appealing because that's decent value to potentially lose if he doesn't truly come back.      

[Navy_football]

29 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

The path that has the least pitfalls is for Cam to return. He's a proven entity, although with a high risk of injury but he is also only 31. All other scenarios offer significantly higher risk, IMO.

Ok, so I admit that I really hate the way people dish on Cam like he's some scrub, but I have to say this is spot on. 

So many are talking in absolutes about fairly common NFL injuries. 

We have a QB that can carry an offense - he just needs an average-to-above average offensive line. That's it. That's literally it. No need to overpay a running back or wide receiver. No need to bring in the best LT in the NFL. All he needs is average oline play and he can easily win you 10+ games. Easily. 

Why gamble on an unknown when you can plan with a known. Yes, even with his recent injuries he is a known. He will heal. Please stop saying this dude will be injured for the rest of his life. JEEZ!!!

[kungfoodude]

2 minutes ago, davos said:

This is the option I'm actually most surprised is down in votes. 

I purposely left out Love because let's be honest, that would only happen in a trade down and bottom line is Hurney is not a trade down guy in the early rounds.  He goes after who he wants. 

Otherwise, we're looking at Fromm (He's actually pretty intriguing R2 but has physical limitations), Eason (Mega arm but awful decision making and slow as hell *See: Cutler/Mallet), Hurts (College star, huge question mark on NFL abilities as a QB), Gordon (Great on highlight vids but has to learn proper technique in a big way), and James Morgan (Mystery box from a small school that hits ALL the marks).  

Honestly, Fromm and Morgan do interest me.  With Fromm--Some great QBs learned how to command the field and manage offenses without the mega arms.  With Morgan--he has (a) arm strength, (b) accuracy and (c) all the measurables.  He's the QB from a small school I see rocketing up boards into the 3rd, maybe 2nd. 

I personally love love love Tua as a QB and leader but can't ignore there's the injury risk.  Without the injuries, he's ahead of Burrow for me but a trade up for him would be such a huge gamble.  Incredible payoff if he's over the injury bug.  

Herbert is an enigma.  I can see why people think he has bust written all over him but you just never know. 

Have no issue with Cam being back but I just don't see what good it does unless we are committing to him with a new contract.  Why waste a season of Cam if we know we'll be moving on?  If he gets roughed up again, we lose all value in a sign & trade or tag situation.  So I see three scenarios (1) Get what you can now (2) Take the gamble, he pans out, re-sign him (3) Take the gamble, he's not what he was, he goes off into the sunset, we get nothing.   

So for me, this offseason is where we decide to either commit or not.  We are standing at the crossroad.  The question is if the Cam gamble is worth losing our current returns.  If he can only net a 3rd rounder right now, then I say it is and see what he's got.  If he can net a late first/2nd+4th type haul, then it gets a bit more appealing because that's decent value to potentially lose if he doesn't truly come back.      

Hurts looked terrible at the Senior Bowl, so I am definitely not wanting to see us take a flier on him unless it is 6th Round or lower. I am not against taking a 2nd round or later QB but I'd want it to be as a potential developmental guy(like Grier) who we can jettison with little to no impact if we whiff. I just don't want us to get into a scenario where we are planning on a later round QB being "the guy." That doesn't have a high probability of success historically. We just have so many obvious roster holes, I'd wouldn't prefer to spend a 2nd to 4th round pick this draft on a QB. I wouldn't HATE it, however.

Tua is a risk, flat out. He has a pretty high ceiling but I am not sure his body is suited for the NFL. That's something you have to factor in. Herbert is, IMO, clearly the best prospect of the bunch but you do wonder why he didn't light it up at Oregon more. I think a lot of the scouts expected him to sort of take that next step to being a dominant college QB and he just never did. That's a red flag, for sure.

I don't think you bring back Cam if you have zero intention of signing him long term. I think you bring back Cam if you aren't SURE if you want to sign him long term. Basically a one year "prove it" deal. Also, I think the "sign and trade" value and overall trade value of Cam may be limited overall just because of the recent injury history. One thing to consider is that our compensatory pick from Cam leaving after next season might actually be higher than what we could get in a trade. We won't know this information until actual trade offers are leaked or completed. 

I also wouldn't really want to trade him for anything less than a 1st round pick(which is completely unrealistic, IMO). Getting another 2nd round pick would be great in theory but we have Marty Hurney drafting, so that pick doesn't really have a lot of value. That's one thing that we really need to be cognizant of, with Hurney doing the drafting, don't expect a lot out of those kind of picks. Expect a lot of gambling and fixating. I'd rather keep Cam than watch Hurney squander whatever resources we obtained in return. 

 

 

[thefuzz]

55 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

The path that has the least pitfalls is for Cam to return. He's a proven entity, although with a high risk of injury but he is also only 31. All other scenarios offer significantly higher risk, IMO.

Tua Tagovailia - Very high injury risk(perhaps even higher than Cam) and an unproven entity. High probability that we have to give up critically needed draft assets to acquire him. 

Justin Herbert - High bust potential. 

Tankathon 2020 - Very high risk. This is throwing a season in an attempt to get a top 3 pick, of which the success may be limited(ask the Dolphins). If the gamble works, you have an unproven QB, although a much higher potential to land a true franchise QB. If you fail at getting those guys, this runs the risk of basically rinsing and repeating for a long time. If you decide to take a lesser tier QB option out of pure need, then you may compound that problem into a 4-5 year one.

Later Round QB - High risk and a very low probability of success. Of the QB's that started the majority of the games for their teams in 2019, only 31% were not 1st round draft picks. Only 37% of the Top 15 in either Passing Yards or Passing TD's were from picks outside the first round.

Free Agent QB - This is the least risky option by a wide margin. It also has the highest price and could have a much shorter window of impact, depending on the signing. If you attempt to hitch your wagon to an older veteran, the window will be short and the team is not built to succeed in the short term at the moment. If you attempt to signing a busted former high draft pick(Winston/Mariota/Tannehill/etc) the risk becomes if they are what they have shown or can they improve in a better scenario. If you go for a high end journeyman(Bridgewater/Keenum) then you run the risk of ending up with a game managing QB that is soaking up a lot of cap space. 

 

The way I see it, Cam returning has some very distinct advantages. One is that he may be healthy, returns to form and then your QB woes are solved. The other is that he is banged up and never shows his true form again, in that case it was a one year "trial" and you are not financially committed beyond that. The last is that he returns only to get a season ending injury again. In that scenario you are basically back to the "Tankathon 2020" option. The biggest risk is that he comes back and never really shows his abilities OR he gets knocked out late in the year and we cannot take advantage of tanking. But, we may very well attempt to tank in 2020 and just simply not lose enough to accomplish what we want anyway. Cam returning has the most possible positive outcomes versus negative outcomes. I think the only other option that has that benefit is likely going with a free agent QB.

See bolded, the path with the least pitfalls is the return of Cam Newton.

This could be true, but are you totally fine with putting off a rebuild another year just to see?  Didn't we do that this past offseason?

We kicked the can last year, the end result is where we find ourselves now.  With a QB yet again rehabbing this offseason, our coach fired, a new staff in place, tons of questions swirling around the fanbase, and no feel good in the way of wins surrounding it.

We played this game and came up craps again...we just gonna gamble and see what happens in 2020?  That's betting a lot on a huge ?......Cam's health....again.

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, thefuzz said:

See bolded, the path with the least pitfalls is the return of Cam Newton.

This could be true, but are you totally fine with putting off a rebuild another year just to see?  Didn't we do that this past offseason?

We kicked the can last year, the end result is where we find ourselves now.  With a QB yet again rehabbing this offseason, our coach fired, a new staff in place, tons of questions swirling around the fanbase, and no feel good in the way of wins surrounding it.

We played this game and came up craps again...we just gonna gamble and see what happens in 2020?  That's betting a lot on a huge ?......Cam's health....again.

The rebuild was coming regardless. But, when a good NFL franchise rebuilds, they don't raze the team to the foundation. You identify core players, build around them and have a plan each year to fill out a good roster. Getting rid of a franchise QB at 31 is not something we should take lightly. The "gamble" on bringing him back is having a legitimate direction as a franchise for the future. Jettisoning him basically means we don't have that. Right now, we have a directive to "build a program." Well building a strong franchise also entails having a legitimate franchise QB, which we would be voluntarily getting rid of. Just take a look at some of the most consistently successful franchises over the existence of ours. What is one thing that is pretty constant? Stability and talent at QB. It's what New England has had, it's what the Steelers have had, it's what the Packers have had, it is what the Colts had until recently, it's what the Saints have had, etc, etc. 

The issue we have had with "kicking the can" was one of trying desperately to win now and not planning adequately for the future. A big part of that has been our complete and utter failures in the draft. That is the kind of thing that has us signing Poe to a big contract, Matt Kalil to a big contract, etc, etc. It's not because we kept Cam around, it's because we did such a piss poor job of building through the draft. 

The rebuild is going to be how we draft and, to be completely honest, right now it probably is not going to be successful. We have a GM that can strike first round gold but struggles mightily in those later rounds. That is something that all but assures you are overspending in free agency and constantly fighting roster holes. Losing isn't the way to rebuild, being better at building is the way to rebuild. Has New England's lack of high draft picks hampered them? Has Pittsburgh's? Has Green Bay's? I'd LOVE to get a guy like Lawrence next season but the odds are stacked against us, no matter really what we do include lose....a bunch. Ask Miami about that.

My ultimate point is, if we bring back Cam and he IS healthy and IS good, that's one less part of the rebuild that needs to even happen. If he comes back and ISN'T healthy, well we are probably about in the same boat as without him this offseason. We are gonna suck, often and hard. Is there risk that we bring him back, he isn't healthy and we win just enough to stay out of the top 5 pick race? Yeah, that's a risk. Is it THAT much more of a risk than attempting to tank? Not really.

[Navy_football]

23 hours ago, Madwolf said:

Oh lord, the amputation talk was over blown. It had nothing to do with the severity of the injury or it's ability to heal. It was headline grabbing nonsesnse.

If you sign Teddy you due have to acknowledge he had knee surgery a few years ago, but everything has checked out since, and it obviously hasn't affected his play since he's been back. He put up good numbers with the Saints in his 5-0 stint, but was also wasn't spectacular, just effecient.

The reason people are more concerned about Cam's health is due to the amount of injuries he's sustained and how much time he's missed in the past 2 seasons. 

If you say so. I remembered something different and apparently so did his surgeon. Cam has had 2 real injuries in 2 seasons. He COULD HAVE played on both. He DID play with the shoulder, but decided not to push the foot. 

 

FLORHAM PARK, N.J. -- Dan Cooper knows Teddy Bridgewater's heart like few people do, because Cooper cut open the quarterback's leg on Sept. 8, 2016, when pro football's most stunning comeback began inside a Dallas clinic.

Amputation was no longer a feared possibility, and yet what the surgeon faced that day was something one might see on the set of a sci-fi film.

"It was just a horribly grotesque injury," Cooper said.

The good doctor was talking about the quarterback's left knee, which had exploded without warning nine days earlier while Bridgewater was dropping back to pass, untouched, in a Minnesota Vikings practice.

"It's mangled," Cooper said. "You make the skin incision, and there's nothing there. It's almost like a war wound. Everything is blown." 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24439421/teddy-bridgewater-surgeon-tells-tale-bigger-trade-bait-2018-nfl-new-york-jets

 

 

 

[thefuzz]

1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

The rebuild was coming regardless. But, when a good NFL franchise rebuilds, they don't raze the team to the foundation. You identify core players, build around them and have a plan each year to fill out a good roster. Getting rid of a franchise QB at 31 is not something we should take lightly. The "gamble" on bringing him back is having a legitimate direction as a franchise for the future. Jettisoning him basically means we don't have that. Right now, we have a directive to "build a program." Well building a strong franchise also entails having a legitimate franchise QB, which we would be voluntarily getting rid of. Just take a look at some of the most consistently successful franchises over the existence of ours. What is one thing that is pretty constant? Stability and talent at QB. It's what New England has had, it's what the Steelers have had, it's what the Packers have had, it is what the Colts had until recently, it's what the Saints have had, etc, etc. 

The issue we have had with "kicking the can" was one of trying desperately to win now and not planning adequately for the future. A big part of that has been our complete and utter failures in the draft. That is the kind of thing that has us signing Poe to a big contract, Matt Kalil to a big contract, etc, etc. It's not because we kept Cam around, it's because we did such a piss poor job of building through the draft. 

The rebuild is going to be how we draft and, to be completely honest, right now it probably is not going to be successful. We have a GM that can strike first round gold but struggles mightily in those later rounds. That is something that all but assures you are overspending in free agency and constantly fighting roster holes. Losing isn't the way to rebuild, being better at building is the way to rebuild. Has New England's lack of high draft picks hampered them? Has Pittsburgh's? Has Green Bay's? I'd LOVE to get a guy like Lawrence next season but the odds are stacked against us, no matter really what we do include lose....a bunch. Ask Miami about that.

My ultimate point is, if we bring back Cam and he IS healthy and IS good, that's one less part of the rebuild that needs to even happen. If he comes back and ISN'T healthy, well we are probably about in the same boat as without him this offseason. We are gonna suck, often and hard. Is there risk that we bring him back, he isn't healthy and we win just enough to stay out of the top 5 pick race? Yeah, that's a risk. Is it THAT much more of a risk than attempting to tank? Not really.

Here's the deal though, over the past 3 years, Cam has proven that he is not currently a "franchise QB", whatever that means to everyone.

Can he get back to starting 16 per season, not taking time off to rehab or taking vet days, or limited throwing days?  Can he play above average to good consistently Sunday in and Sunday out?

That's where we are.  That's probably where Tepper is.  We simply aren't sure if he can or not, and although we have tried for that to happen over the past two years, it's failed both times.  How often are we going to go back to the well?

I'm not one to sit here and say that Cam can't make it back to his prime, but the likelihood seems really really small from where I'm sitting.  I'm not going to bash the team for giving Cam another shot, but I will be right back here next offseason, talking about what the plans are, when we finish 7-9 or worse. (I predict much worse)

[Panther53521]

My 2 cents again:

keep Cam for a prove it year then if he doesn’t have it ... move on next year (better QB class next yr.)

use this year draft for OL and DL. a better OL would really help a rookie QB next yr.

next yr (if Cam is done) we will have a high pick again and we will have a better OL for the next QB

With a better OL and new QB then in 2022, we are back in the playoffs

[kungfoodude]

2 minutes ago, thefuzz said:

Here's the deal though, over the past 3 years, Cam has proven that he is not currently a "franchise QB", whatever that means to everyone.

Can he get back to starting 16 per season, not taking time off to rehab or taking vet days, or limited throwing days?  Can he play above average to good consistently Sunday in and Sunday out?

That's where we are.  That's probably where Tepper is.  We simply aren't sure if he can or not, and although we have tried for that to happen over the past two years, it's failed both times.  How often are we going to go back to the well?

I'm not one to sit here and say that Cam can't make it back to his prime, but the likelihood seems really really small from where I'm sitting.  I'm not going to bash the team for giving Cam another shot, but I will be right back here next offseason, talking about what the plans are, when we finish 7-9 or worse. (I predict much worse)

Yes, gambling on his health is a risk. That's pretty much a given at this point. But it's also a gamble on potentially having the most important position in the NFL filled versus being in the rat race of trying to find a QB. Think about some of the NFL franchises that are decades into a search for a franchise QB and continue to draft and rotate them through. 

IMO, it's well worth the gamble to not jump into that race again. Hell, if you want to hedge that bet, draft a guy like Herbert at 7(if available). I just personally view bringing him back as a moderate risk, high reward gamble. Most of those other options are high risk, high reward. 

I see you voted for "Tankathon" but that is an equally risky proposition. We have to be bad basically every single game for that to pay off. And, on paper, we have a lot of very winnable games. All it will take is for us to catch lightening in a bottle like the Kyle Allen stretch and we are outside the top 5 of the draft. On a roster decimated with injuries, we still managed to rattle off 5 wins before the wheels fell off.

[thefuzz]

5 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Yes, gambling on his health is a risk. That's pretty much a given at this point. But it's also a gamble on potentially having the most important position in the NFL filled versus being in the rat race of trying to find a QB. Think about some of the NFL franchises that are decades into a search for a franchise QB and continue to draft and rotate them through. 

What happens after that though?  1st healthy season in 4 years...you gonna make him a top 5 paid QB at 32/33?  Is that what Rhule wants?  Is it what Tepper believes is the best way to secure a Lombardi?

IMO, it's well worth the gamble to not jump into that race again. Hell, if you want to hedge that bet, draft a guy like Herbert at 7(if available). I just personally view bringing him back as a moderate risk, high reward gamble. Most of those other options are high risk, high reward. 

I would prefer to use this season to clean up the cap, move on from dead weight, get younger, and get deeper at D Line and O Line before overly concerning myself withe the QB position, all the while staying in the top 5 of next draft in the very likely case that we either can't sign Newton to an extension, or he cannot make it through the season.

I see you voted for "Tankathon" but that is an equally risky proposition. We have to be bad basically every single game for that to pay off. And, on paper, we have a lot of very winnable games. All it will take is for us to catch lightening in a bottle like the Kyle Allen stretch and we are outside the top 5 of the draft. On a roster decimated with injuries, we still managed to rattle off 5 wins before the wheels fell off.

This team is god awful, having Cam at QB may win us an extra game or two, but this is a 12 or more loss team as we are sitting today.  Our roster was old, but talented...as soon as the old caught up to us it was over....now we are older, thinner, and have lost two of our very best players, and can hardly field a defense right now if we had to.

Make no mistake, this is one of the worst panthers rosters we have had in a LONG time.

[Mr. Scot]

It's not just the roster.

You're also talking about a coaching staff that's extremely lean on NFL coaching experience.