Interesting mock with trade back scenario

[Peon Awesome]

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/mock-draft-nfl-crabbs-6.0

Summarizing the picks:

1-13: Derrick Brown, DT

2-38: AJ Terrell, CB

2-44: Kyle Duggar, S

3-69: Matt Hennessy, IOL

So we trade back with Indy, dropping from 7 to 13, still nab Derrick Brown, and get pick 44 in return.

I highlight this mock because in the very possible scenario that Simmons and Okudah are gone by 7 (otherwise I'd stay at 7 and draft them), I think we should aggressively seek a trade back somewhere in front of the Falcons, where we would have a high likelihood of still nabbing either Brown or Kinlaw. Jaguars and Falcons seem to be the teams most likely to draft a DT. Most people see a run on offensive tackles and receivers in between their picks. Trading back is always a gamble, but if we can get good draft capital in return for dropping from 7 to 9-14, we should do it. Of course there's the very real possibility no one wants to trade up. Would probably be contingent on someone falling in love with Herbert.

[LinvilleGorge]

Derrick Brown at 13 would be an insane steal. I'd be all about that draft.

[45catfan]

I like the trade back with Indy, but only if Brown is gone.  I can't see any scenario where Brown lasts that long.  Too many teams needing DL help for him to slide that far, even with the pedestrian combine results.

[45catfan]

FYI, they stole my trade mock idea.  I had that trade with Indy for their #44 mocked well over a month ago.   

[JawnyBlaze]

I’ve said before, trading back with Indy would be ideal for my prospect preferences. I want Kinlaw, Brown, Thomas, Benton, Wirfs or Willis. Six players in my pool. With at least two but probably three QBs going before 13, Young, Simmons, Okudah also likely going before 13, makes it very likely that one of my six would be available. 

[Pejorative Miscreant]

This seems to be a sensible trade back.  Even ifBrown is not available at 13 you can get a quality player.  Have to hit on the second rounders to make this a hit.  Easier said than done.  

[LinvilleGorge]

Just now, Pejorative Miscreant said:

This seems to be a sensible trade back.  Even ifBrown is not available at 13 you can get a quality player.  Have to hit on the second rounders to make this a hit.  Easier said than done.  

Especially with Marty Hurney at the plate. Hurney's history of failures with second rounders is unbelievable. Most teams probably have better success on average with 5th rounders. Hell, Marty himself probably has better success on average with 5th rounders.

[45catfan]

20 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

FYI, they stole my trade mock idea.  I had that trade with Indy for their #44 mocked well over a month ago.   

 

On 2/9/2020 at 3:50 PM, 45catfan said:

Here's my first mock with a trade.  IF...this is s BIG IF, SanDiego decides to pass up Herbert, I think our phone start ringing.  One of those teams will be Indy.  They are not sold on Jacoby Brissett being the franchise QB.  They will entertain moving up if they have a shot a Herbert.  Trade includes us getting their 2nd, second round pick #44 and swapping picks in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  There's still some meat left on the bone for the Colts, but I think this would suffice if they want Herbert badly enough.  Without further delay:

RD1(#13) Jedrick Wills Jr.--RT (Bama)

RD2 (#38) Raekwon Davis--DT (Bama)

RD2 (#44) Patrick Queen--LB (LSU)*

RD3 (#75*) Prince Tega Wanogho--LT (Auburn)

RD4 (#119*) Kyle Dugger--FS (Lenoir-Rhyne)

RD5 (#153) Jake Hanson--OC (Oregon)

RD6 (#184) Kendall Coleman--DE (Syracuse)

RD7 (#222) Charlie Taumoepeau--TE (Portland State)

 

 

Granted, my mock has been updated numerous times since then, but the idea still stands.

[stbugs]

1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Especially with Marty Hurney at the plate. Hurney's history of failures with second rounders is unbelievable. Most teams probably have better success on average with 5th rounders. Hell, Marty himself probably has better success on average with 5th rounders.

Hurney and Day 2 is the suck. That’s the reason we are where we are. If you can’t hit on Day 2, your tram will typically get worse. 1st rounders are supposed to hit. 4-7 rounders are hopeful but hard to expect hits.

We’ve had 6 day 2 picks the past two years and the only contribution we’ve had is Donte and he’s gotten burned more than anyone. Little is now hopefully a G. Gaulden is gone and Grier is awful. The Saints turned around their franchise to takeover the NFCS with their day 2 (and 4th round) since our SB season. Gettleman made a ton of mistakes but at least he got Short, Turner, Funchess, Worley (can’t believe he’s been solid for the Raiders), Bradberry, Ealy, Moton and Samuel. Not all of them great, but lots of contributions and solid starters in 5 drafts. If you can’t even get contributions/starters from Day 2, then you aren’t an amazing talent evaluator.

[LinvilleGorge]

29 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Hurney and Day 2 is the suck. That’s the reason we are where we are. If you can’t hit on Day 2, your tram will typically get worse. 1st rounders are supposed to hit. 4-7 rounders are hopeful but hard to expect hits.

We’ve had 6 day 2 picks the past two years and the only contribution we’ve had is Donte and he’s gotten burned more than anyone. Little is now hopefully a G. Gaulden is gone and Grier is awful. The Saints turned around their franchise to takeover the NFCS with their day 2 (and 4th round) since our SB season. Gettleman made a ton of mistakes but at least he got Short, Turner, Funchess, Worley (can’t believe he’s been solid for the Raiders), Bradberry, Ealy, Moton and Samuel. Not all of them great, but lots of contributions and solid starters in 5 drafts. If you can’t even get contributions/starters from Day 2, then you aren’t an amazing talent evaluator.

I mean, I get it that everyone will draft a bust from time to time. It happens. Projecting prospects to the NFL is a very inexact science. But, my goodness. Hurney's list of second rounders reads like a list of UDFAs. A lot of those guys only lasted as long as they did because of the significant draft pick investment we had in them.

[45catfan]

11 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I mean, I get it that everyone will draft a bust from time to time. It happens. Projecting prospects to the NFL is a very inexact science. But, my goodness. Hurney's list of second rounders reads like a list of UDFAs. A lot of those guys only lasted as long as they did because of the significant draft pick investment we had in them.

Yup, if we want to turn this thing around in next couple of drafts, Hurney is going to have to hit on more than his 1st and an over-achieving day 3 prospect.

[RumHam]

This would be step one for me of only watching the XFL. That's atrocious.

[nogoodbum]

Teams who trade up for a QB almost always are in a position to overpay. If Panthers are "smart", they can get Indy's 2nd at 34 & a 3rd. IMO

[Matthias]

I said it in another trade down thread, you don't trade out of the top ten, and don't pick up an extra first either this year or the next.  Of course this is just my opinion.  I don't see that as a fair trade, much less a good one.