Corona Virus

[LinvilleGorge]

19 minutes ago, Brooklyn 3.0 said:

Probably due to the recent holiday. As mentioned here, it'll be interesting to see nationwide spikes (if any) in a week or two from all the protest gatherings.

Fortunately, they've been outdoor gatherings. That's a lot better than indoor, but we're still going to see spikes with thousands gathering.

[Ja Rhule]

37 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

It's possible, but you're assuming people area actually going to stick with it while I'm personally seeing more and more people who definitely aren't. We're definitely trending the wrong direction on it.

I’m wearing it going forward.  F it.  I also always use hand sanitizer every time I touch something other people touched.  I applaud Costco for making it a rule. 

[LinvilleGorge]

https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/texas-governor-increases-live-sporting-event-capacity-to-50

Meanwhile...

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-cases-spike-in-texas-and-arizona-1819ce9f-8565-483a-b367-b678a607154d.html

Yikes.

[Tbe]

“Spikes” make good headlines but often mean nothing. NC has been consistently increasing their testing volume.  They’ve also been going into vulnerable areas and testing people there proactively. Obviously, the number of cases will go up.

Hospitalization numbers and percentage of positive tests are the thing to look at.

[LinvilleGorge]

1 minute ago, Tbe said:

“Spikes” make good headlines but often mean nothing. NC has been consistently increasing their testing volume.  They’ve also been going into vulnerable areas and testing people there proactively. Obviously, the number of cases will go up.

Hospitalization numbers and percentage of positive tests are the thing to look at.

Read the second link.

[Tbe]

4 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Read the second link.

I did. I was talking about NC (replying to a post above yours). We’re still hovering at 7-8% positive rate. What’s happening here is all the rural areas that had low to zero cases for a long time are now seeing cases. It’s not huge numbers, but they add up. Those places were relaxed about this for a long time. 
 

I bet Texas and Arizona  are the same way. It’s finally moving away from the cities in significant numbers.

[stratocatter]

I am near Myrtle Beach, on the beach itself it was packed, same at entertainment spots.

Surely I am worried about it locally but if any visitors were exposed the virus is going to travel back home with them. Past that, I am just a civilian so predictions from me mean little to nothing.

[LinvilleGorge]

ICUs will likely be past their capacity all over the country again by the end of June. People will cry, " OMG!!! Who could've predicted this?!" Uh... every virologist and epidemiologist on the planet. Many of whom now support the widespread protests for fear of being labeled racist. Unfortunately, the virus doesn't care if you're wearing a MAGA hat at an Ozark pool party or holding a BLM sign at a protest. As long as large groups are gathering together, it's going to spread like wildfire.

[CarolinaSock]

33 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

ICUs will likely be past their capacity all over the country again by the end of June. People will cry, " OMG!!! Who could've predicted this?!" Uh... every virologist and epidemiologist on the planet. Many of whom now support the widespread protests for fear of being labeled racist. Unfortunately, the virus doesn't care if you're wearing a MAGA hat at an Ozark pool party or holding a BLM sign at a protest. As long as large groups are gathering together, it's going to spread like wildfire.

I can confirm having read notes dated the end last week for at least one hospital addressing moving patients from the ICU because of a bed shortage. This time of year ICU admission is typically way down, not up. This is just one hospital, but it's something I very rarely see and definitely not something seen in late spring.

[stirs]

If the daily deaths continue to trend downward, then not sure there is anything wrong with more and more people becoming exposed.

Protecting rest homes should be a paramount concern

Edited June 5, 2020 by stirs

[LinvilleGorge]

I think people overstate the decline in deaths. We topped out around 2600 per day. We're still over 1000 per day. We topped out at about 38000 new cases per day (with much less testing than we currently have). We're still over 20000 per day. We're still 6-8 weeks out from having any inkling of how many are going to die from these coming spikes. My suspicion is that the overall mortality rate is probably about the same since we're likely catching a substantially larger percentage of the overall cases with more widespread testing - while still missing a lot if not even most of them.

What these spikes will likely guarantee though is that COVID has a very strong foothold going into cold/flu season. All the testing and contact tracing in the world won't matter if we still have too many cases to keep track of. We didn't learn poo from our failure to take this pandemic seriously before it reached our shores. We managed to take it seriously for 3-4 months at best even after it did. Strap in folks, it's gonna be a helluva ride this winter.

[Wes21]

9 hours ago, stratocatter said:

I am near Myrtle Beach, on the beach itself it was packed, same at entertainment spots.

Surely I am worried about it locally but if any visitors were exposed the virus is going to travel back home with them. Past that, I am just a civilian so predictions from me mean little to nothing.

I live in Virginia Beach and my parents live down in Myrtle Beach.  I liked it when tourist towns shut down because I didn't like the idea of New Yorkers (and others) having the virus and bringing it down to these locations.  Tourist towns were more susceptible to being "okay" one day and then having an explosion the next because of all of the outsiders coming in.

9 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

ICUs will likely be past their capacity all over the country again by the end of June.

ICU beds "all over the country" were not past their capacity.  That was a false narrative.

[Louie]

I have a friend that works in the county healthcare system here in Cabarrus County. This week there were only 7 people in the hospital with COVID and only 80 known ACTIVE cases. Our county, next to Charlotte, has 260,000 people. So, that’s 7 in the hospital and 80 cases. So, that’s .03% of the population that’s  actively infected? You never hear about the recovered cases numbers. I think it’s time to start getting back to some semblance of life, imho.

[stirs]

https://www-bloomberg-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-06-04/researchers-retract-lancet-study-linking-malaria-drug-to-risks

 

Like I said many pages ago, take what you hear with a grain of salt, like the weather, it will change.