The importance of run defense

[AU-panther]

Last year our run defense was historically bad.  There is really no other way to put it.

Every old school coach likes to talk about the importance of stopping the run, and people love to talk about how it correlates with winning.  Somewhere RR is smiling.

Another poster linked a study from Stanford I think that showed a high correlation between winning and yards allowed per game, but is that a correlation or causation?

Think about it, teams that win a lot, tend to be ahead in games a lot (duh), therefore their opponent is more apt to abandon the run and throw more. 

So does stopping the run increase your chances of winning or does winning (having the lead) help you stop the run?  I'm guessing it is some of both. 

On the other hand teams that lose a lot, tend to be behind in a lot of games (duh), and therefore their opponent, who has the lead, might be more inclined to run it more which causes the losing team to allow more yards per game.

So instead of looking at yards per game. which can be influenced heavily by whether you are winning or losing, lets look at yards per attempt.

Last year, 9/12 playoff teams were in the bottom half of YPA allowed.

Last year, 5/12 playoff teams were in the bottom 10 of YPA allowed.

Only one playoff team in the top 10 of YPA allowed. Titans

The two teams that played in the Super Bowl were 23 and 29 respectively.  

I'm not saying we don't need to improve our defensive line.  I'm not saying we don't need to improve our rush defense, but we have to keep it in perspective.  

Its a passing league.  Also our division has some really good QBs and WRs in it.

Think about it.  If you give up 3.8 yards on first down, which is considered great, or 4.4 yards, which is considered bad, its still basically 2nd and 6 and your opponent is throwing.  More times then not to stop a drive you have to stop a team on third down when they are passing.  (on a side note, this is why RBs don't influence the game near as much as people think they do).  Its a passing league.

On top of all of this we have some pretty good QBs in our division and some really good WRs so you need to build your team to win your division first.

 

 

 

[jfra78]

5 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

Last year our run defense was historically bad.  There is really no other way to put it.

Every old school coach likes to talk about the importance of stopping the run, and people love to talk about how it correlates with winning.  Somewhere RR is smiling.

Another poster linked a study from Stanford I think that showed a high correlation between winning and yards allowed per game, but is that a correlation or causation?

Think about it, teams that win a lot, tend to be ahead in games a lot (duh), therefore their opponent is more apt to abandon the run and throw more. 

So does stopping the run increase your chances of winning or does winning (having the lead) help you stop the run?  I'm guessing it is some of both. 

On the other hand teams that lose a lot, tend to be behind in a lot of games (duh), and therefore their opponent, who has the lead, might be more inclined to run it more which causes the losing team to allow more yards per game.

So instead of looking at yards per game. which can be influenced heavily by whether you are winning or losing, lets look at yards per attempt.

Last year, 9/12 playoff teams were in the bottom half of YPA allowed.

Last year, 5/12 playoff teams were in the bottom 10 of YPA allowed.

Only one playoff team in the top 10 of YPA allowed. Titans

The two teams that played in the Super Bowl were 23 and 29 respectively.  

I'm not saying we don't need to improve our defensive line.  I'm not saying we don't need to improve our rush defense, but we have to keep it in perspective.  

Its a passing league.  Also our division has some really good QBs and WRs in it.

Think about it.  If you give up 3.8 yards on first down, which is considered great, or 4.4 yards, which is considered bad, its still basically 2nd and 6 and your opponent is throwing.  More times then not to stop a drive you have to stop a team on third down when they are passing.  (on a side note, this is why RBs don't influence the game near as much as people think they do).  Its a passing league.

On top of all of this we have some pretty good QBs in our division and some really good WRs so you need to build your team to win your division first.

 

 

 

DL does more than stop the run, everything starts there. Not only do they rush the passer. CBs dont have to cover as long if the DL can collapse the pocket.  LBs can roam freely and cover effectively and get in the backfield.  A good space eating DT is so important to the overall defense and is why we should go Brown at 7.

[WOW!!]

I don't understand how ppl can't find the correlation when a team is top 5 in sacks and pressure.. But couldn't stop any offense in the league.. By the end of the season teams that couldn't run against anybody decided to stick to the running the ball  against us and get easy wins....  I don't even think our Secondary played that bad.. They just couldn't cover up for the ball getting pounded down our throat... 

Plain and simple our defense failed in the front 7.. We don't have a offense yet that is going to out score teams.. And the 1st thing any defense in history wants to be able to do is stop the run.. When a team can run down your throat they can control the game...

[LinvilleGorge]

Yes it was and honestly, it's gonna be even worse this year.

[Panthero]

Draft Brown in first and Marlon Davidson in the second. Struggle ovah. Oh and Shaq Quartermann in the sixth. 

[Bytes]

I dont necessary disagree but there is one factor missing from this. Teams that are AHEAD tend to see more passing. 

[AU-panther]

11 minutes ago, Bytes said:

I dont necessary disagree but there is one factor missing from this. Teams that are AHEAD tend to see more passing. 

exactly, and they see less running so their rush defense improves by default if you are looking at yards per game.

They aren't necessarily winning because they are stopping the other teams rushing attack.  They are stopping the other teams rushing attack by being ahead.

[AU-panther]

31 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Yes it was and honestly, it's gonna be even worse this year.

I doubt it.

Its hard to be historically bad 2 years in a row

We had injuries last year and we had just switched to the 3-4

At the very worst we start Short and Kerr as our DTs, that really isn't too bad, and I'm sure we will add another to either start or rotate heavily.

I'm actually worried about strongside DE just because the draft is a bit weak at that position.

 

 

 

[Ship]

Big men allow you to compete.

 

- David Gettlemagic

[Toomers]

53 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

exactly, and they see less running so their rush defense improves by default if you are looking at yards per game.

They aren't necessarily winning because they are stopping the other teams rushing attack.  They are stopping the other teams rushing attack by being ahead.

  So what are the numbers for these teams in the 2nd half, when leading? Or whatever specific situation needed to justify. Does the YPA go up because the DEF doesn’t care if they run draws? If we are downgrading defenses because they are “ahead too much”,  

   The Panthers are replacing a combined trio of Poe, McCoy and Butler with a guy who spent last September watching the NFL on his TV at home. And it will make the DEF better? Good luck with that. 

[WOW!!]

Honestly have ppl let this new passing league narrative.. Fooled them into thinking that you don't need to do the basic anymore?? 

Being able to run and stopping the run are still the fastest ways to success... You build from those 2 principles and everything else falls into place...

[JARROD]

3 hours ago, AU-panther said:

Last year our run defense was historically bad.  There is really no other way to put it.

Every old school coach likes to talk about the importance of stopping the run, and people love to talk about how it correlates with winning.  Somewhere RR is smiling.

Another poster linked a study from Stanford I think that showed a high correlation between winning and yards allowed per game, but is that a correlation or causation?

Think about it, teams that win a lot, tend to be ahead in games a lot (duh), therefore their opponent is more apt to abandon the run and throw more. 

So does stopping the run increase your chances of winning or does winning (having the lead) help you stop the run?  I'm guessing it is some of both. 

On the other hand teams that lose a lot, tend to be behind in a lot of games (duh), and therefore their opponent, who has the lead, might be more inclined to run it more which causes the losing team to allow more yards per game.

So instead of looking at yards per game. which can be influenced heavily by whether you are winning or losing, lets look at yards per attempt.

Last year, 9/12 playoff teams were in the bottom half of YPA allowed.

Last year, 5/12 playoff teams were in the bottom 10 of YPA allowed.

Only one playoff team in the top 10 of YPA allowed. Titans

The two teams that played in the Super Bowl were 23 and 29 respectively.  

I'm not saying we don't need to improve our defensive line.  I'm not saying we don't need to improve our rush defense, but we have to keep it in perspective.  

Its a passing league.  Also our division has some really good QBs and WRs in it.

Think about it.  If you give up 3.8 yards on first down, which is considered great, or 4.4 yards, which is considered bad, its still basically 2nd and 6 and your opponent is throwing.  More times then not to stop a drive you have to stop a team on third down when they are passing.  (on a side note, this is why RBs don't influence the game near as much as people think they do).  Its a passing league.

On top of all of this we have some pretty good QBs in our division and some really good WRs so you need to build your team to win your division first.

 

 

 

How many of those stats take into account 4th quarter and game adjustments?

the Chiefs don’t win that Super Bowl or any playoff game for that matter without that defense.

they got behind badly in every game and looked like a fraud.

the defense would make heavy adjustments and “shut that poo down“—Negan Ha.

all of those teams imposed their run on the Chiefs and all of them got  pancaked In the 3rd and 4th quarter

 

your stats don’t cover that part. Most stats are worthless and don’t tell the whole story

[Toomers]

1 hour ago, WOW!! said:

Honestly have ppl let this new passing league narrative.. Fooled them into thinking that you don't need to do the basic anymore?? 

Being able to run and stopping the run are still the fastest ways to success... You build from those 2 principles and everything else falls into place...

 

  

 

4 different playoff victories from last year had 131, 72, 88, and 77 yards passing for the WINNING team. Those are Service Academy type numbers. When’s the last time that happened. 
 

    If the 49ers don’t blow a coverage on 3rd and 15, this passing league would have been won by a team that only threw when they wanted. 
 

   With all the emphasis on speed at every position and more dime coverage, you can wear a team out rather quickly if their not ready for that style. We don’t even need to get into the whole “play-action” discussion, and the effects of not being able to run the ball/stop the run on the passing game/defense. 

[WOW!!]

2 hours ago, Toomers said:

 

  

 

4 different playoff victories from last year had 131, 72, 88, and 77 yards passing for the WINNING team. Those are Service Academy type numbers. When’s the last time that happened. 
 

    If the 49ers don’t blow a coverage on 3rd and 15, this passing league would have been won by a team that only threw when they wanted. 
 

   With all the emphasis on speed at every position and more dime coverage, you can wear a team out rather quickly if their not ready for that style. We don’t even need to get into the whole “play-action” discussion, and the effects of not being able to run the ball/stop the run on the passing game/defense. 

Agreed.. It feels like a whole bunch of Madden players are coming up with studies and stats now... And can't see the facts in front of their faces... It isn't that hard.. You win consistently from the trenches...