Mike Clay 2020 NFL projection

[Khyber53]

7 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Love your optimism but in the same way where you say he’s not familiar with our new guys versus Cam, Luke, Olsen, McCoy, Addison, etc., one could say that you are too familiar. We know as fans that we can value players way more than the rest of the league.

I think this type of offseason is really going to hurt us because we have so many new things. ESPN had a continuity review and we were dead last in just about everything. 47% of snaps returning and the next worst was 65%. 10 O/D returning starters when the next worst was 13 or 14. 1 returning coordinator (ST) and 1 of 20 or 21 returning assistants.

We have so much new and we are going to have a short offseason. That’s not a good recipe for winning games. I think our rookies will have to do a lot and without an entire offseason, I’d worry that they’ll hit the rookie wall harder. I like the rookies but they are rookies. Even CMC wasn’t amazing to start and there’s no rookie on his level.

I’m sure I seem like Debbie Downer but I don’t think the rankings having us near the bottom are out of whack at all. If we have any key injuries, our depth is suspect at best. God forbid we have 2016 OL injuries because Teddy will not make it. Also, what if Rhule and staff aren’t ready for the NFL game? If Snow’s D isn’t successful, Teddy is going to get sacked 80 times since he’ll be throwing 40-50+ passes a game. There’s a ton of unknowns and we have absolutely lost 2020 net NFL talent from a 5-11 team.

Also, look at the bolded comment. That’s pure homerism. Luke, Addison and Bradberry are big holes and that’s without arguing about anyone else. One, maybe two? Let’s be real and I know the D sucked. That’s why I think we are in for a long season and also why I would have rather rolled over $90M in cap the next two years (Teddy, Short and Robbie), kept our 3rd and 4th/5th round comp picks and gone hard after a franchise QB/OL/WR in the next draft with 10 or 11 picks.

You make some good points, without a doubt. And yes, this off season might be the worst possible situation for our team, or it might be just as hard on all of the teams in this league. 

And yes, it is a complete turnover when it comes to coaching. Normally that would worry me, but there's something about Rhule and company that gives me hope. It's probably that he has resurrected two major college franchises with nothing but dust and scrubs on hand. He is bringing a lot of the guys that were involved with those with him. In short, this isn't his first rodeo when it comes to starting with nothing. 

I also think we're being written off for this season by the NFL and sports writers. It happens. It happens to our team regularly. We, historically, perform well when that happens (or at least have twice before).

I am a homer, I admit it. I'm okay with that.

[jfra78]

7 minutes ago, Khyber53 said:

You make some good points, without a doubt. And yes, this off season might be the worst possible situation for our team, or it might be just as hard on all of the teams in this league. 

And yes, it is a complete turnover when it comes to coaching. Normally that would worry me, but there's something about Rhule and company that gives me hope. It's probably that he has resurrected two major college franchises with nothing but dust and scrubs on hand. He is bringing a lot of the guys that were involved with those with him. In short, this isn't his first rodeo when it comes to starting with nothing. 

I also think we're being written off for this season by the NFL and sports writers. It happens. It happens to our team regularly. We, historically, perform well when that happens (or at least have twice before).

I am a homer, I admit it. I'm okay with that.

Rather be a homer and an optimist than every year thinking our team will suck and only see flaws. 

[mrcompletely11]

1 hour ago, jfra78 said:

Rather be a homer and an optimist than every year thinking our team will suck and only see flaws. 

Isnt that being realistic?  Why put on blinders and look like a moron instead of stepping back and rationally analyze the roster?

[jfra78]

38 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

Isnt that being realistic?  Why put on blinders and look like a moron instead of stepping back and rationally analyze the roster?

Pessimists always think they are realists.  Its just not true

[Waldo]

4 Wins is reasonable with this roster and staff on a unique year. It's football and anything could happen but the deck is stacked against us this year with the lack of off-season activities, loss of talent, super green coaching staff and throwing in the normal injuries that will expose our depth and lack of experience.

And we are still in a great place because we are trying to win and not following the same playbook that never resulted in back to back winning years or championships. There is only one negative that I have with the team at this point but we have had to endure him for so long that at this point his handicap is just built in. 

[stbugs]

1 hour ago, jfra78 said:

Pessimists always think they are realists.  Its just not true

Lol, do you know us or how we feel from posting on a message board? Do you skip through life happy about everything? How did you feel during the 1-7 and 0-8 finishes the last two years seeing the players basically quit?

Amazing the hubris of some people. I’ll enjoy watching because I want to see how the young guys play. That said, I’m not going to lie to myself and think we’ve got a chance at the playoffs. I’ll actually be happy if we finish last and get the top pick because then I think we can start the true rebuild.

[stbugs]

3 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

You make some good points, without a doubt. And yes, this off season might be the worst possible situation for our team, or it might be just as hard on all of the teams in this league. 

And yes, it is a complete turnover when it comes to coaching. Normally that would worry me, but there's something about Rhule and company that gives me hope. It's probably that he has resurrected two major college franchises with nothing but dust and scrubs on hand. He is bringing a lot of the guys that were involved with those with him. In short, this isn't his first rodeo when it comes to starting with nothing. 

I also think we're being written off for this season by the NFL and sports writers. It happens. It happens to our team regularly. We, historically, perform well when that happens (or at least have twice before).

I am a homer, I admit it. I'm okay with that.

We are definitely being written off and honestly, it’s for good reasons. Some people in here think we’ll have an offense that will overcome the defense. Objectively, our QB hasn’t thrown over 14 TDs and even last year threw 9 in 6 games but 4 in one game at home against Tampa. 5 in the other 5 games. If you look at the turnover, depth and overall talent we have high risks without a marquee team outside of CMC and Moore. It’s not surprising at all. Some guys could step it up. We could end up with the best draft ever, but that would be pure optimism when typical reality is 1 or 2 rookies will be impact starters and we have a ton of risk without good depth. That’s a rebuilding team and I really don’t care about results. I’d be happy with 1-15 if I see the 3 young DL and DBs look like they could be solid in a year or two and another WR steps up. I’d feel good about the foundation.

[jfra78]

1 hour ago, stbugs said:

Lol, do you know us or how we feel from posting on a message board? Do you skip through life happy about everything? How did you feel during the 1-7 and 0-8 finishes the last two years seeing the players basically quit?

Amazing the hubris of some people. I’ll enjoy watching because I want to see how the young guys play. That said, I’m not going to lie to myself and think we’ve got a chance at the playoffs. I’ll actually be happy if we finish last and get the top pick because then I think we can start the true rebuild.

Who said playoffs?  That being said, how do you know that it can't happen?  Top pick hardly ever equates to winning btw.

[CRA]

56 minutes ago, jfra78 said:

Who said playoffs?  That being said, how do you know that it can't happen?  Top pick hardly ever equates to winning btw.

We have had the top picks twice.  Made the Super Bowl w/ both those 2 players on the roster.   Not actually disagreeing with you at all in reality.  Because you are right. 

But the top pick has oddly worked out pretty good for us. 

[panfanman]

While not stellar numbers, our passing and rushing yards and TDs aren't necessarily bad.  If we indeed end up 2nd to last overall it's because we thinks we're going to get a lot of garbage, playing from behind numbers.

[mrcompletely11]

4 hours ago, jfra78 said:

Who said playoffs?  That being said, how do you know that it can't happen?  Top pick hardly ever equates to winning btw.

When was the last time Vegas had a team pegged in the bottom 3 that made the playoffs?

[stbugs]

3 hours ago, CRA said:

We have had the top picks twice.  Made the Super Bowl w/ both those 2 players on the roster.   Not actually disagreeing with you at all in reality.  Because you are right. 

But the top pick has oddly worked out pretty good for us. 

Exactly, except you are just a hair off. We’ve had two dismal teams/seasons that led to us getting the #2 and #1 overall picks followed by the second year of rebuild with us getting top 10 picks. We got Peppers and Gross and Cam and Luke. I just can’t believe how many people don’t want to jump back in the water. Third times the charm, maybe we’ll win it this time. The top QBs in the 2021 class appear to be well above most years. I want to get one in a bad way. I’d hate to see us Rudy ourselves into a  meh pick. Oh well, I’m a pessimist so here’s to 7-9 and years of mediocrity!

[Khyber53]

18 hours ago, stbugs said:

We are definitely being written off and honestly, it’s for good reasons. Some people in here think we’ll have an offense that will overcome the defense. Objectively, our QB hasn’t thrown over 14 TDs and even last year threw 9 in 6 games but 4 in one game at home against Tampa. 5 in the other 5 games. If you look at the turnover, depth and overall talent we have high risks without a marquee team outside of CMC and Moore. It’s not surprising at all. Some guys could step it up. We could end up with the best draft ever, but that would be pure optimism when typical reality is 1 or 2 rookies will be impact starters and we have a ton of risk without good depth. That’s a rebuilding team and I really don’t care about results. I’d be happy with 1-15 if I see the 3 young DL and DBs look like they could be solid in a year or two and another WR steps up. I’d feel good about the foundation.

Still, it's a long off season, much can happen, or nothing at all (literally this year) and no one knows how things will go. Rather than carry the heavy, dolorous weight of low expectations, why not just go into it with a "Hey, it's a totally new regime, let's see how this goes" attitude? 

The results may be the same, but sheesh, I'll be a slightly happier person during all of the strife, uncertainty and difficulty that the real world is throwing at us now. Football is my escape, I won't make it one of my oppressors.

[stbugs]

58 minutes ago, Khyber53 said:

Still, it's a long off season, much can happen, or nothing at all (literally this year) and no one knows how things will go. Rather than carry the heavy, dolorous weight of low expectations, why not just go into it with a "Hey, it's a totally new regime, let's see how this goes" attitude? 

The results may be the same, but sheesh, I'll be a slightly happier person during all of the strife, uncertainty and difficulty that the real world is throwing at us now. Football is my escape, I won't make it one of my oppressors.

Don’t worry. I’ll enjoy it. Sometimes it’s better to not have high expectations and get them dashed. I know what we have and what we don’t. I’m not even going to worry about playoffs. I want to see coaching making good moves and young guys doing well. That said, I’m not going to pump up my expectations like some to think we'll have a great DL and secondary knowing that they are counting on two to four rookies, a 2nd year guy, a cast off and a vet who missed a year. I just want to see improvements and potential.

Low expectations doesn’t have to be some unbearable weight. It just means no need to worry about the final results. Have you ever watched a movie that got meh reviews and you were pleasantly surprised and enjoyed it? Same with hearing about the best movie ever and being disappointed because it wasn’t as good as expected.

You are trying to equate not worrying about results (and hoping for a franchise QB) to high expectations where you are miserable the whole time while they disappoint. I watch preseason games every year and follow camp battles. I wouldn’t do that if I was miserable.