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Devin White... Micah Parsons

musicman

By musicman,
in Carolina Panthers

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

 

#8 pick is about $3.7m a year.

10th highest paid ILB, $11.8m

10th highest paid edge, $17m

Do you want to replace a $11.8m FA or a $17m FA for $3.7m?  Replacing the edge saves you about 50% more cap space.

This doesn't even factor in the idea that the edge rusher is more valuable to adding wins to your team than the MLB, that's an entirely different discussion, this is just purely looking at replacement cost in free agency.

On a side note, 10th RB is about $8m.  Being right 1/2 on edge rusher is almost equal to being right 2/2 if you are drafting a LB and RB.

If you draft high value positions you don't have to be right as often, you can use your money saved to fill spots in free agency. 

After the 1st round the chances of actually finding an above average player are so small you ignore this and start drafting guys you think can actually work out.

Also in the first round the really early picks are paid so much more that you really need to consider positional value.  For example the 3rd pick is almost $6m a year, if you draft a RB he is already almost a top 10 paid player at his position.  You have basically lost the one huge advantage of draft picks, cheap value.

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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Just now, kungfoodude said:

Honestly, even guys like Barkley and CMC aren't likely to be franchise changing players and the positional value is low. Even freaks like Peterson or Henry are only capable of elevating a team so much. 

I hope we as a franchise can finally move into the modern era of NFL football. This will be the first draft in a long time where I have that hope. 

Yeah, I wouldn't argue too hard against simply saying RBs as a whole should be on the "not in the top 10" list.

 

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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Just now, Panther Believer said:

People want to talk about positional value until they're blue in the face. Parsons is a sure fire baller, so if the QB we want is off the board and he's there, I would not be mad at all with getting him.

Like Aaron Curry was? That type of sure fire baller? Best overall player in the draft, right? Safest player in the draft, right? I mean, that's what everyone said leading up to the draft.

People really need to get past this "sure thing" stuff. There are no sure things in the draft.

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Panther Believer Apprentice

Panther Believer

Posted
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4 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Like Aaron Curry was? That type of sure fire baller? Best overall player in the draft, right? Safest player in the draft, right? I mean, that's what everyone said leading up to the draft.

People really need to get past this "sure thing" stuff. There are no sure things in the draft.

I rarely say that, I have watched extensive film on every 1st round prospect for the past 3 years. I know saying someone is a sure fire baller is bold, but this guy is a freak and isn't some type of tweener athlete like Simmons who everyone on this board wanted last year. Just hold me to it and I'll eat crow if I'm wrong, never scared to.

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AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

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9 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Yeah, I wouldn't argue too hard against simply saying RBs as a whole should be on the "not in the top 10" list.

 

I agree.  I think sometimes with drafting you are better off with just "hard" rules.  Chasing exceptions tend to get teams in trouble.

 

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AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

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2 minutes ago, Panther Believer said:

I rarely say that, I have watched extensive film on every 1st round prospect for the past 3 years. I know saying someone is a sure fire baller is bold, but this guy is a freak and isn't some type of tweener athlete like Simmons who everyone on this board wanted last year. Just hold me to it and I'll eat crow if I'm wrong, never scared to.

Even if he is a baller that still doesn't make the pick the best one.  Maybe the guy that goes after his is also a baller but at a more valuable position.

 

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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3 minutes ago, trueblade said:

Middle linebackers are like rims. They are the finishing touch. Putting really nice rims (LB) on a car with a lousy engine (QB) or a bum transmission (OL), or a rusty chassis (DL/CB) is a complete waste.

Yep. I am okay taking a MLB with a top 15 pick in 3-4 years if our franchise building is going fantastic. If not.....we can probably get a good starting MLB in the 2nd-4th round. 

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SCO96 Veteran

SCO96

Posted
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1 minute ago, Panther Believer said:

I rarely say that, I have watched extensive film on every 1st round prospect for the past 3 years. I know saying someone is a sure fire baller is bold, but this guy is a freak and isn't some type of tweener athlete like Simmons who everyone on this board wanted last year. Just hold me to it and I'll eat crow if I'm wrong, never scared to.

I haven't watched enough NCAA football to know who the top LBs are for the 2021 draft so I can't argue with you. I am willing to say that sometimes one guy can make a difference. If this guy turns out to impact games like Jack Lamber or Ray Lewis I think we could all live with that.

I admire your willingness to stand by your opinion. Some of us on the forum have experienced some push back when we say we're not sold on any of the QB's in the draft after Lawrence comes off the board at number 1. I know Teddy definitely isn't our franchise QB for the 20's, but I'm not sure Fields, Lance, or Wilson is the answer either. I wouldn't be devastated if they were all gone by the time we're on the clock because I don't think the fate of the franchise rest on getting a QB in the top 8 of this particular draft.

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AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

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36 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Bingo. There's certain positions that should pretty much just be off the board in the top 10. Interior OL, in the box safeties, two down players (think RBs who aren't receiving threats or our run stopping DL), and yeah non-pass rushing LBs are there too. Sure, if you get a Luke caliber player the pick will prove worth it but you can't count on a guy being a GOAT level player.

People forgot that Luke also played a position what was extremely important in the system we ran.  In a Tampa-2 style defense the MLB often has deep 3rd coverage responsibility.  Luke had a lot of influence in the passing defense, that is where a lot of his value was.  

MLB might not really be as influential in the defense we run now.  Positional value can heavily be influenced by scheme, we might already have our Kuechly with Chinn. 

This staff might value LB like our old staff did safety.

 

 

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