Will CMC return to form in 2021?

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, Adb6368 said:

The good news is he seems to understand the shelf life of a rb and limits hits where he can. I don’t recall ever seeing him getting blindsided or stood up.

And a lot of his usage are the dink and dunks where he either gains a few yards and runs out of bounds or turns it into a huge gain. 

True, he isn't taking quite the beating of a guy like Henry or Elliott. Still, he takes a lot of beating. That's why RB's have such a short shelf life, the repeated beatings take their toll.

[TheCasillas]

14 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

He also had 731 touches in three years in college. That is only behind Hunt(855 in 4 years), Chubb(789 in 4 years), and Cook(766 in three years). 

Remember, that mileage matters too. That is why I say EXTREMELY high mileage. Notice that the other high usage three year back on my list is also an injury plagued guy. 

Guys like Zeke and Henry will absolutely start breaking down(Elliott already is). It's just tough to keep taking that kind of pounding in the NFL. Not everyone can be Frank Gore or Adrian Peterson. Those guys are outliers for a reason. 

How is that extremely high if that is the norm? Do we have a metric for what is regular amount of touches from college to pro? What you just shared is that the best backs in the league have gotten the ball their entire career around the same amount of times. If we don't have anything to measure them against, how can we give them a value of volume?

You'd think scouts and coaches would be like "oh man he touched the ball too many times in college, he will break down. Dont draft him" - with this logic.

Edited February 21, 2021 by TheCasillas

[ncsfinest21]

He will be fine. IMO, I find it great that he didnt play much this season. Albeit due to injury, I dont see him as injury prone. Most players do get injured but it was a toe and a shoulder. If it were a ACL, broken leg something like that then yea. But I see it as we gave him another year in the league. We werent going to go to teh SB last year. We had new players and young but great talent but experience was not there. You put him back in next year with more experience be, better QB better line and Mike Davis to spare him a bit. You got a quality team that can be well rested for a long run.

[kungfoodude]

4 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

How is that extremely high if that is the norm? Do we have a metric for what is regular amount of touches from college to pro? What you just shared is that the best backs in the league have gotten the ball their entire career around the same amount of times. If we don't have anything to measure them against, how can we give them a value of volume?

You'd think scouts and coaches would be like "oh man he touched the ball too many times in college, he will break down. Dont draft him" - with this logic.

RB has the shortest average career span in the NFL. It's not a matter of "don't draft this guy because of high mileage." It's a matter of don't sign huge contract extensions for a position with a very short career span. That doesn't mean that you shouldn't attempt to draft good RB's but you probably shouldn't pay top tier money(the track record of those players in the past 10 years has been pretty terrible) and you shouldn't plan on 7-10 years of top level production. That just doesn't really happen very often. 

I was very against signing CMC to the deal we did at the time because of a multitude of factors. Also including the move away from feature backs in the NFL(lessening the overall value of the position), the ease of finding productive backs in free agency or the draft and the dramatic shift over the past 15+ years to the league being much more passing based/QB centric. 

It has nothing to do with him not being an elite player, which he absolutely is. It's just the value of having an elite player at RB is far lower than at QB, WR, DE, OT, etc. 

 

As for the more comprehensive data on "college and NFL mileage." I think that is something we would have to compile. It's possible to do and include things like average career length, injury history, etc. It would take some significant time if the pool or sample size is larger than maybe 5 years.

[TheMaulClaw]

1 hour ago, kungfoodude said:

He also had 731 touches in three years in college. That is only behind Hunt(855 in 4 years), Chubb(789 in 4 years), and Cook(766 in three years). 

Remember, that mileage matters too. That is why I say EXTREMELY high mileage. Notice that the other high usage three year back on my list is also an injury plagued guy. 

Guys like Zeke and Henry will absolutely start breaking down(Elliott already is). It's just tough to keep taking that kind of pounding in the NFL. Not everyone can be Frank Gore or Adrian Peterson. Those guys are outliers for a reason. 

CMC is like 24...he will be alright. He has 3 great years left.

[MechaZain]

He's never missed this much time so we're in uncharted waters, but he's young and a workout warrior so I'm not worried about it.

[kungfoodude]

20 minutes ago, TheMaulClaw said:

CMC is like 24...he will be alright. He has 3 great years left.

We should know after 2021. If he suffers through another injury plagued season, I think you have your answer. If he can come back and play a full slate(or at least 14 games), it was just a blip on the radar of what we have to hope is a long career. 

[AceBoogie]

1 hour ago, kungfoodude said:

He also had 731 touches in three years in college. That is only behind Hunt(855 in 4 years), Chubb(789 in 4 years), and Cook(766 in three years). 

Remember, that mileage matters too. That is why I say EXTREMELY high mileage. Notice that the other high usage three year back on my list is also an injury plagued guy. 

Guys like Zeke and Henry will absolutely start breaking down(Elliott already is). It's just tough to keep taking that kind of pounding in the NFL. Not everyone can be Frank Gore or Adrian Peterson. Those guys are outliers for a reason. 

Well Adrian Peterson is just broke so he doesn’t have a choice but to keep playing. 

[mrcompletely11]

1 hour ago, kungfoodude said:

He also had 731 touches in three years in college. That is only behind Hunt(855 in 4 years), Chubb(789 in 4 years), and Cook(766 in three years). 

Remember, that mileage matters too. That is why I say EXTREMELY high mileage. Notice that the other high usage three year back on my list is also an injury plagued guy. 

Guys like Zeke and Henry will absolutely start breaking down(Elliott already is). It's just tough to keep taking that kind of pounding in the NFL. Not everyone can be Frank Gore or Adrian Peterson. Those guys are outliers for a reason. 

Elliot broke down in real time right before our eyes last season.  It happens.  Thats why you never ever pay top dollar for a RB. 

[mrcompletely11]

14 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

We should know after 2021. If he suffers through another injury plagued season, I think you have your answer. If he can come back and play a full slate(or at least 14 games), it was just a blip on the radar of what we have to hope is a long career. 

He had over 700 touches in 18 and 19.  Thats a poo load of touches for any player.  And that is why IMO he got hurt this year. 

[kungfoodude]

32 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

He had over 700 touches in 18 and 19.  Thats a poo load of touches for any player.  And that is why IMO he got hurt this year. 

I agree. I think the workload is probably the culprit for his injury issues. We will see what happens in the long term. 

Let's hope we are either wrong or he is an outlier. 

[TrevorLaurenceTime22]

Hes 24 and none of the "injuries" were very serious.... I can almost guarantee you he plays through them if we were in a postion to contend... 

[Sheldonyoung]

Yea for the Texans 

[kungfoodude]

16 hours ago, TrevorLaurenceTime22 said:

Hes 24 and none of the "injuries" were very serious.... I can almost guarantee you he plays through them if we were in a postion to contend... 

You don't play through a high ankle sprain or an AC separation(depending on what grade). 

That isn't smart for him or the team, regardless of the postion the team had been in.