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Could we be sleeping on Mac Jones? Charlie Weiss says YES.


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23 minutes ago, Rags said:

Dudes the most mechanically sound QB behind Lawrence. Makes NFL throws on the regular and has great pocket presence. Scouting the player and not the helmet he's easily better than McCarron and way more polished than someone like Daniel Jones, Mitch Tribusky and Blake Bottles. He's a first round QB easy.

I'd say the asking price of QBs make him worth a top 10 pick. He has a higher ceiling than QBs that got this kind of rise like Ponder, Dalton, etc. But I get the question marks, but I think they're overblown a tad with the hype around pocket presence.

Is he a better prospect that Fields, Wilson, Lawrence and Lance? Athletically no, not even close. But I think people parrot his weakpoints and over look how his play was just as vital to that Albama offense this season. He's a damn good QB.

 As I said earlier, I've only seen him play twice and I didn't see anything to set off any red flags. He definitely seem to be better than a couple of the QB's that preceded him at BAMA and some of the guys you listed above. I enjoyed reading your post. You seem well informed. 

I'm skeptical about BAMA QB's in general. I can't put my finger on it, but for some reason I think this guy may be the exception. If he goes to a team with good coaching and solid O-line, he could end up being the 2nd best QB in the 2021 draft class. 

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Just now, kungfoodude said:

We don't have gambling room. That second round pick could easily be an 8 year starter on our OL versus a 4 year backup QB that signs elsewhere to be a backup.

The history of non-first round QB's is not kind. It's fun to point out the outliers but they are that precisely for that reason, they are remarkable. 

How did that Will Grier gamble work out? Jimmy Clausen? Pike? LeFors? Fasani? Wienke? Colquitt? 

Those are just OUR non-first round QB's. The rest of the league isn't too far off.

just my preference, if you don't have a QB, you have to buy well priced lotto tickets sometimes. 

The history of non-first round QBs is not kind.  I agree.  But the first round is not that much kinder IMO. 

and if you make a list of the GOATs?  I'd say non-first rounders would stack up as the most impressive list. 

 

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8 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

Mac Jones could end up being the next Tom Brady with his accuracy and "winning ways", but he also seems to a bit similar to Teddy, which we seem to be looking for something different.

 

 

Tom Brady is Tom Brady because he is probably the biggest competitor to play in the NFL in the past 40 years.

Tons of QB's have had Tom Brady's physical skills or better over the past 30 years but there is only one Tom Brady. 

Mac Jones is pretty similar to a lot of the backup QB's in the NFL currently. So unless you believe he is an elite level competitor or has elite intangibles, there isn't a big reason to draft a guy like him.

Mostly average to slightly above average attributes for a prospect.

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3 minutes ago, CRA said:

just my preference, if you don't have a QB, you have to buy well priced lotto tickets sometimes. 

The history of non-first round QBs is not kind.  I agree.  But the first round is not that much kinder IMO. 

and if you make a list of the GOATs?  I'd say non-first rounders would stack up as the most impressive list. 

 

The first round is far kinder statistically. This has been something that had been looked at by more than one source and the statistics bear out that first round QB's have greater career success on average. That shouldn't be a surprise, as they are typically widely regarded as better prospects.

I am not interested in a non-first round QB this season not only because those prospects are not likely to be any better than what we have now but because we are a team with many needs and "wishing and hoping" in the second round is sort of what our past GM was famous for.

This is an extremely deep OL draft, take a guy that can replace replace 3-4 starters that will be gone from that unit. Or take any number of othet positions we have big two deep needs(TE, DE, DT, LB, S, CB, etc).

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Just now, kungfoodude said:

The first round is far kinder statistically. This has been something that had been looked at by more than one source and the statistics bear out that first round QB's have greater career success on average. That shouldn't be a surprise, as they are typically widely regarded as better prospects.

I am not interested in a non-first round QB this season not only because those prospects are not likely to be any better than what we have now but because we are a team with many needs and "wishing and hoping" in the second round is sort of what our past GM was famous for.

This is an extremely deep OL draft, take a guy that can replace replace 3-4 starters that will be gone from that unit. Or take any number of othet positions we have big two deep needs(TE, DE, DT, LB, S, CB, etc).

very true.  People love to look at the just the first round QBs and conclude that the chance of being right is low, which it is, but you have to take the time to compare it to the other rounds.

Maybe the chance of a 1st round QB is only 20%, seems low, but maybe the chance of a later round QB is only 2%.  That means you are 10 times more likely to be right in the first.  

A team that is constantly trying to beat the odds in the later rounds usually  just ends up wasting draft picks that could have been used on players that had a realistic chance of working out.

 

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4 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

This is an extremely deep OL draft, take a guy that can replace replace 3-4 starters that will be gone from that unit. Or take any number of othet positions we have big two deep needs(TE, DE, DT, LB, S, CB, etc).

I agree with everything in this post. You seem to be of the opinion that we "may" be better off not attempting to address the QB situation in the first round and instead fill the most urgent needs. I personally wouldn't offended if we took the best player at any of the positions you listed at 8 with the exception of Safety.

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Just now, kungfoodude said:

The first round is far kinder statistically. This has been something that had been looked at by more than one source and the statistics bear out that first round QB's have greater career success on average. That shouldn't be a surprise, as they are typically widely regarded as better prospects.

I am not interested in a non-first round QB this season not only because those prospects are not likely to be any better than what we have now but because we are a team with many needs and "wishing and hoping" in the second round is sort of what our past GM was famous for.

This is an extremely deep OL draft, take a guy that can replace replace 3-4 starters that will be gone from that unit. Or take any number of othet positions we have big two deep needs(TE, DE, DT, LB, S, CB, etc).

well, yeah, math favors the the first round vs the collective next 6.   

But the overwhelming majority of teams that drafted a QB in the first round since 2000 drafted a bust.  And better QBs were found in almost every draft in later rounds. 

But I get being risk adverse and especially when every lotto ticket we have bought has been a dud....I just don't have a problem with a QB lotto ticket in later rounds when you don't have one.    

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4 minutes ago, SCO96 said:

I agree with everything in this post. You seem to be of the opinion that we "may" be better off not attempting to address the QB situation in the first round and instead fill the most urgent needs. I personally wouldn't offended if we took the best player at any of the positions you listed at 8 with the exception of Safety.

I think we need to either pursue Watson or trade up if we like a couple of these top 4 QB's. Otherwise, stand pat and take the best OL/CB/WR available at 8 and then fill out roster needs the rest of the draft.

I am not a fan of gambling on lower tier QB prospects like Jones or Trask. If you gamble, gamble big like Lance or Fields or Wilson. 

I would also like to see us avoid making typical Hurney mistakes(like taking a LB or RB in the top 10). 

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5 minutes ago, CRA said:

well, yeah, math favors the the first round vs the collective next 6.   

But the overwhelming majority of teams that drafted a QB in the first round since 2000 drafted a bust.  And better QBs were found in almost every draft in later rounds. 

But I get being risk adverse and especially when every lotto ticket we have bought has been a dud....I just don't have a problem with a QB lotto ticket in later rounds when you don't have one.    

I have seen breakdowns of each round the the further you go into the draft, the lower the likelihood of getting a long term starter or effective player basically by the round. Frankly, after about the 3rd round the success rates drop drastically across the board. Rather unsurprisingly, I believe the position with the greatest success in the first three rounds was OL and DL.

 

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If we don't trade for Desean Watson and Wilson and Fields is already gone when we pick at 8. I might would draft Mac Jones. The kid just won. He hit receivers in stride and made good decisions. HE made the decisions to throw it and completed the passes. I know his team was good! Joe Burrow's team was good! Trevor Lawrence's team was good! I think he is just a winner. People are over analyzing him like they did Herbert last year! 

Pass efficiency QBR
1. Mac Jones 203.9 1. Mac Jones 96.0
2. Joe Burrow 202 2. Kyler Murray 95.4
3. Tua Tagovailoa 199.4 3. Joe Burrow 94.9
4. Kyler Murray 199.2 4. Tua Tagovailoa 94.8
5. Baker Mayfield 198.9 5. Justin Fields 94.8
6. Baker Mayfield 196.4 6. Russell Wilson 94.1
7. Justin Fields 196.1 7. Andrew Luck 93.1
8. Zach WIlson 195.4 8. Tua Tagovailoa 93.1
9. Kaleb Eleby 194.8 9. Baker Mayfield 92.3
10. Dustin Crum 192.7 10. Justin Fields 92.1
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