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My take on the QB situation


LinvilleGorge
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2 minutes ago, Martin said:

I think he might be back as well, but as a bridge for a rookie QB. If that is the case I’m ok ish with that so we don’t have to rush the rookie. 

But I’d be even more happy with another veteran QB

Yep. If we're going draft, I'd prefer to try to trade Teddy for anything to get out from under his contract then sign a different vet. I just think that bridge between Teddy and the Panthers might be burned and I'm not sure that locker room vibe would be a great one.

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15 minutes ago, thefuzz said:

I don't either, but starting to think the music may stop and the Panthers are the ones still standing up.

There is no excuse for Teddy being the starter next year.  Too many other options exist.

I am not a huge Kellen Mond fan, but seriously, the tools are there.  His inconsistencies are largely tied to his sometimes ropey footwork.  Dude has some legit arm talent.  I see a lot of similar traits (and comparitive results) to Josh Allen.  Obviously not in the first round.

I would be a lot more excited to watch Mond than TB5, I must say.

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4 minutes ago, BrianS said:

There is no excuse for Teddy being the starter next year.  Too many other options exist.

I am not a huge Kellen Mond fan, but seriously, the tools are there.  His inconsistencies are largely tied to his sometimes ropey footwork.  Dude has some legit arm talent.  I see a lot of similar traits (and comparitive results) to Josh Allen.  Obviously not in the first round.

I would be a lot more excited to watch Mond than TB5, I must say.

Yep. Another Teddy season is literally waving the white flag. The fans know it. The locker room knows it. Tepper and Rhule have said plenty to let everyone know that they know that Teddy isn't the guy. You can't go into next year with Teddy as your starting QB.

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On 3/10/2021 at 3:00 PM, LinvilleGorge said:

6. Trade back and hope Mac Jones slips. This would be a good play if we signed Trubisky. I want no part of Jones at #8, but picking Jones would be a lot easier to stomach if it was in a trade down that netted us additional draft assets.

 

On 3/10/2021 at 3:00 PM, LinvilleGorge said:

8. Trade for Garner Minshew. The Jags are drafting Trevor Lawrence. Minshew has real value as a backup, but so would a mid-round pick to help them build around Lawrence. Minshew is also still on a dirt cheap rookie contract so this move would have minimal cap implications.

option 6b (or 8b), Trade a mid round and TB for Minshew. The Jags get their back up and we unload Teddy's contract. Then we trade back to get Jones. Do whatever it takes to get a starting LT with our next pick. build from there. If Jones does actually turn out to be a franchise QB, we win. If he needs a while, we've upgraded our QB (with Minshew) while gaining cap space.

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I think an alternate here is a trade up to 5 for Lance or Fields.  Miami is tricky.  I mean, they've already got so much draft capital, so why trade back again? In conjunction with this, I think NYJ has the edge for Watson because I don't see HOU settling for the 3rd pick.  They want their man of choosing.   

So the question is, would Miami trade back again for the remaining of Smith/Chase/Sewell/Slater/Parsons?

Are they happy with Tua?

They're such a wildcard.

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    • Well the entire intent of this is based on success of the pick based on the performance of the QB for an "expected" minimum return. I think that is where maybe I am not explaining what I am doing as well as I need to. The intent of all of this is to spit out a percentage of "success" for QB's picked in each round. The specific QB's are just lines of data in the spreadsheet that's feeding the minimums. So what I am attempting to do is build out/fine tune a reasonable set of minimums you would expect to see given the round drafted(cost, if you will). My logic is basically this: 1st Rounders Hall of Fame - No explanation needed. This was an all time great player. MVP/All Pro/Pro Bowl - Achievement that even if only happened once, this was a worthy investment. The player was able to reach near or league best play, even if briefly.  IMO, using just one as a threshold is fair. Even though it might only happen once, they reached their potential. This also filters out some other elements like injury shortened careers. Guys like Andrew Luck and RGIII pass as "successful" without being filtered out by the next minimum. 8+ Years as a Starter: This is a bit more debateable but I have included it as a function to catch some guys that might be a "soft success." The logic here being that perhaps a lengthy NFL starting career is "good enough" to be a success. Much more so than a failure. A drafted QB that was able to be a long term NFL starter is very desired, even if elite status was not ever truly reached. The only example of this that DOESN'T include some previously listed accolades in the almost 300 data points is.....Joe Flacco. And I think anyone at this point would have a hard time arguing that he was not a successful 1st round pick.   I am just gonna explain the first round logic but the rest of the rounds are similar. If you achieve any of these things, I would consider you a "success." Perhaps that will make it my thought process more clear.   Once again, very grateful to have all the debates and input on this. I do want to make this a meaningful thing I can keep updating.
    • we win...  i have nothing to lose and everything to gain with this prediction
    • The Egg shell peen was keeping the huddle open the whole time
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