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Starting OL Projection ...


Zod
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4 minutes ago, Pup McBarky said:

Look, Rhule is big into analytics. What he saw about last year was not that sacks or pressures ruined drives. What he saw was a young, talented defense who could not get off the field on 3rd down. So he picked the guy most likely to help end that trend. You can argue all day long about our OL, and I agree, I would've addressed it in the 2nd round, but picking Slater over Horn didn't make sense to Rhule from an analytics standpoint. I get that. We'll see if it pans out, like every other pick they made.

But saying CB isn't worthy of a top 10 pick? In today's NFL? Are you serious?

Was typing my post concurrent with yours.  Yes, Horn helps the defense get off the field.

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17 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

In a pass happy league it absolutely is.

The NFL has gone the way of College Football. You drop bags for QB, DT, OT, CB and WR.

Everything else is secondary. 

I would leave WR off this list. Not saying you don’t re-sign DJ, but there have been a ton of talented WRs coming into the league every year now. It’s not even close on DT, OT, QB and CB. If Marshall pans out we would have been able to get rid of Samuel and then Anderson without any real hit. If Shi Smith looks good too, we may be better off.

Of all the positions you mentioned it just fees like college is producing way more good WRs than anything else.

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42 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

The thing that makes me so annoyed is that reportedly Slater(the guy I wanted in the 1st) is dominating against the Charger pass rushers in one on one's and 11 on 11's. I thought on draft night we would regret either not picking Slater or Fields and if either of them pans out, I still believe that. No disrespect to Horn at all and I think he will be very good for us, but QB's and LT's are extremely hard to find.

Slater doesn’t bother me that much, but if Fields looks like a stud and Darnold doesn’t, that would be tough to swallow. If Horn turns into the stud we think he can be, in a pass happy league he’s worth the pick. There aren’t tons of stud CBs every draft, so Horn could easily be as much of a value as Slater. Neither can touch the value of Fields if he’s a legit top QB for years.

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1 hour ago, Zod said:

Thats true, but we have seen Little and Scott in pads plenty, and its awful. There is also a lot of film on Erving at LT, and it is pretty bad too. 

The one position they knew they had to fill. they didn’t.  
 

Some would say QB is also in that category 

its mind boggling…not the fully new regime this year and not the combination of Rhule and Hurney last year   No point in talking about the wasteland of years in between since Gross 

Horn is a fine player, no question but again, two most important positions on the field are question marks.  

For modern Nfl teams those positions are the cornerstones  

move moton to the left and the right is weakened   Keep him at the right and that almost certainly means two TE sets or extra blocking in play formation or Darnold will be what he was in NY

fitterer and Rhule are paid to form a team,  

I guess we will see how patient Tepper really is

 

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1 hour ago, stbugs said:

I would leave WR off this list. Not saying you don’t re-sign DJ, but there have been a ton of talented WRs coming into the league every year now. It’s not even close on DT, OT, QB and CB. If Marshall pans out we would have been able to get rid of Samuel and then Anderson without any real hit. If Shi Smith looks good too, we may be better off.

Of all the positions you mentioned it just fees like college is producing way more good WRs than anything else.

3 WRs were taken in the Top 10 picks in 2021. 5 were taken in the first round in 2020.

It's a premium position. 

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39 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

3 WRs were taken in the Top 10 picks in 2021. 5 were taken in the first round in 2020.

It's a premium position. 

I get that but you are also posting what I was talking. There are a ton of solid WRs coming into the league. Trends don’t turn on a dime sometimes, but it sure seems like you can pull a WR in the draft pretty easily. In the 2020 draft there were 10 WRs that had 500+ yards their rookie year and that doesn’t include 2 first rounders. 9 WRs in the 2019 draft have over 1000 yards in their first two seasons. There aren’t a lot of stud WRs that have retired lately so while WR is a premium position, colleges are making them like hot cakes. I think we will extend Moore but you may see more teams like us letting Samuel and, I think, Anderson go to FA.

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2 hours ago, Pup McBarky said:

But saying CB isn't worthy of a top 10 pick? In today's NFL? Are you serious?

It's worth the pick depending on your roster. But when you've got a Jets reject as your QB and god knows who as your LT, CB takes a back seat.

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1 hour ago, Pup McBarky said:

Look, Rhule is big into analytics. What he saw about last year was not that sacks or pressures ruined drives. What he saw was a young, talented defense who could not get off the field on 3rd down. So he picked the guy most likely to help end that trend. You can argue all day long about our OL, and I agree, I would've addressed it in the 2nd round, but picking Slater over Horn didn't make sense to Rhule from an analytics standpoint. I get that. We'll see if it pans out, like every other pick they made.

But saying CB isn't worthy of a top 10 pick? In today's NFL? Are you serious?

First round CB's are typically a relatively high bust rate(IIRC, similar to WR). Lower bust rate than QB's, certainly.

At the end of the day, our bigger needs with much higher positional value were QB and OT. We will see how it works out but even if Horn is amazing(and I believe he can be), it will hurt for a long time if Slater or Fields become very good players. It's a matter of how much those positions are worth and how much they cost for top shelf players. And it isn't an overwhelming gulf between LT and CB, either. CB is definitely a top 5 position in the modern NFL. 

1 hour ago, stbugs said:

I would leave WR off this list. Not saying you don’t re-sign DJ, but there have been a ton of talented WRs coming into the league every year now. It’s not even close on DT, OT, QB and CB. If Marshall pans out we would have been able to get rid of Samuel and then Anderson without any real hit. If Shi Smith looks good too, we may be better off.

Of all the positions you mentioned it just fees like college is producing way more good WRs than anything else.

WR is still the second highest paying position in the NFL by top 10 average. Game breaking WR's do still hold a lot of value. 

1 hour ago, stbugs said:

Slater doesn’t bother me that much, but if Fields looks like a stud and Darnold doesn’t, that would be tough to swallow. If Horn turns into the stud we think he can be, in a pass happy league he’s worth the pick. There aren’t tons of stud CBs every draft, so Horn could easily be as much of a value as Slater. Neither can touch the value of Fields if he’s a legit top QB for years.

There are far less stud LT's. 

57 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

So you reach for a player you're not sure about at another premium position just because?

The question is if it was a reach. If Fields is a top 10-12 QB in three years, he was the better player. If Slater is a top 5 LT in three years, he was the better player. Even if Horn is a top 5 CB. These are all "to be determined" questions. I personally value QB and LT much higher than CB. The team very obviously did not. And they may even very well be right in the long run but I definitely worry about Fields and Slater because those are guys I would have personally drafted ahead of Horn.

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6 minutes ago, hepcat said:

It's worth the pick depending on your roster. But when you've got a Jets reject as your QB and god knows who as your LT, CB takes a back seat.

That's the thing, I get the BPA but positional value factors in as well.

I think the truth is that our team didn't have Slater or Fields rated higher than Horn. I definitely see the attraction to Horn, much more so now that I have seen so much more information on him post-draft. I even see that he is likely the best of the first round CB's. But....will he be better for us than Fields or Slater? TBD.

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1 minute ago, MHS831 said:

Tea Leaves I am reading say we start the season:

Erving    Elflein     Paradis    Miller    Moton

Reserves

Scott     Daley     Moore    Brown    Christensen

I think only Paradis and Moton are guaranteed starters. Camp could end up causing any of the rest of the two deep to shuffle a bunch. IMO, there probably isn't much separation in the top 2(or 3) of the rest of the OL spots. TBD.

Even if our starters remain relatively static throughout the camp, I don't know if we will know exactly what that means for at least a few games of the season. I guess ideally even if they are subpar individually they can stay healthy and develop enough chemistry for the sum to be greater than the parts. That's the best case scenario.

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I think I'd have to go with:

Moton / Elflein / Paradis / Miller / Christensen

I like Erving more as a back up, but they paid him starter money so it's his job to lose, Moore is a UDFA, let him be G/ C depth. As poorly as Little played at times, he had a couple moments, as I recall some pancakes on runs / screens. Scott I also like as depth, and same for Daley. 

I hope to goodness we're able to bring in even slight upgrades to depth after final cuts. The line I referenced I think allows us to be more functional, I think I trust the rookie more at RT, than a journeyman in Erving, we're talking his 4th team in less than 6 years roughly. To me that's not a positive indictment on a guy. 

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