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Offensive and Defensive EPA

AU-panther

By AU-panther,
in Carolina Panthers

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AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

Posted
Posted

Its rather impressive how bad our offensive actually is.  Not that EPA is the end all be all, a lot of people also like DVOA, but it's often better than just looking at PPG or YPG to measure both defenses and offenses.  

 

I know some people, either don't like stats or don't understand them, but there does seem to a fairly high correlation between EPA and actually win/loss records.

 

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mav1234 Grand Master

mav1234

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1 hour ago, AU-panther said:

Its rather impressive how bad our offensive actually is.  Not that EPA is the end all be all, a lot of people also like DVOA, but it's often better than just looking at PPG or YPG to measure both defenses and offenses.  

 

I know some people, either don't like stats or don't understand them, but there does seem to a fairly high correlation between EPA and actually win/loss records.

 

Is this just for week 17, or up to Week 17?

I think we had a thread about O/D EPA over the last ~5 games, and we were among the worst in both.

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Pimpdaddy Grand Master

Pimpdaddy

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

Oh, there's the stats. Just like I expected. Our much vaunted defense gets a lot of mileage out of those first three games.

They've sucked almost as much as the offense since then, sometimes worse.

 

Usually after the half they get owned mightily... guess from adjustments by the other team... simple adjustments I might add.

Edited by Pimpdaddy
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BrianS Veteran

BrianS

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People who try to write off our defense as "living on the first three games" really need to take a harder look.  Here, let me help.

This is a defensive stat sorted by average starting field position.  Basically, we put our defense in a worse situation than any other team.  Whether that is because of poor offense, poor special teams or poor coaching decisions, our defense gets put in the worst starting position of any defense.

image.png.d1d37f6dc86d49bb7e76fcb53314646c.png

However, when you look at yards surrendered per drive and plays surrendered per drive, our defense is the best in the league - still.

image.png.8fc9d39d00b7cc08144785293213ea9f.png

And when you look at points surrendered per drive, we're in the top half:

image.png.73d853baf82dd029cf57e93af243db85.png

 

Bottom line is that our defense has signs of life.  They actually seem to play pretty well until the entire team folds in the 2nd half.  It's not three games that did this.

But when you're saddled with an offense as bad as ours, with coaches who can't adjust in a league as competitive as the NFL you just can't expect miracles.

 

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