Offensive and Defensive EPA

[AU-panther]

Its rather impressive how bad our offensive actually is.  Not that EPA is the end all be all, a lot of people also like DVOA, but it's often better than just looking at PPG or YPG to measure both defenses and offenses.  

 

I know some people, either don't like stats or don't understand them, but there does seem to a fairly high correlation between EPA and actually win/loss records.

 

[Cdparr7]

I was scrolling on my PFF the other day. Again not an end all be all but we didn’t have a guard ranked in the top 55. I don’t think we had an OL in the top 50 period except for Moton and he wasn’t spectacular.

[LinvilleGorge]

It really doesn't matter what your favorite metric is. We suck ass in all of them. That's because we suck.

[mav1234]

1 hour ago, AU-panther said:

Its rather impressive how bad our offensive actually is.  Not that EPA is the end all be all, a lot of people also like DVOA, but it's often better than just looking at PPG or YPG to measure both defenses and offenses.  

 

I know some people, either don't like stats or don't understand them, but there does seem to a fairly high correlation between EPA and actually win/loss records.

 

Is this just for week 17, or up to Week 17?

I think we had a thread about O/D EPA over the last ~5 games, and we were among the worst in both.

[mav1234]

Interesting trends thru time in that thread ...

Panthers D has been trending down since the early weeks, where it was able to play the Taysom Hills of the NFL;)

 

[Khyber53]

Imagine how bad we'd look if we removed those first three games from the ratings...

[Khyber53]

Oh, there's the stats. Just like I expected. Our much vaunted defense gets a lot of mileage out of those first three games.

They've sucked almost as much as the offense since then, sometimes worse.

 

[Pimpdaddy]

only stat i look at is the scoreboard...

[Pimpdaddy]

2 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

Oh, there's the stats. Just like I expected. Our much vaunted defense gets a lot of mileage out of those first three games.

They've sucked almost as much as the offense since then, sometimes worse.

 

Usually after the half they get owned mightily... guess from adjustments by the other team... simple adjustments I might add.

Edited January 7, 2022 by Pimpdaddy

[mc52beast]

Look at all the metrics and graphs you want to, I really don’t need them. What you see on the field should tell you all you need to know and that is we have a long way to go before we start sniffing the playoffs.

[BrianS]

People who try to write off our defense as "living on the first three games" really need to take a harder look.  Here, let me help.

This is a defensive stat sorted by average starting field position.  Basically, we put our defense in a worse situation than any other team.  Whether that is because of poor offense, poor special teams or poor coaching decisions, our defense gets put in the worst starting position of any defense.

However, when you look at yards surrendered per drive and plays surrendered per drive, our defense is the best in the league - still.

And when you look at points surrendered per drive, we're in the top half:

 

Bottom line is that our defense has signs of life.  They actually seem to play pretty well until the entire team folds in the 2nd half.  It's not three games that did this.

But when you're saddled with an offense as bad as ours, with coaches who can't adjust in a league as competitive as the NFL you just can't expect miracles.

 

[davos]

The EPA is actually a very telling stat (The Athletic Football Show podcast converted me)

We have regressed and are absolutely awful.

[davos]

And to the point of EPA, that line chart is also very indicative of the good v bad teams IMO.