Worst Kept Secret at the Senior bowl (Panthers Interest in Pickett)

[BlitzMonster]

3 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

My fear with Pickett is that he's reached his peak and won't replicate his college success in the pros.

Pickett will be 24 going into his first NFL training camp. 

He had great success last year as one of the oldest and most experienced players in the ACC.   So, considering that fact, his great season is less of a surprise.

I also wonder how much better Pickett can get in the NFL.  Realistically I don't think it's that much.  He'll be a Teddy Bridgewater game-manager QB at best.   On a dysfunctional, poorly coached team like the Panthers, he would likely just flame out and then develop into a longtime backup QB that plays for several other NFL teams. 

[45catfan]

46 minutes ago, Luciu5 said:

Are you holding the ball at the laces???

Also out of curiousity, my hands measure 8 1/2" - same as Pickett's. But I'm 5' 6" tall. If he legit has a hand condition, that's going to have to evaluated more closely. I'd be curious what his left hand measures just as a comparison.

Yep, I haven't thrown a NFL regulation sized ball is a while, but I remember it being it's ever-so-slightly big for my hand size.  A college sized football feels about right though, IIRC.

So yeah, this will be an issue for him.  Maybe not so much passing (unless in bad weather conditions), but with hits.  If Pickett gets hit by a NFL D-lineman or LB, that ball is coming out unless he has both hands on it.

[ForJimmy]

 

[45catfan]

1 hour ago, Icege said:

Agreed on most (if not all!) points.

To expand on Pickett though, out of the other known "top QBs" for this draft (Willis, Howell, Corral, Strong, and Ridder), the only QB that fumbled the ball more often and turned it over more often was Desmond Ridder. In Ritter's defense, he did score more often?

QB	Games	Fumbles	Fumbles Lost	Fumble Avg	INTs	TOs	TO Avg	TOT TDs
Kenny Pickett	54	28	12	0.5185	32	44	0.8148	101
Sam Howell	37	18	7	0.4865	23	30	0.8108	109
Carson Strong	32	11	4	0.3438	19	23	0.7188	74
Desmond Ridder	50	26	17	0.5200	28	45	0.9000	115
Malik Willis	29	14	5	0.4828	18	23	0.7931	76
Matt Corral	37	13	7	0.3514	23	30	0.8108	75

Admittedly, I'm still traumatized from the Jimmy Clausen era. Pickett could by all means be an average NFL QB, but I don't think that's what we're looking for when we say we want a franchise guy.

(I'm all aboard the Aqeel Glass train fwiw)

So Pickett averaged roughly a fumble every other game.  Who cares that his team was able to recover over half of them.  The point is how often he put the ball on the ground!  Now take into account our OL situation and the LT we are passing up to draft Mr. dwarf-hands. Pitts OL was decent too, no?  Does this really seem like a good idea????

[Luciu5]

2 hours ago, 45catfan said:

Yep, I haven't thrown a NFL regulation sized ball is a while, but I remember it being it's ever-so-slightly big for my hand size.  A college sized football feels about right though, IIRC.

So yeah, this will be an issue for him.  Maybe not so much passing (unless in bad weather conditions), but with hits.  If Pickett gets hit by a NFL D-lineman or LB, that ball is coming out unless he has both hands on it.

You're not suppose to hold the ball at the laces....

[Luciu5]

2 hours ago, ForJimmy said:

 

This is my issue with Pickett. Burrow does this, Pickett hides his hands. Just says a lot about their mentality. Pickett doesn't seem very alpha in all this.

[ForJimmy]

4 minutes ago, Luciu5 said:

This is my issue with Pickett. Burrow does this, Pickett hides his hands. Just says a lot about their mentality. Pickett doesn't seem very alpha in all this.

He will have them measured before the draft. Honestly it’s just trolling them at this point. Burrow’s are 9 Pickett’s will probably be 8.5 and everyone will freak out. 

[Jackie Lee]

2 hours ago, 45catfan said:

So Pickett averaged roughly a fumble every other game.  Who cares that his team was able to recover over half of them.  The point is how often he put the ball on the ground!  Now take into account our OL situation and the LT we are passing up to draft Mr. dwarf-hands. Pitts OL was decent too, no?  Does this really seem like a good idea????

Yup, he fumbled two snaps in one rainy practice last week. 

[BlitzMonster]

1 minute ago, Jackie Lee said:

Yup, he fumbled two snaps in one rainy practice last week. 

It's gotta be tough for Pickett.  He was ACC POY and on draft day a bunch of coaches and GM's are just going to remember how he didn't hang on to the football that one rainy day at Senior Bowl. 

 

[Luciu5]

3 hours ago, BlitzMonster said:

Pickett will be 24 going into his first NFL training camp. 

He had great success last year as one of the oldest and most experienced players in the ACC.   So, considering that fact, his great season is less of a surprise.

I also wonder how much better Pickett can get in the NFL.  Realistically I don't think it's that much.  He'll be a Teddy Bridgewater game-manager QB at best.   On a dysfunctional, poorly coached team like the Panthers, he would likely just flame out and then develop into a longtime backup QB that plays for several other NFL teams. 

Look I'm not a huge Pickett fan, buuuuuuuuuut....

Can DJ Moore get better? Can Brian Burns get better? What about Jeremy Chinn? Has he peaked? Chinn turns 24 in a few days.

At what age do QB's reach their prime? I've always heard 28-32. I guess it's the right balance where the mental is all there and the physical hasn't deteriorated too much.

Now, I know you can talk about Darnold with this and say "look see he hasn't peaked either lets hold onto him for another 4 years, derp, derp!" to which I say Darnold has already proven he's not it in the NFL. Maybe he can develop more, but the ceiling is real low.

tldr - I think it's a premature to declare someone has hit their ceiling just because they are 24.

[ImaginaryKev]

Lack of arm strength was noticeable at the Senior bowl

[mav1234]

5 hours ago, 45catfan said:

So Pickett averaged roughly a fumble every other game.  Who cares that his team was able to recover over half of them.  The point is how often he put the ball on the ground!  Now take into account our OL situation and the LT we are passing up to draft Mr. dwarf-hands. Pitts OL was decent too, no?  Does this really seem like a good idea????

It's really worth noting that Justin fields  had 11 fumbles in 2 years with OSU.  He averaged roughly a fumble every other game (22 games I think).  Pits OL was good this year, yes, where Pickett had many fewer fumbles (3 in 13 games)... The last two years he's also had 10 fumbles in 22 games.  

So as much as I don't want Pickett it's not because of turnovers.  I just don't think he has a high enough ceiling.  Decent athleticism and decent arm strength, but that's not good enough imo to lead a franchise. I think his ceiling is a more athletic Derek Carr at best, and at 6 I'd rather do better...