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Executives grade trade activity

Mr. Scot

By Mr. Scot,
in Carolina Panthers

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poundaway Grand Master

poundaway

Posted
Posted
On 11/3/2022 at 11:54 PM, carpanfan96 said:

Do what??? The success rate (average starter for 4 years) is like 60% in round 1, 50% in round 2, high 30's in round 3 at best depending on position.  An average to good draft gets 1-2 players at best that stick with a team past the rookie contract. 

 

The rate of a 3rd rounder getting a second deal with any team is around 45%. 

Round 2 is 65% to get a second deal. 

21% of all draft picks become average starters or better based on AV. 

2nd and 3rd round picks not being starters and being out of the league in 4 years is more likely than getting a starter from either of those rounds.

I like the McCaffery trade but the averages say those picks probably don't turn into any starters at all. 

How many HOFers do teams average with those picks?

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Move the Panthers to Raleigh Grand Master

Move the Panthers to Raleigh

Posted
Posted
On 11/3/2022 at 8:26 AM, LinvilleGorge said:

It ultimately comes down to wins and losses and championships. It looked for years like the Chargers fleeced the Giants in that Eli Manning trade. They got an arguably better QB in Rivers and made good use of that bevy of picks. But at the end of it all, the Giants got two rings out of the deal. So who really won that trade?

 

Are you implying that CMC will lead SF to two SB wins?

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KatsAzz Grand Master

KatsAzz

Posted
Posted (edited)

It is hard to call the Panthers parting with a player as talented as McCaffrey a winner, but that seems to be the case.

The reality is that they will soon be starting over with a new head coach and could be staring down a significant overhaul.

Holding on to a running back who has missed 23 games since the start of the 2020 regular season does not help; nor does having his contract on the books.

Edited by KatsAzz
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1of10Charnatives Mentor

1of10Charnatives

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, poundaway said:

How many HOFers do teams average with those picks?

It's far from certain CMC winds up in the HOF. Plenty of players with all the talent in the world didn't make HOF because injuries limited their careers.

At this juncture, this far into a RB career, are you telling me you'd bet AGAINST this happening to CMC? 

I didn't think so. So let's not pretend we just gave up a HOFer in that trade. We gave up a very talented player with a problematic contract, unsettling injury history, and at a juncture where he's unlikely to have more than one or two more productive seasons left in him at most.

I love CMC too, but that's the reality.

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