How Carolina can / has already Improved the Passing Game

[MHS831]

Disclaimer: The following contains speculation supported with statistical analyses to make some general comments that should demonstrate how the Panthers' front office has already provided our new QB some options.  The numbers are practical guesstimates, based on a player's past performance and ability to remain healthy.

Terrace Marshall Jr. (WR)

Terrace Marshall will be turning 23 in June.  He played in 13 games in 2022, and was targeted 47 times, gaining 490 yards on 28 receptions.  In games where he was targeted over 3 times (4 games) he averaged 61.5 yards per game.  Putting that into perspective, it would equate to 1045 yards if he was consistently targeted more than 3 times per game over a 17-game season.  So whatever the reason he did not get more looks—poor route running or poor QB play-- averaging over 10 yards per target is impressive. 

As the 22-year old enters year three in the NFL, expect an increase in productivity and maturity.  His mechanics should be better, and this new coaching staff will become evident in his development.  Do not sell TMJ short; as the #2 WR, I see a year where he is targeted 5-7 times per game, something that should boost his targets from under 50 to over 100.  While it is doubtful that he maintains a 10-yard-per-target average, it is reasonable to expect a 700-800 yard season out of Marshall simply by increasing his targets to 6 per game. If so, that increases his productivity by 200-300 yards.

Laviska Shenault (WR)

Most Huddlers would agree that Shenault was not used well last season with the Panthers.  He was not asked to run the route tree as much as he was used as a wrinkle or gimmick. Looking at the 16 games he played in Jacksonville (as they struggled to find an offense there) he was targeted 100 times and finished the season with 619 yards.  With a poor OL and a QB trying to figure things out, when targeted about 6 times per game, he was able to average close to 40 yards per game.  With a better OL and better QB play (hopefully), Shenault should be able to return to 2021 form.  In 2022, Carolina targeted Shenault under three times per game and finished with 272 yards—half as often as he was targeted in Jacksonville, and Shenault caught 27/32---an impressive number.  A reasonable projection would be to increase the targets to Shenault to 50-60 and get Shenault to a total of 500 yards for the season, increasing Shenault's productivity by about 200-250 yards.

Hayden Hurst (TE)

In 2022 with the Bengals, Hayden played 13 games and was targeted just over 5 times per game for an average of 32 yards per game.  Here in Carolina in 2022, for the last 4 seasons, Ian Thomas was targeted fewer that twice per game, and in each of the last 4 seasons, Thomas has been under 200 yards receiving.  So if Hurst continues his current level of productivity, we double the yardage from the starting TE and we add a target in the red zone. Expect Hurst to be targeted around 5 times per game and have about 500-600 yards in Carolina this season, considering the lack of a true, alpha WR.  This would increase productivity from the starting TE around 300-400 yards.

Miles Sanders (RB)

Forget the fact that Sanders has averaged 927 yards per season rushing the ball since being drafted 4 years ago, this is about his receiving capabilities.  He was probably underutilized as a pass catcher in Philly since Hurts took over as QB, which is why I think he will become an all-pro in Carolina.  In 2019, the Eagles targeted Sanders 63 times for 509 yards in 16 games.  In 2021 and 2022, the Eagles targeted Sanders only 34 and 26 times (in 17 games) respectively, signifying the changes that coincided with Jalen Hurts becoming the QB. His receiving numbers became rather pedestrian. In 2022, D’Onta Foreman had 9 targets for 26 yards, and Chubba Hubbard had 17 targets for 117 yards.  Expect Sanders use as a receiver to escalate to somewhere in the area of 50 targets, meaning that we could expect to more than double our RB receiving numbers to somewhere around 400 yards, improving RB receiving yardage 200-250 yards (this is modest).

SUMMARY

The suggested targets to each individual comes to 15 targets per game, leaving about 15 targets (the NFL average is about 30 pass attempts per game) for the #1 WR and the #3/4 WR and other players.  If these estimates hold up, the increase in productivity--through maturation, better utilization, and upgrades should improve the receiving efficiency by about 1000 yards--the number of yards we lost when we traded DJ Moore.  The point being, we do not have to add a 1000-yard WR in free agency to avoid total ruin.  We can add a solid pro and a draft pick and we'd be so much improved in the passing game.

While I am breathing into brown paper bags when someone says, "Wide Receiver" in my vicinity, we simply need to bring in a solid #1 WR and draft a rookie. If our current talent develops as I think they will (by being used properly and having a better QB), we should be fine.

[LinvilleGorge]

We'll see. Competent coaching should help a lot but we gotta nail this upcoming pick and hope we can make up for the loss of DJ in the receiving corps.

[MHS831]

7 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

We'll see. Competent coaching should help a lot but we gotta nail this upcoming pick and hope we can make up for the loss of DJ in the receiving corps.

I have just seen young players who are underutilized totally break out when the opportunity presents itself. With Robbie/Robby/Chosen and DJ suddenly gone, opportunity is now.   Most are thinking that Marshall is a near bust and Shenault is a French swiss army knife, and I think that is not the case.  We shall see.

[LinvilleGorge]

I don't think TMJ is a near bust but I'm also not nearly certain that he's ready to be a top target. I really hope the staff sees serious untapped potential in our current guys... and that they're right about that. Because on paper we probably have the worst group of receiving targets on the league right now.

 

[Pejorative Miscreant]

I think Hurst and Sanders are pretty good relief valves for a rookie QB but we do need an offensive threat to emerge.  I dont know if TMJ was under utilized by an inept coaching staff or it took him a while to catch on or both, however he seemed to come along some under McAdoo and Wilkes so hopefully he can make a jump.

[kungfoodude]

19 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

We'll see. Competent coaching should help a lot but we gotta nail this upcoming pick and hope we can make up for the loss of DJ in the receiving corps.

We also don't have to do it in one offseason. I think most fans are missing that. You don't make panic moves.

[LinvilleGorge]

6 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

We also don't have to do it in one offseason. I think most fans are missing that. You don't make panic moves.

I'm just anxious because I've seen the results of drafting a stud QB at #1 overall and then failing to surround him with an adequate supporting cast.

[ForJimmy]

2 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I'm just anxious because I've seen the results of drafting a stud QB at #1 overall and then failing to surround him with an adequate supporting cast.

If nothing else he will already have a solid OL, good RB with hands, reliable TE who can catch, and a HC/OC that knows what they are doing.  That's already far more than Cam even had.  We have brought in several WRs already so it's clear our staff knows it's an issue and plans on addressing it.

[Pejorative Miscreant]

3 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I'm just anxious because I've seen the results of drafting a stud QB at #1 overall and then failing to surround him with an adequate supporting cast.

I think you are dead-on accurate to be concerned.  I do think that it may take some time to get a respectable-to-top notch receiving group in place.  The vet TE helps bridge things but the QB will need more weapons for sure. 

[kungfoodude]

21 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I'm just anxious because I've seen the results of drafting a stud QB at #1 overall and then failing to surround him with an adequate supporting cast.

Fair but we have to assume that won't happen this time and then see if it does. 

I don't want to sell the farm in one of these "win now" deals that we sprayed everywhere during the Rhule Reign.

[LinvilleGorge]

7 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Fair but we have to assume that won't happen this time and then see if it does. 

I don't want to sell the farm in one of these "win now" deals that we sprayed everywhere during the Rhule Reign.

I love Jeremy Chinn and in a perfect world I'd want him to be a career Panther but given our roster needs I'd be talking to the Bengals about Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. They're stacked at WR and fresh out of safeties. We're stacked with defensive tweeners and fresh out of WRs. It makes all the sense in the world.

 

[frankw]

TMJ has plenty of untapped potential but anyone expecting instant 1k+ yards out of him should temper that some.  It's on Fitterer he knew when he made the move what has to be done and the short term risks. We need to hit on a solid WR in the draft regardless.

[frankw]

6 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I love Jeremy Chinn and in a perfect world I'd want him to be a career Panther but given our roster needs I'd be talking to the Bengals about Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. They're stacked at WR and fresh out of safeties. We're stacked with defensive tweeners and fresh out of WRs. It makes all the sense in the world.

One part of me says no way the other says we just shipped off a 25 year old WR who was our most productive in years. I see us beginning to go down the path of overinvesting in defense again. There's still time though. We'll just have to see what Fitterer and Reich have planned.

[ColumbusCounty]

There are several reasons to be optimistic about TMJ. I think the reason Rhule benched him was the same reason he drafted him. And probably the reason we signed Teddy year one, Joe Brady. I could be wrong but my mind tells me Marshall was drafted 2021 off the insistence of Brady. Being his main advocate, when Brady got fired half way through the season Marshall's production, reps, and snaps took a nose dive. 

He shows up to training camp and over performs which puts pressure on the staff. Then he gets injured and subsequently put on the back burner as CJ Saunders starts to impress. He's then labelled a bust by many until Rhule is fired and Wilks takes over and injects him in the gameplan. Now we're seeing the flashes almost weekly. (All my speculation) 

Side note: And I can almost guarantee you that seeing Burrow, Chase and Jefferson go crazy in the NFL plagues his mind. 

In an ideal situation he's that possession receiver we need. Hopefully he's working on this route running. 

And, idunno Reich might have a two TE system in mind with how deep this draft is. But it is evident we're looking for a WR after kicking the tires on Thielen and Chark. Just feels good knowing we have play callers that can actually adjust to the players strengths. 

Shanualt just has to be utilized correctly, Cordarrelle Patterson-esque. At Colorado he ran the wildcat alot, esp in the redzone, that's about the only thing I dont wanna see him do here. But he is a physical presence and a playmaker. 

My eyes are on Flowers and Hyatt. CJ or Bryce with one of them would be the move. Maybe Downs also. I'd love Marvin Harrison Jr if CJ was the pick but we wont be anywhere near able to pick him up next year. 

Side note 2: Originally I thought we moved up for Bryce. That switched to CJ.. now it's back to Bryce. His processing and ability to extend plays are damn near elite. That size just scares me to death. CJ's accuracy and 41 Tds last year is insane though. Bryce has always been the #1 QB since highschool. CJ would be "safe" option, while Young is actually the better prospect all around. We cant go wrong with either but I could see half of Charlotte explode if it's not CJ. 

Just a rant, dont mind me.