Panthers NFC South Champs!

[tukafan21]

19 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Yeah but jumping up in the draft to get a project #2/3 WR is just plain not smart. I am down on XL because the thought was that he could be a potential #1 WR and he has been anything but that so far. Also, the idea of him as a slot is even more upsetting because you pass on several more productive slot guys(McConkey being the most obvious) that were TREMENDOUSLY more NFL ready.

I was not a fan of the XL move at the time and I am not a fan of the decision in short term hindsight either. He is just simply going to have to be a guy that proves it on the field to me.

McMillian was my #1 WR in this draft and I was a pro-McMillian guy. However, he isn't gonna get treated with baby gloves either. We are in the era of rookie WR's putting up 1k+ yd seasons with regularity. He's going to(barring injury) have to be one of the top 2 or 3 WR's in this class in terms of production. And that's being very generous to him. He really needs to be THE guy from this class. It isn't like he is gonna have a lot of guys taking catches away from him.

First on T-Mac, I 100% expect him to be the top WR from this class, however I think expecting him to put up 1k+ as a rookie isn't necessarily fair, especially since you're putting it in perspective of how many other rookie WRs have done that in recent years.

And Thielen is the reason for that.

Not many (if any) of those 1k+ rookies had someone like Thielen there when they were drafted, and no matter how good T-Mac is this year, Bryce is still going to lean on his existing chemistry with Thielen unless he's drastically lost a step this offseason and just can't get open like he's been able to in his career.

As I pointed out in another thread the other day, looking at MHJ last year is the way to look at T-Mac's season if Thielen plays a full and healthy season.  MHJ had McBride "steal" 110+ catches and 1,100+ yards in what was a pass happy offense (Kyler was 9th in the league in attempts), it's going to be hard for any rookie to put up more than the 800ish yards he had last year in that scenario.  Especially if we follow a similar game plan to last year and be a run heavy team.

In terms of XL, you're completely right, jumping up to get a project 2/3 isn't smart, and if we knew we needed a future slot from that pick, yes, Ladd would have been a much better pick.

But at this point, those are all sunk costs, even taking T-Mac at 8 is now considered a sunk cost.

Forgetting the past or who we maybe should have taken last year now knowing future roles, I still think T-Mac, XL, Coker can be one of the Top 1-3 WR rooms in the NFL in a few years, I honestly think they really do have that potential in them.

Edited 8 hours ago by tukafan21

[Basbear]

2 hours ago, CRA said:

I say about 7ish wins.  Give or take. 

I think the Panthers are still fundamentally in no mans land on offense where the QB doesn't match the playcaller/talent. 

I think the D moves from horrible to average. 

This is where I am at, before I see what they show on the field. 

5-9 wins

The main deal and difference is Coaches right now. The talent is on the low end, * but its enough for them to compete. Evero this is your time and guess what Mr. former #1 overall, its time for you too.

The saving grace is this piss poor NFC south. The fuging Yucs have won 4 str with 9-10 win season type of plays, feasting on this weak 6 game schedule. With some Luck panther *could* win 9 or 10 and steal a playoff game too. 

The truth is this is the 2nd year(really 1.5) into full 3 year rebuild. *After 2026 the cap should be fixed and the team shhhhoooould have some talent, young talent. Many will be in their prime years- dbrown, horn, hunt, BY, lewis, icky, moehrig etc. Then XL, brooks(pray), Wallace, sanders, 2025&2026 draft class will fill in the remaining spots.  

Edited 8 hours ago by Basbear

[ColumbusCounty]

Well we won 5 games and it took the worst defense in NFL history to do that. 

IF we can stay relatively healthy and Bryce plays just like he did (not even saying better) after the benching you could arguably debate 9-10 wins. I wouldn't hold my breath but I wouldn't be shocked. 

The defensive improvement should be remarkable actually. Same corners, new dline, DB's return, updated safeties, same LB's ...+ the Dline's improvement should make every position about 25% better. If that's good enough to stop atleast 2 touchdowns more than we were able to last season then yea we're about to suprise alot of people imho. 

[ColumbusCounty]

33 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

First on T-Mac, I 100% expect him to be the top WR from this class, however I think expecting him to put up 1k+ as a rookie isn't necessarily fair, especially since you're putting it in perspective of how many other rookie WRs have done that in recent years.

If Tmac is the #1 read, I think it's safe to say he'll have 1k yards on the season. Our last 2 first round WRs before XL hit the mark (DJ and Benjamin). Hell, add up the missed yardage on Legette and he'd probably be knocking at the door. 

Refer to last season's first few games and substitute Diontae Johnson with McMillian. And If he plays every game, he'll most likely be in discussion for OROY. 

[panthers55]

That is the thing, we were very competitive on offense at the end of the year but our defense was terrible and rarely gave us short fields or defensive points. The number of wins is totally dependent on the defense and lack of injuries on both sides of the ball.  We could easily win 8 if our defense is competitive. Brown being back alone is worth a win or two. Add some pass rush and run defense and who knows. But I am oddly not worried about the offense for the first time in years.

[tukafan21]

10 minutes ago, ColumbusCounty said:

If Tmac is the #1 read, I think it's safe to say he'll have 1k yards on the season. Our last 2 first round WRs before XL hit the mark (DJ and Benjamin). Hell, add up the missed yardage on Legette and he'd probably be knocking at the door. 

Refer to last season's first few games and substitute Diontae Johnson with McMillian. And If he plays every game, he'll most likely be in discussion for OROY. 

First of all, DJ had 788 yards as a rookie

And second, KB was playing with Cam the year before he won MVP, and while Olsen had the exact same 1,008 yards as KB that year, next on the list was Cotchery with 580 and then 4th was Philly Brown with 296.

KB had 73 receptions on 146 targets that year, THAT'S why he had 1k+ yards, not because he was some dominant WR, there were no other WR options on that team at all.

If you say Thielen and Olsen are somewhat equal, particularly in role and ability, then XL/Coker >>>>>> Cotchery/Brown.

Yes, T-Mac very well could get there, and this isn't me hedging on the ability of my guy.  It's that we should in theory have a lot of good receiving options and in his rookie year, I can see how T-Mac can have a good season but still not get to 1k this year because of it.

In year 2 when we lose Thielen and he has that year under his belt, then yea, I'll say right now, I'm expecting a 1,200 yard season at minimum from him in 2026.  But I just think expecting 1k this first year given the weapons we have and being a run first offense, isn't fair to T-Mac.

Again, just look at MHJ for what an uber talented rookie is likely to do when there is another legit receiving option there.  Nabers and BTJ were the only games in town for them last year, Puka the year before had a lot of time as the only option there while Kupp was hurt.

If that happens to us next year with Thielen/XL/Coker, then yea, I'll then say T-Mac should get that 1k mark, but I'm not going to make my expectations based on expecting injuries.

Edited 8 hours ago by tukafan21

[kungfoodude]

4 hours ago, tukafan21 said:

First on T-Mac, I 100% expect him to be the top WR from this class, however I think expecting him to put up 1k+ as a rookie isn't necessarily fair, especially since you're putting it in perspective of how many other rookie WRs have done that in recent years.

And Thielen is the reason for that.

Not many (if any) of those 1k+ rookies had someone like Thielen there when they were drafted, and no matter how good T-Mac is this year, Bryce is still going to lean on his existing chemistry with Thielen unless he's drastically lost a step this offseason and just can't get open like he's been able to in his career.

As I pointed out in another thread the other day, looking at MHJ last year is the way to look at T-Mac's season if Thielen plays a full and healthy season.  MHJ had McBride "steal" 110+ catches and 1,100+ yards in what was a pass happy offense (Kyler was 9th in the league in attempts), it's going to be hard for any rookie to put up more than the 800ish yards he had last year in that scenario.  Especially if we follow a similar game plan to last year and be a run heavy team.

In terms of XL, you're completely right, jumping up to get a project 2/3 isn't smart, and if we knew we needed a future slot from that pick, yes, Ladd would have been a much better pick.

But at this point, those are all sunk costs, even taking T-Mac at 8 is now considered a sunk cost.

Forgetting the past or who we maybe should have taken last year now knowing future roles, I still think T-Mac, XL, Coker can be one of the Top 1-3 WR rooms in the NFL in a few years, I honestly think they really do have that potential in them.

I can't excuse T-Mac not being a 1k guy in a 17 game schedule. Especially with how many of those rookie WR's have done that in the past 15 years.

He needs to produce quickly. Don't get me wrong, if the offense just ends up being broken for some reason, that is a valid excuse but he really needs to show he is the guy very early.

[tukafan21]

49 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I can't excuse T-Mac not being a 1k guy in a 17 game schedule. Especially with how many of those rookie WR's have done that in the past 15 years.

He needs to produce quickly. Don't get me wrong, if the offense just ends up being broken for some reason, that is a valid excuse but he really needs to show he is the guy very early.

Last year Thielen had 615 yards in 10 games (had more ypg than his 1k season in 23).  XL had 497 in 16 games with tons of drops and Coker had 478 in 11.

They also only had only 192 of our 518 targets to get those numbers.

So if Thielen has 1,000 yards again, XL and Coker each improve to say 600 yards each, and T-Mac comes in at 800 yards, you're going to say that's not good enough?  Especially if he ends up with close to, if not getting to, double digit TD's like I think he will, as he's going to be a red zone monster for Bryce?

Because if that's the breakdown of just the Top 4 and Bryce plays all 17 games, he's going to be pushing a 4,000 yard season as the TEs, RBs, and other WRs will probably add up to 750-1k yards as well, and I think that would be far more than anyone here could be expecting of him this season.

Last year the Giants only had 2 players with more than 331 yards besides Nabers and they were 699 and 573 while Nabers "only" had 1,200 yards (granted in 15 games).  While the Jags second leading receiving was a TE with 411 yards and BTJ also "only" had 1,282 but in all 17 games.

Odunze couldn't get there (734 in 17 games) with Moore and Allen there, just as McConkey was able to get there because his competition for targets was Quentin Johnson (711 yards), Josh Palmer (584), and Will Dissly (481) who I think Thielen, XL, and Coker are all better than any of them.

If everyone stays healthy and XL/Coker have improved, I think Bryce is going to spread the ball around rather than focus on T-Mac in a way that most of the 1k rookies have been able to get.

Again I point to MHJ and the Cardinals last year.

They had 3,859 yards receiving.  

McBride had 1,146, MHJ had 885, then their 3rd and 4th in rec yards were 548 and 414.

Take the 146 and 85 that McBride/MHJ had over my example for our guys and give them to the other two and they get to 7 yards shy of the 1,200 combined yards I'm using for XL/Coker, while the rest of the team added up to 866 yards.

So, if you expect T-Mac to get to 1k, where are you taking those yards from?

if anything, XL and Coker each getting 600 yards seems like a low projection, so they wouldn't come from there.

Maybe they come from Thielen now that we have T-Mac as the true #1.  But I think if anything, having T-Mac draw attention will just make it easier for Thielen to get open and him and Bryce have great chemistry already, he's not going to stop throwing his way if he can pick up easy chunks of yards there.

So maybe they come from the RBs, TEs, other WRs, but it's I think a very fair example to show why expecting 1,000 yards if everyone stays healthy isn't necessarily fair to him.

It's also why I said I'd then expect at least 1,200 yards in 2026, as once Thielen leave and all 3 of T-Mac/XL/Coker get better, they absorb that 1,000 yards Thielen leaves behind with T-Mac probably taking close to half of it and the other two splitting up the other half.

Edited 3 hours ago by tukafan21

[tukafan21]

50 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I can't excuse T-Mac not being a 1k guy in a 17 game schedule. Especially with how many of those rookie WR's have done that in the past 15 years.

He needs to produce quickly. Don't get me wrong, if the offense just ends up being broken for some reason, that is a valid excuse but he really needs to show he is the guy very early.

 

9 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Last year Thielen had 615 yards in 10 games (had more ypg than his 1k season in 23).  XL had 497 in 16 games with tons of drops and Coker had 478 in 11.

They also only had only 192 of our 518 targets to get those numbers.

So if Thielen has 1,000 yards again, XL and Coker each improve to say 600 yards each, and T-Mac comes in at 800 yards, you're going to say that's not good enough?  Especially if he ends up with close to, if not getting to, double digit TD's like I think he will, as he's going to be a red zone monster for Bryce?

Because if that's the breakdown of just the Top 4 and Bryce plays all 17 games, he's going to be pushing a 4,000 yard season as the TEs, RBs, and other WRs will probably add up to 750-1k yards as well, and I think that would be far more than anyone here could be expecting of him this season.

Last year the Giants only had 2 players with more than 331 yards besides Nabers and they were 699 and 573 while Nabers "only" had 1,200 yards (granted in 15 games).  While the Jags second leading receiving was a TE with 411 yards and BTJ also "only" had 1,282 but in all 17 games.

If everyone stays healthy and XL/Coker have improved, I think Bryce is going to spread the ball around rather than focus on T-Mac in a way that most of the 1k rookies have been able to get.

Again I point to MHJ and the Cardinals last year.

They had 3,859 yards receiving.  

McBride had 1,146, MHJ had 885, then their 3rd and 4th in rec yards were 548 and 414.

Take the 146 and 85 that McBride/MHJ had over my example for our guys and give them to the other two and they get to 7 yards shy of the 600 I'm using for XL/Coker, while the rest of the team added up to 866 yards.

So, if you expect T-Mac to get to 1k, where are you taking those yards from?

if anything, XL and Coker each getting 600 yards seems like a low projection, so they wouldn't come from there.

Maybe they come from Thielen now that we have T-Mac as the true #1.  But I think if anything, having T-Mac draw attention will just make it easier for Thielen to get open and him and Bryce have great chemistry already, he's not going to stop throwing his way if he can pick up easy chunks of yards there.

So maybe they come from the RBs, TEs, other WRs, but it's I think a very fair example to show why expecting 1,000 yards if everyone stays healthy isn't necessarily fair to him.

It's also why I said I'd then expect at least 1,200 yards in 2026, as once Thielen leave and all 3 of T-Mac/XL/Coker get better, they absorb that 1,000 yards Thielen leaves behind with T-Mac probably taking close to half of it and the other two splitting up the other half.

I gave you a full breakdown and examples from last year as to why I think it's unfair to expect 1k from T-Mac this year if everyone stays healthy.

But the TLDR version is we will have 4 legitimately good WRs next year, most rookies who get to 1,000 yards don't have any others on the team with them let alone 3 others, it will be hard for him to put up 1k with out the others being injured or falling short of expectations themselves, but in 2026 without Thielen it's different.

Because again, I'm not assuming major injuries or games missed when I'm putting expectations out there for the season, I'm assuming good health.  If those other 3 WRs combine to miss a lot of time, then yes, he needs to get to 1k in that scenario.

Edited 3 hours ago by tukafan21