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The quality stats USUALLY tell the story: Bryce outplayed Stafford today...and the Panthers won

SCO96

By SCO96,
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PanthersATL Grand Master

PanthersATL

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1 hour ago, joeyxfresco said:

This also the first offensive game all season where I felt we blended a lot of things that work for us into a complete game. Everyone ate their piece of the pie. Want more of this and less of the Falcons Bryce takeovers and Rico forced runs. 9ers game showed how one dimensional we can get with the script. This game showed adaptability and responding to whatever the defense throws at us. Loved every bit of it 

And both the offense and the defense stepped up despite the players who were out

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SCO96 Veteran

SCO96

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48 minutes ago, CRA said:

Bryce didn’t outplay Stafford.  Stafford was asked to be a NFL QB all game and mistakes were made.   Bryce was treated like a 3rd string QB the entire game…..and then on 4th down Canales frankly called 2 really dumb plays that worked out insanely well.  The exact calls people have said are why he shouldn’t be a NFL coach.  We have seen the need 2 yards and Bryce chucking it incomplete on repeat this year 

 

Stafford cost the Rams the game today. All of 3 of his turnovers were back breakers for LA and they lost the game. On the other hand Bryce has a couple of nice TD passes and made several critical completions that extended some drives and ultimately iced the game with the last completion to Coker. He also didn't make any major mistakes or turnovers that really hurt the team. In that sense he outplayed Stafford. If you swapped their stat-lines the Rams win this game.

That said, in no game situation would I ever take Young over Stafford. Watching Stafford zip those passes all over the field actually made envious during the game. I actually agreed with one of your posts under another thread. Bryce still hasn't proven he can effectively throw against a strong zone coverage. He seems to be most effective against one on one coverage...and even then its usually outside the numbers and not over the middle of the field. I have a hard time seeing him improving on this due to his height and subpar arm, but it would be nice if he could.

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SCO96 Veteran

SCO96

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Another major stat is defensive passer rating differential. This is calculated by the following formula.

Passer Rating Differential = (Offensive Passer Rating) − (Opponent Passer Rating Allowed)

61.2 = (Bryce's rating 147.1) - (Stafford's rating 85.9)

If a team has a +10 differential they have a 70-75% chance of winning

A team with a +20 differential has 85-90% chance of winning

A +25 to +30 differential has a 95% chance of winning. According to Chat GPT A passer rating differential of +25 or higher is one of the strongest predictors of victory in a single NFL game — more reliable than turnover differential, rushing yards, or total yards

Bryce played well overall today, but a lion's share of the credit goes to the defense for their ability to force Stafford in several uncharacteristic errors to keep his QBR under 90 today.

If the team is going to be successful going forward, Bryce is going to have to play like this from week to week or the team needs to bring another QB who is up to the task.

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SCO96 Veteran

SCO96

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Just now, kungfoodude said:

I started to like this until the part when I knew it was all most likely BS.

The information/formula in my post comes from a defunct football site website, Cold Hard Football Facts.com. It was hosted by Kerry Byrne back in the day. I think the website closed down around 2016-2017 so I'm unable to directly access information from their webpage. I had to use Chat GTP to search the internet for the information/formula.  

The data is solid. After the MNF game I'll post some information about these passing stats. I can guarantee you that nearly every team with a +10 to +20 PDR is in the run a playoff spot and those in with a negative PDR are in the bottom third of the NFL in winning percentage.

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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7 minutes ago, SCO96 said:

The information/formula in my post comes from a defunct football site website, Cold Hard Football Facts.com. It was hosted by Kerry Byrne back in the day. I think the website closed down around 2016-2017 so I'm unable to directly access information from their webpage. I had to use Chat GTP to search the internet for the information/formula.  

The data is solid. After the MNF game I'll post some information about these passing stats. I can guarantee you that nearly every team with a +10 to +20 PDR is in the run a playoff spot and those in with a negative PDR are in the bottom third of the NFL in winning percentage.

I would just like some real sources and not LLM crap. It gets under my skin.

Sorry if you caught a stray on that but I have too much experience with that kind of crap being INSANELY inaccurate.

Look forward to the thread without that, however. That's right up my alley.

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Stuart Smith Veteran

Stuart Smith

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6 hours ago, SCO96 said:

Check out the final stat line for Young 

C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT SACKS RTG  
15/20 206 10.3 3 0 2-12 147.1  

 

Stafford:

C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT SACKS RTG  
18/28 243 8.7 2 2 2-16 85.9  

About a year or two ago I heard Keyshawn Johnson make a statement that I have never forgotten. I don't have the exact quote, but I'll paraphrase.

You don't need your QB to throw for 300 yards every week. All you need is:

1) A  guy who can drop back 20-25 times per game and not turn the ball over.

2) Pass for approximately 200-220 yards per game

3) Make about 2-3 explosive pass completions per game 

4) Put over 21 points on the scoreboard for most weeks. 

Bryce did all of the above and we won.

I'd like to add that he won the crucial Yards/attempt battle today as well. A passer who averages 7.0 yds/att is a solid player.

Stafford score was 8.7, which is way above the normal. He only lost today because of the turnovers.

Bryce averaged 10.3! That's an elite performance for 20 drop-backs. 

Looking at several Rams fans pages for their take on today’s game. They were pretty much in agreement that Sean McVay got out coached today. (Their words, not mine) one guy was butthurt because it might knock Stafford off the MVP pedestal. 

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Tr3ach Grand Master

Tr3ach

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5 hours ago, CRA said:

Bryce didn’t outplay Stafford.  Stafford was asked to be a NFL QB all game and mistakes were made.   Bryce was treated like a 3rd string QB the entire game…..and then on 4th down Canales frankly called 2 really dumb plays that worked out insanely well.  The exact calls people have said are why he shouldn’t be a NFL coach.  We have seen the need 2 yards and Bryce chucking it incomplete on repeat this year 

 

Its crazy to me that we are half a game from the division lead and just outplayed the best team in the NFL this season and so many people still want to 100% declare that we have a terrible qb AND terrible head coach.  Im pretty sure both of those things cant be true in this situation.  One of them may be.  With our roster talent level it is basically impossible for both of them to be.

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3838 Mentor

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9 hours ago, Tr3ach said:

Its crazy to me that we are half a game from the division lead and just outplayed the best team in the NFL this season and so many people still want to 100% declare that we have a terrible qb AND terrible head coach.  Im pretty sure both of those things cant be true in this situation.  One of them may be.  With our roster talent level it is basically impossible for both of them to be.

It's Dunning Kruger. And this place is full of it. 

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