An Explication of the Offense

[MHS831]

Greetings Huddlers.  Here is my annual analysis of the offense pre-draft in my attempt to predict and understand moves made draft weekend, which is upon us!  I analyze my views on each position and might suggest why I think the Panthers will do what they will do.  This is not my opinion (but there is some bias in it) but more of an educated guess based on the little we know.

Quarterback: Gonna start with a conspiracy theory—probably nothing to discuss. It seems that we are going with Bryce, but there was a somewhat interesting statement made about Bryce’s contract.  Morgan (I believe) stated that they would look into Bryce’s contract after the draft.  That probably means that he is busy, but I found it interesting that Draft Kings shows the Panthers as the sixth, “most likely” team to draft Ty Simpson, based on betting lines.  Acquiring Kenny Pickett and moving Andy Dalton to Philly creates another dynamic that could signal some draft day (or post-draft day) drama.  Hurts situation in Philly might have necessitated the Dalton move (again, nothing much more than speculation), but the Panthers taking a younger, former first rounder (I know) could possibly signal a QB competition–depending on what we do draft day.  It seems to me that they are hoping to bring in a UDFA, based on visits.  This is not to say that Bryce is stagnant.  He has improved, and with weapons and a fortress in front of him, he could be better.  I never understood how a QB of his ilk would not have a stud receiving TE and a stud Z WR–he has had neither. Heck, if you cover TMAC like you should with man under and S over the top, you can play zone vs. whoever is playing Z (XL).  So maybe they know something we do not; based on TV coverage, it is hard to see what Bryce sees–how open are his receivers?  They know their jobs are riding on Bryce. In my view, the contract should not be fully guaranteed–the devil will be in the details. 

 

Running Back:  The Panthers were right to let Dowdle walk.  Two RBs on expensive contracts with Brooks possibly emerging as a third option is fiscally irresponsible.   In my view, you make you RBs better with better OL play.  Yes, there are players like CMC etc, but Dowdle peaked here, in terms of historical data that shows RBs peak and start rapidly declining between ages 27 and 28.  Chuba is 26, fwiw, and a tremendous locker room leader. I get it. With Brooks, Etienne, and Dillon behind him, we have a pretty full RB room.  This suggests that they feel good about Brooks.

 

Tight End:  Personally, I think this draft has some potential at the TE position, and I am not sure that the Panthers will address both Z WR and TE–but I feel they will address one of them.  In my view, I would focus on the Z and give TE another year.  Reason?  Evans showed some promise and will enter year 2.  Sanders has been a bit of a disappointment, but he has potential as well (year 3).  Tremble has been tremendous as a blocker and is actually catching a few passes.  Sadiq would be nice, and there are some solid TE options in this draft, but I am afraid we’d be getting more of the same.  If you draft players on day 3, like all of our TEs, it seems that you need to develop them before casting them aside.

 

Center:  We are probably more respectable at the C position for 2026 than people realize.  Fortner is basically the equivalent of Cade Mays at a third of the price.  They are about the same age (27 and 26).  Luke Fortner is an center for the Carolina Panthers who earned a 66.5 overall PFF grade in the 2025 season, 18th among 40 qualified centers. He played 678 offensive snaps on the season. Fortner’s  PFF pass-blocking grade of 72.5 ranked 7th among 40 qualified centers in 2025. His run-blocking grade of 65.3 ranked 19th at the position.          Compare that to Mays, who was 24th among 40 qualified centers. He played 726 offensive snaps on the season.  His PFF pass-blocking grade of 69.4 ranked 13th among 40 qualified centers. His run-blocking grade of 58.5 ranked 33rd at the position.  Fortner is actually an upgrade, based on these numbers. To me, the mystery here is Nick Samac, who was originally drafted by the Ravens. The Panthers protected his roster spot last season, something I thought was interesting.  Word on the street is that they like him, but how much?  Samac is a great run blocker for a 24-year old; his issues are in pass protection.  We want to focus on the run, but with a dwarf at QB, we need the middle of the OL to hold up.  If Samac learns to widen his base and get good leverage, we could have a starting-caliber center on our hands at some point.  Is Samac why we let Mays walk?  Is Samac the reason Fortner only got a one-year deal?   Maybe, just maybe, Center is not a huge need.  I think we draft one, but maybe not as soon as you might think.  

 

Guard:  Hunt and Lewis are solid—and expensive–and knocking on the door of 30.  Hunt was injured for most of 2025, but Lewis was very solid.  Lewis: His PFF pass-blocking grade of 79.7 ranked 3rd among 81 qualified offensive guards. His run-blocking grade of 73.1 ranked 14th at the position. Contractually, there is not much we can do if we wanted to move on.  Hunt will count $24m against the cap; Lewis about $17m.  However, in 2027, when both are turning 31, we could save $19m (of $24m) on Hunt’s deal if we cut him post June 1 and $13m of Lewis’ deal if we cut him at any time.  At the same time, Bryce’s big money will kick in, making these moves nearly inevitable. Do not be surprised to see us draft a G this year.  Zavala sucked when he played, and you can expect two 30-year old guards to get banged up. Saahdiq is probably their top reserve guard, and he has been a bust since being drafted in round 4 by Washington.  We need someone for depth in 2026 and possibly to start in 2027.

 

Tackle:  Ekwonu in 2025: earned a 69.9 overall PFF grade in the 2025 season, 36th among 89 qualified offensive tackles. He played 942 offensive snaps on the season.  He was below average as a pass blocker in 2025 and above average as a run blocker.  (Sure sounds like a Guard BEFORE the injury).He allowed 40 total pressures in pass protection. That total included 5 sacks and 6 hits allowed to opposing pass rushers. He was flagged for 7 penalties over the course of the season.  These numbers are far from elite. However, since he needs the better part of a year to recover–and since we might need 2 guards in 2027, why not give him an incentive-laden GUARD contract and move him to his natural position?  I think I do that, realizing that he can play outside in a pinch (see Wharton, Travelle).  So when I consider Ickey’s return, considering his contract etc. I do not see a return to OT–guard is his position now.

 

• Walker, in my view, was the steal of free agency for the Panthers.  No, he is not an all-star, but he can play at a level I will call “average” for the LT position. In 2025 for the Packers, he earned a 64.6 overall PFF grade, 52nd among 89 qualified offensive tackles (slightly below average). He played 986 offensive snaps on the season.His PFF pass-blocking grade of 70.0 ranked 42nd among 89 qualified offensive tackles (average). His run-blocking grade of 55.4 ranked 71st at the position (well below average). He allowed 34 total pressures in pass protection. That total included 5 sacks and 1 hits allowed to opposing pass rushers. He was flagged for 9 penalties over the course of the season (very similar to Icky–better in pass pro, much worse in run blocking). 
• Moton: Our best offensive lineman by far. Moton earned a 80.5 overall PFF grade in the 2025 season, 15th among 89 qualified offensive tackles (above average). He played 901 offensive snaps on the season. His PFF pass-blocking grade of 76.5 ranked 21st among 89 qualified offensive tackles. His run-blocking grade of 81.9 ranked 12th at the position (Moton is elite). He allowed 22 total pressures in pass protection. That total included 3 sacks and 4 hits allowed to opposing pass rushers. He was flagged for 5 penalties over the course of the season.  Moton and trainers have been monitoring a “Chronic” knee condition (common in older OL). Moton feels that he can keep playing.  In my view, he can be cut after 2026 (post june 1) and the team would save $19m of his contract at age 33.  Depending how he plays and holds up in 2026, that is a real possibility.  
• Stone Forsythe: Sounds like a comic book detective.

 

Wide Receiver:   The Panthers are met with 105 position players in some way (from visits to pro day/combine meetings etc) 2026 Panthers Draft Visits Tracker”There are six potential first round picks on the list–four of them are wide receivers—KC Concepcion, Omar Cooper Jr., Denzel Boston, and Jordan Tyson (personal workout). Concepcion is from Charlotte, so the Panthers almost had to host him for a visit. It’d be an interesting allocation of resources to use three straight first-round picks on wide receivers, especially when an undrafted free agent has already usurped one of those first-round picks. The visits from projected Day 2 players are all over the map. Again, multiple wide receivers appear.  Of the 105 position players the Panthers met with, 15 were Wide Receivers.  They are doing their homework at Wide receiver.

 

• Tetairoa McMillan earned a 78.7 overall PFF grade in the 2025 season, 21st among 81 qualified wide receivers. His PFF receiving grade of 78.7 ranked 23rd among 81 qualified wide receivers (well above average). He hauled in 70 receptions on 120 targets for 1,014 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns. McMillan averaged 14.5 yards per reception on the season.  He generated 271 yards after the catch, demonstrating his ability to create with the ball in his hands. He was charged with 7 drops on the year (clean that up, TMac). His average depth of target was 12.3 yards, reflecting his role in the passing attack.  TMac is a strong X WR. 
• Jalen Coker: Before the last 7 games of 2025 (beginning Nov 16, 2025), Coker had 66 yards on 7 catches.  After that date, Coker exploded during the final 8 games (including the playoff game) for 462 yards in 35 catches. We need him healthy but he is a stud folks.  The best hands on the team–I would go as far as to say Ricky Proehl hands.  Yep.  
• Xavier Legette earned a 52.6 overall PFF grade in the 2025 season, 79th among 81 qualified wide receivers (rock bottom). His PFF receiving grade of 54.7 ranked 78th among 81 qualified wide receivers.(still on the bottom) He hauled in 35 receptions on 59 targets for 363 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. Legette averaged 10.4 yards per reception on the season.  He generated 74 yards after the catch, demonstrating his ability to create with the ball in his hands. He was charged with 1 drop (improvement). His average depth of target was 11.0 yards, reflecting his role in the passing attack.  His contract is not steep (under $4m) and it is fully guaranteed. Financially, it makes no sense to cut him based on the fact that we knew he was raw when we drafted him. The improvement in drops suggests that he is coachable, but his comments during pressers give me anxiety about his mental state. Let him compete.
• John Metchie III:  Maybe he needed another season with another team–a reunification with Bryce?  Not sure two drowning swimmers can pull each other back into the boat. At any rate, it is worth a shot. Low Risk, high reward?   John Metchie III is a wide receiver for the Carolina Panthers who earned a 57.6 overall PFF grade in the 2025 season, 74th among 81 qualified wide receivers. His PFF receiving grade of 58.7 ranked 73rd among 81 qualified wide receivers.He hauled in 33 receptions on 48 targets for 274 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. Metchie III averaged 8.3 yards per reception on the season.  He generated 144 yards after the catch, demonstrating his ability to create with the ball in his hands. He was charged with 4 drops on the year. His average depth of target was 5.5 yards, reflecting his role in the passing attack.
• Jimmy Horn:  They really do not throw it downfield to Horn much—just a reverse, screen guy.  I think there could be more.  He caught 11 passes of 13 targets (1 drop) in 2025 for 120 yards.  In comparison, fwiw, Steve Smith caught 10 passes (20 targets) for 154 yards during his rookie season.  Give him some time.
• Brycen Tremayne: Tremayne is one of those UDFAs that you root for.  A big (6’4” 212) WR with football intelligence (Stanford), Tremayne quietly had 160 yards in 2025 (14 catches/17 targets).  Not a super star, but an active special team player who can make plays on offense.

 

Overview:  If I am the Panthers, I forget about Ickey and Moton beyond 2026 as tackles. I pencil in Ickey at Guard and hope that he heals. Having said that, it is quite possible that our entire OL is different by 2027.  Hunt and Lewis will be 31 and their contracts will be ending (cuttable).  Our current starting center (Fortner) will be a free agent.  Our current starting LT will be a free agent.  Yikes. To make matters worse, Bryce’s expected contract (hard to say this) will make free agency an unlikely source for talent.  We need to start building the next room now. Does that mean first rounders?  Of course not.  Most of the guys in the first round this year would not have been last year–so grab kids that are risers “but not there yet.”  This draft is good at the bottom for OL talent–just not great at the top.  Take a few days 2-3.  Not ideal, but you can’t force it.  I think we kept Tremayne (WR) as a key backup, but he is a good fourth WR who can move inside and create mismatches, much like a pass-catching TE–so I do not expect TE in this draft unless we dive in early–Sadiq.  Developing your young talent is a better risk, imo.  Sanders has not scratched his potential and Evans showed some signs.  Tremble is getting better. If they think XL is about to turn the corner as the Z WR, they might go TE, but XL is, according to PFF, one of the worst WRs in the league.  Coker? On an opposite trajectory.  We need a Z WR more than we need a TE, so if we focus on needs on defense (S, LB, DE) and the offense (WR, OL) I am not seeing the luxury of adding a TE to play before our developmental players can reach their potential.  We really have no established depth at WR behind TMac and Coker, so expect a Z in the draft–early. I think they are going with Chuba, Brooks, Eteinne, and Dillon for now at RB.  QB?  It sure looks as though the are going to grab a UDFA to be the emergency QB.  One will fall out of the draft that has the potential to stick in the NFL–which is why we brought them in for visits–we want that team to be us.  I think this is the best evidence that we are “all in” on Bryce.

 

Predictions:  

• Round 1:  WR: I still think this is the biggest possibility for round 1 if you go by position.  A rare talent from Oregon (TE or S) could be the pick if the WRs don’t fall, and the same can be said for OL or DL.  This draft is very challenging, but the tea leaves say WR is an area they researched heavily.  By the way, they LOVE Texas Tech LB Rodriquez.  Met with him 3 times.  Do not be surprised…he is my darkhorse.   The betting lines, however, provide some interesting perspectives,and the player’s expected availability is factored in, so take with a grain of salt:

 

(Panther Wire)

For those of you who want an OT (I am not going to cry if we land a Proctor, for example–I totally get it), Morgan said this (in relation to Canales’ comments at the league meeting about the first rounder being an immediate starter):  “"I understand what Coach is saying in terms of—obviously, you want your first-round pick to be able to come in and contribute immediately. So, yeah, I'm kinda with him on that," Morgan stated when asked of Canales' comments.

"You want your first-round pick to play, but there's different scenarios to where maybe it takes a guy a little longer to develop, and he may not contribute right away. With some of the picks at different positions, it may take a little longer for those guys to develop, for sure."

That could apply to CB or OT, in my opinion.

 

• Round 2: This will probably be defense if they draft WR in round 1, but if they do not, expect the WR in round 2.  I do not see a WR after round 2 helping much–it would be better to go with the TE if that is the case.  I am of the mindset that XL will not emerge to reach his potential, a major indicator of my thinking on this. This will be a LB--they want Rodriguez but the will draft Hill or Golday if WR is taken in round 1.
• Round 3:  I see DL, S, and TE in my crystal football.  However, my night visions show us taking a TE--Max Klare from Ohio State. I see DE as perhaps our biggest need--but not many share my view--we never replaced Robinson. (This is tough to do)
• Day 3:  Expect OL OL and maybe DL. Our OL is in its last season together.  A total overhaul is ahead. Keep an eye on Jude Bowry and Austin Barber.  Mark my words!!

 

So that is it for the offense.  I hope you enjoyed this–by doing this, it helps me understand the currents and the nuances of the draft–I enjoy it more–so this is for me, shared with you.  I will take a look at D and try to share by Tuesday. If you appreciate this, see the link pinned in Huddle and help out if you can- Newborn Twin Granddaughters 

[Khyber53]

Great write-up! 

[MHS831]

2 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

Great write-up! 

Khyber, I found it interesting that Ty Simpson has about an 8% chance of becoming the pick at 19---that might indicate a trade--but would that not shake Panther nation up?

[Steves89]

Outstanding write up. As always. Thanks @MHS831!

[BEASTfromdaEAST]

Good write up OP.....

I may be the outlier here but I like our WR sans XL. Metchie is sneaky good and just like Dowdle last year he WILL BE the biggest under the radar singing of this year FA moves. I am warming up to the idea of Sadiq at 19 over defense. I'm just ready for every BY excuse to be gone, he doesn't have this or that. No he just sucks and we need to move on.

Honestly I've said it before but this team has been depleted of so much talent over the years we really could go BPA and be fine.

In DM I trust..........for now 

[TheSpecialJuan]

Joe Person could only dream of writing in-depth analysis like this 

[DaveThePanther2008]

@MHS831

Amazing write up.  Always a fan of your work.

I couldn't help but believing as I read this that shoring up the OL in this draft might be a priority.  LT is questionable especially if we were to move Icky inside. Hunt and Lewis might be done after this year, you think Moton is on his last leg and our Center might be one and done.  A lot of IFs.  IMO our most important group as long as we have Young at the helm.  I've said this before.  Our O-line HAS TO BEEN TOP TIER as long as Young is our QB.  

What I hope is that we address a couple of these early and Maybe, just maybe DM finds a couple UDFAs that help a least fill in depth in the O-Line.

[ClawOn]

Great stuff. There's a non-zero chance we take Simpson at 19?  can't wait for Thursday. 

[MHS831]

2 hours ago, ClawOn said:

Great stuff. There's a non-zero chance we take Simpson at 19?  can't wait for Thursday. 

I would doubt it, but since it being said, thought i would stir the pot.  I will be post a defensive analysis within a day or two.  

[SmokinwithWilly]

8 hours ago, MHS831 said:

Khyber, I found it interesting that Ty Simpson has about an 8% chance of becoming the pick at 19---that might indicate a trade--but would that not shake Panther nation up?

I can't see it happening. If we were seriously thinking about taking a 1st round QB, then there's no way we would have offered Bryce the 5th year. He would have played on the final year of his rookie contract. We've done just about everything possible to keep Bryce from being challenged or even the appearance of a challenge in the QB room. Drafting Simpson doesn't make sense if you look at what we've done with regards to our QB room the past 3 years. 

[ClawOn]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

I would doubt it, but since it being said, thought i would stir the pot.  I will be post a defensive analysis within a day or two.  

I doubt it too, but think Morgan is less tied to Young than the Huddle consensus believes

[Khyber53]

20 hours ago, MHS831 said:

Khyber, I found it interesting that Ty Simpson has about an 8% chance of becoming the pick at 19---that might indicate a trade--but would that not shake Panther nation up?

Right now, it would be the swerve that would make things incredibly interesting. 

Look, I've tried to be someone who says Bryce is developing and that he needed time to grow, especially under the same coaching staff for a few years. And, well, he has, but there's still a lot of room to grow left. I've also regularly couched that with the idea that Bryce's best position might be as a top end back up QB. That sounds like a slight, but that's a damned good job to have in this world.

If we chose to pick up Ty with that first round pick, it would set up some serious competition in training camp, pushing Bryce either to the next llevel (Dalton was there as a mentor/coach rather than competition) or giving Ty a chance to show he can win the day. At which point you have a new guy to develop and a couple of relatively inexpensive years with Bryce at QB2, adding to the mentorship or becoming trade material.

But let's say it happens and Bryce actually takes off like the Artemis rocket and goes way beyond our expectations and becomes a top 12 QB. Then you've got a young guy on the bench behind him with great credentials, no pressure to come in and compete on a rotten team (like the one Bryce was brought in to) and he'll be learning at the side of a coach that will have sealed his reputation as a QB-developing coach. And that creates the QB factory situation that we've seen in Green Bay back in the day or SF now... taking draftees or retreads, rehabbing them and trading them off for other players or draft picks.

If we take Ty, and I only think it's a minor chance, there's some upside to it and it would also signal that Morgan and Canales are happy with who they've picked up in the off season or developed here.

Sheesh, can't wait until draft night.