How good can Cam be? (eye popping article)

[teeray]

Fug it. Here is the article minus the charts:

Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton only threw for 171 yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, but that was all he needed to set his latest benchmark. Newton now has 3,893 passing yards this season, breaking Peyton Manning's rookie record of 3,739 set in 1998. Newton also has 14 rushing touchdowns, the most for any quarterback in a single season, rookie or otherwise. So, the obvious question becomes: Have we ever seen anyone -- or anything -- like this?

Frankly, no. At Football Outsiders, we use similarity scores to find historical matches for contemporary players. (Similarity scores were invented by baseball analyst Bill James and have since been used by many other statisticians for many other sports.) Our formula uses not just on-field performance, but also factors like size, age and experience in an attempt to predict each player's future.

Newton essentially breaks our similarity score system. He's on pace for 719 rushing yards. The only quarterbacks who have rushed for more than 700 yards since the merger are Michael Vick, Bobby Douglass and Randall Cunningham. (Vick has done it three times, and can make it a fourth with 114 yards against Washington next week. The Golden Calf of Bristol needs 56 yards against Kansas City to join the club.) The system doesn't know to do with all that ground yardage, and tries to match Newton up with occasional scramblers like Mark Brunell and Don Majkowski.

Newton's rushing ability is no fluke, and at 6-foot-5 and 248 pounds, there's no reason to expect his numbers on the ground to dissipate anytime soon. To get a better picture of his performance, let's separate his passing stats from his rushing stats. Since we can't find anyone who could run and throw like Newton, let's start with players who threw like him, then look for those who ran like him.

Projecting Newton's stats over 16 games gives us 315 completions, 525 attempts, 4,153 yards, 21 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, all at the tender age of 22. Here are the 10 quarterback seasons most similar to that since 1978:

Man, that's a good group of passers. Marino's in the Hall of Fame, Manning is on his way and Rodgers looks destined to join them. Newton's numbers right now look like what those guys were going in their second, third and fourth seasons. Daunte Culpepper (remember, this is looking at passing stats only) and Carson Palmer were two of the league's hottest young stars before their careers turned some. And then we have a bunch of guys from the 1980s. That could be a reflection of Newton's strong arm and long-ball style, which is rare in today's NFL. He's presently averaging 13.2 yards per completion. That would be one of the top 20 rates this century, but it would barely make the top 100 rates of the 1980s.

And Newton the rusher? He's projected to hit 128 carries for 719 yards and 15 touchdowns. Here are the running backs most similar to that since 1978 (not counting receiving stats):

Even restricting our list to running backs, it's hard to find players who have posted seasons like Newton. The touchdown totals start to drop pretty quickly. It's worth noting that Newton's four closest matches started their careers as parts of committees, but would go on to become not just feature tailbacks, but Pro Bowlers. That's the kind of ground game Newton brings to the table.

In short, it's fair to say that Newton has played like a young Peyton Manning and a rookie Herschel Walker all rolled into one. Any questions about who the rookie of the year should be?

[CharlotteBeer.com]

He's like the Aids virus crossed with H1N1, crossed with Ebola, there is no cure

He's like half man, half amazin'!

[mav1234]

It is hard to find a player to fit Cam. Honestly if you're going to go with a single player he reminds me of a more mobile pre-injury Culpepper. It's been a while but I felt like Culpepper utilized his legs in a different way than, say Big Ben(While Ben does scramble, I feel like it's play extension as opposed to breaking a defense in half...), and that is more like what Cam is doing now. But even then, what Cam can do is so much more...

I dunno, maybe I'm wrong, but that is who I am reminded of.

[footballisasport]

It's kind of crazy that we thought offenses would be behind due to the lockout but really it's the defenses that fell apart. All QBs have had excellent years. So no doubt that Cam and Dalton benefited from that. But they still are both special regardless.

I wish Jake Locker was thrown into the mix more for the Seahawks. I think he would have been just as impressive.

[tiger7_88]

I wish Jake Locker was thrown into the mix more for the Seahawks. I think he would have been just as impressive.

That would have been more impressive really.

Since he's under contract to the Tennessee Titans.

:D

[Mr. Scot]

I wish Jake Locker was thrown into the mix more for the Seahawks. I think he would have been just as impressive.

Kinda doubt it seeing as he plays for the Titans.

[restNChrist]

No doubt Cams a phenom as a rookie and this article points that out... but shouldn't we skip past talking about how good of a rookie season he's had and concentrate on the fact that this is one of the greatest seasons for a QB (or any position) ever, rookie or not! He's going to throw for 4000 yards and rush for 700! 60% on pass completions and 34 touchdowns... 14 rushing! Not to mention 8(?) records! Mike Vick who?

[BBQ&Beer]

Putting on my Troll hat on for a minute. Manning went up against harder defenses. Back then CB's could mug a wr those rules where relaxed after the 2002 season. Now it is easy for QB's put put up bigger numbers. Lets see how he handles his Sophomore year before we crown his ass.

Troll Hat off.

Very impressed with what Cam has done this season.

I agree with the sophomore bit, but its pointless to compare players by adding what was legal in their day because it just creates a round & round type argument. Ie, Things were tougher for Bradshaw & Staubach. Even worse for Bart Starr. Then the old guy who just sits & plays checkers in the barbershop pipes up with, "Hell! In Sid Luckman's day they had snipers in the stands!!"

[bauss]

Well he's broken a whole slew of records. Might as well add a benchmark or two in there too.

[ed bell]

I wish Jake Locker was thrown into the mix more for the Seahawks. I think he would have been just as impressive.

Aside from the wrong team part, what the hell? Just as impressive?

[Newtons2ndLaw]

I read this somewhere, but I feel like it's gonna be true.

Cam Newton = Micheal Jordan of Football.

He will make this team and everyone around him better. Anyone else feel it?

[hepcat]

I'm calling it here and now....he'll be the first QB to throw for 4000 yards and rush for 1000 in the same season.

[RevJ]

Putting on my Troll hat on for a minute. Manning went up against harder defenses. Back then CB's could mug a wr those rules where relaxed after the 2002 season. Now it is easy for QB's put put up bigger numbers. Lets see how he handles his Sophomore year before we crown his ass.

Troll Hat off.

Very impressed with what Cam has done this season.

I see that point, but why has it taken 13 years for someone to break it? It seems that Matt Ryan, Flacco, and others have been highly regarded, and played under the "new rules" but they still didn't break the record. Just sayin' . . .

[OneBadassCat]

I don't anticipate a drastic sophmore slump with Cam. Cam is capable of every sort of damage a QB can make. He can run like Vick and Young and pass like Brett Farve. Once he gets more settled in the art of Quaterbacking he will be limitless. Cam doesn't have some crutch that can be easily stopped and figured out rendering him useless, he's just too talented for that.