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Like I said before, I don't get the "only as a UDFA" sentiment, you have to keep following your board. Now if Pavia falls to what amounts to the supplementary UDFA section of the board, that's great, but if he's sitting at the top when you're picking day three (yes, I can't see him being drafted before day three), then you pull the trigger. Rounds 5-7 don't generally provide keepers anyway, you can use them for players that you want to take a closer look at that you may be able to develop. Pavia may not translate to the pros. Nobody would bet anything of value on it. But, he was highly productive in college due to his play extension abilities, "body torque" mechanics on short and intermediate throws, and good accuracy on said throws. And, he has that dawg in him to be sure. All that being said, Drew Allar will probably be able to be had on day three, and if it comes down to it--due to nothing but my prejudice against short, weak-armed QBs--I'd pick Allar. -
Yeah, receivers contracts are crazy, and it's probably not going to change. You almost have to take your swings--keep some picks at WR churning between rounds one through three in order to keep your costs down and give you options at contract time. Creating that value surplus appears to be more important at WR and all the premium positions than getting a non-premium position player who generally are just easier to replace as it pertains to value. The holy grail is to hit on a premium position late, but due to the gradually declining hit rate on days one and two that drops off a cliff day three, you basically have to get lucky.
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Very interesting indeed. It did make my head swim more. It said a lot, but it still didn't give any concrete answers. Kinda makes me want to pivot back towards a premium position though...
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