Happy's Final model vs Pete Prisco - how the NFL pans out

[Happy Panther]

I'm testing the theory that I can make the equivalent of computer monkeys do as well as the so called experts. I can't find Peter King's yet and if anyone has his final standings please post it. Prisco actually has some teams moving around which is more realistic. Prisco is getting to the point that people tend to not move teams around much and assume every game is going to be like 21-14.

 

My final standings. The Carolina result is mostly pure random variance not me manipulating the model.

 

 

Pete Prisco's

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/pete-prisco/24683167/predicting-every-nfl-game-heres-how-the-season-plays-out

[Happy Panther]

And Carolina Game by game. the model is not supposed to predict individual scores but I am listing what popped out for fun.

 

While the streaks are crazy the defense looks realistic rarely giving up more than 20. The model must think KB is going to have some big games.

 

Stranger things have happened.

 

[t96]

Seems a little unrealistic that all the NFC West teams are that bad outside of SF, who actually will likely be worse than 11-5. Also, that the Saints go 6-10, Green Bay 7-9 and New England 7-9 -- not happening, 3 of the 4 best QBs' teams won't be that bad. Houston will be better than 1-15, rarely does a team have the #1 pick two years in a row. I do believe we could go 13-3 (that's around our ceiling if our line can surprise people) but some of the rest seems a little ridiculous. I really hope I'm wrong and you're right because I love the way your standings have it other than the Whiners making the playoffs, but I just can't say that it's realistic.

[RoaringRiot]

I thought the first one you did have the Panthers only winning around 6 games.

Sent from my iPhone

[JJman]

Did you not predict us to go like 5-11 also with your little "computer" thing a couple months ago?

[Happy Panther]

I thought the first one you did have the Panthers only winning around 6 games.

Sent from my iPhone

Pretty much every iteration of this model has had the Panthers in the shitter.

[pstall]

7-9 wins is all i see. if we had one better guy at OL or wr, i might push it to 10-11 wins.

 

this is a very tough schedule. we absolutely have to go steal a win at TB for the opener. having the Lions and Steelers at home helps but they will be tough.

[TheRumGone]

7-9 wins is all i see. if we had one better guy at OL or wr, i might push it to 10-11 wins.

this is a very tough schedule. we absolutely have to go steal a win at TB for the opener. having the Lions and Steelers at home helps but they will be tough.

Last year mentality.

Let.

It.

Go.

[pstall]

Last year mentality.

Let.

It.

Go.

 

Nothing to let go off. An eyeball hunch from what i see on the field and the moves that were made/not made. I didn't expect 12-4 but I did expect 10-6.

I have no problem being wrong about this.

 

Add to the fact the NFC south ferris wheel and it's a natural call.

 

[TheRumGone]

Nothing to let go off. An eyeball hunch from what i see on the field and the moves that were made/not made. I didn't expect 12-4 but I did expect 10-6.

I have no problem being wrong about this.

Add to the fact the NFC south ferris wheel and it's a natural call.

I'm just pumped for the season opener. Thinking positively.

[Peppers90 NC]

i dont know what i'll do, but if tampa and chicago end in a tie, i will do something.

[Montsta]

I always thought it'd be interesting to add up the "experts" (lulz) predictions and cross reference it to schedule to see if it's even mathematically accurate.

I think they just poo out a record without even bothering to check sometimes. Like having two teams that play each other both going 16-0 for instance. Not that anyone has ever predicted that of course, but just used it to try and relay the point I'm making.

Sent from my iPhone using CarolinaHuddle

[pstall]

I'm just pumped for the season opener. Thinking positively.

Ok. We win 9.

[panthers55]

I love how folks say our schedule is easy or tough.  Truth is that most every game comes down to 4 or 5 plays that one team executes and the other does not. For example winning on the road is very tough in the NFL no matter who you play.  As for this week, this game will be very tough being their first game under Lovie and he and the team want to show how much they have improved and change the losing culture in Tampa.

On the other hand this is not a make or break game for us at this point.  With Cam hurt, our receivers and O line not yet gelling, this will be a cat fight.  We need things on special teams to go right and for the defense to come out of the blocks firing on all cylinders for us to have a good chance to win.  We have to do a much better job against their receivers than we did last year where they just threw it up and let their tall receivers jump over the Captain for example.