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Quarterly stat projections at wide receiver show we're a better team than last year in spite of our weaknesses

PhillyB

By PhillyB,
in Carolina Panthers

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PhillyB Grand Master

PhillyB

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…at least at that position. We've fallen off in other places obviously. But amidst the Steve Smith kerfluffle and the confluence of Dr. Doom posters co-authoring infallible predictions that the Panthers will gain exactly 6 yards from scrimmage on offense the next two years combined, projecting the first quarter of this season's receiving statistics suggests something quite different.

 

If, at the end of the year, the first four games prove to establish a mean of the entire season, here's what we'll look like at the end of the year:

  • Kelvin Benjamin ----- 84 rec, 1316 yds, 12 TD
  • Greg Olsen ----------- 84 rec, 1016 yds, 8 TD
  • Jerricho Cotchery -- 52 rec, 632 yds, 0 TD
  • Jason Avant --------- 40 rec, 360 yds, 4 TD
  • Philly Brown --------- 36 rec, 404 yds, 0 TD
  • Mike Tolbert --------- 32 rec, 236 yds, 0 TD
  • Jonathan Stewart --- 28 rec, 232 yds, 0 TD
  • Brenton Bersin ------ 12 rec, 196 yds, 0 TD
  • Darrin Reaves ------- 12 rec, 44 yds, 0 TD

That's a total of 4,436 yards receiving.

 

There are some obvious flaws in those extrapolations. Most likely, even if the distribution remains the same, Cotchery won't end the year with 0 TDs, and it's not terribly likely that Avant will end up with 4. Mike Tolbert will not get his full 236 yards receiving, and we'll likely see names pop up on this list that haven't caught a pass yet (some of Stewart's passes might go to Ed Dickson or Brandon Williams, or DeAngelo, who has yet to catch a pass out of the backfield.)

 

But here are five things that we can tell, provided, of course, these extrapolations (which come in spite of two very, very poor showings that comprise half our statistics, and in a time of the season when the Ron Rivera Panthers have proved to be slowest):

  • Cam Newton will throw for 4,055 yards, second-best personal record. Add in DA's touchdowns (a reasonable thing to do for the sake of analysis) and he's got 24 TDs and 0 INTs.
  • Kelvin Benjamin will win rookie of the year. 1300 yards and 12 TDs from a rookie. Cam will provably have his decade-long big motherfuger that we've all been pining here since he was sailing deep fades over Steve Smith's head a half dozen times every game.
  • Greg Olsen will break 1,000 yards receiving for the first time in his career. Even more importantly, this will mark the first time since Patrick Jeffers and Muhsin Mohammed were catching passes from Steve Beurlein back when Y2K fears were a thing that two Panthers receivers have eclipsed 1,000 yards.
  • Cam Newton will have totaled roughly 17,500 all-purpose yards in his first four years in Carolina, putting him half a season away from ousting Jake Delhomme as the franchise leader in that category.

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TLDR: in spite of our massive flaws, we're setting up for a historically good Panthers season in many ways, led by our much-maligned receiving corps, who will post the team's best receiving year since Steve Smith was catching punts in college.

 

 

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Guild Collaborator

Guild

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This doesn't surprise me at all.  The people going crazy about the receivers should have saved it for the OL.

 

Let's hope the Panthers can turn this production into a few more wins in spite of the inability to run the ball or otherwise block anyone.

 

Great post bro.

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PhillyB Grand Master

PhillyB

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worst o-line in the history of the NFL, two horrific, sphincter-clenching losses characterized by rutted playcalling, hobbled quarterback, decimation at tailback… and we're still on track to give cam the 2nd-best season of his career passing, by far the best in efficiency, and post all-time high receiving stats for the receivers (as a position group [including olsen] they'll outdo the 99 squad.)

 

given this i can't fathom not being incredibly pumped to go pummel the bears on sunday. i think we can do it.

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Mr. Scot Grand Master

Mr. Scot

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worst o-line in the history of the NFL, two horrific, sphincter-clenching losses characterized by rutted playcalling, hobbled quarterback, decimation at tailback… and we're still on track to give cam the 2nd-best season of his career passing, by far the best in efficiency, and post all-time high receiving stats for the receivers (as a position group [including olsen] they'll outdo the 99 squad.)

 

given this i can't fathom not being incredibly pumped to go pummel the bears on sunday. i think we can do it.

 

I can't imagine what this forum will be like if we don't :unsure:

 

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TheRumGone Grand Master

TheRumGone

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Stats are fun and cam is killing it in the pocket. But we need Tds. Especially in the red zone.

The defense is an enigma and will dictate what we should do on offense. If were stopping them on defense I have no problem with clock control. If their offense is beating us we have to open it up with the passing game. Because scrub Rbs and poo run blocking ain't gonna cut it.

Mike Shula for as much as I've supported him called probably his worst game this past Sunday.

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PhillyB Grand Master

PhillyB

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Stats are fun and cam is killing it in the pocket. But we need Tds. Especially in the red zone.

The defense is an enigma and will dictate what we should do on offense. If were stopping them on defense I have no problem with clock control. If their offense is beating us we have to open it up with the passing game. Because scrub Rbs and poo run blocking ain't gonna cut it.

Mike Shula for as much as I've supported him called probably his worst game this past Sunday.

 

agreed on all counts. for that kind of yardage and our abysmal run game (we have one touchdown on the ground, right?) 24 TDs passing isn't going to cut it.

 

IMO red zone playcalling is where we can improve the most. shula calls a decent game between the 20s and the moment we get into scoring range he seems to poo his pants.

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