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Todd McShay's First Mock Draft

nctarheel0619

By nctarheel0619,
in Carolina Panthers

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nctarheel0619 Newbie

nctarheel0619

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1.Marcus Mariota
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12)COLLEGE: OregonClass: JrHT: 6-4WT: 211POS: QB
Analysis: Mariota is a dynamic athlete with excellent top-end speed. He is elite at throwing on the run. He has a quick and compact over-the-shoulder release, and he possesses excellent intangibles. The concern I have with him is that while he's good with his anticipation and accuracy when passing from inside the pocket (and he's gotten better at it this season), he isn't great -- and that's the most important quality for QBs transitioning to the NFL level. Is that enough of a risk for the Bucs, a team in serious need of a franchise quarterback, to pass on him? Maybe, or perhaps they would wind up giving Winston a higher grade. But I just can't see either of these guys sliding out of the top 10. This is as shallow of a draft at the QB position as I can remember -- at least in the past several years.
 
 
2.Jameis Winston
Tennessee Titans (2-12)COLLEGE: Florida StateClass: SophHT: 6-4WT: 235POS: QB
Analysis: Winston has all the tools to be great on the field as an NFL quarterback. He excels from inside the pocket, has prototypical size, can drive the ball downfield and to the outside hashes, and displays very good game-management skills and on-field leadership. But his off-field behavior to this point frightens me. The Titans and any team that considers drafting him are going to have to be comfortable with what they find when they look into his past, and with his psychological testing. But as I mentioned in the Mariota section, even if one or two teams that need a QB pass on either of these top two QBs, I don't think they all will. It's hard to envision either getting out of the top 10, at this point.
 
 
3.Leonard Williams
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12)COLLEGE: USCClass: JrHT: 6-5WT: 290POS: DE
Analysis: The Jaguars have a much bigger need on the offensive line than on the defensive line -- and overall, the defense is in much better shape than the offense -- but there's too much of a talent gap between the top D-linemen and top O-linemen prospects in this class, and the Jags could afford to get younger at the position with Red Bryant already 30 years old. Williams is the No. 1 prospect on our board, with excellent strength and speed for his size, and he'd fit as a 5-technique defensive end in Gus Bradley's scheme. The Jags could also go with an edge rusher here in Nebraska's Randy Gregory or Missouri's Shane Ray, or with a big-time playmaker at wide receiver in Alabama's Amari Cooper.
 
 
4.Randy Gregory
Oakland Raiders (2-12)COLLEGE: NebraskaClass: JrHT: 6-6WT: 245POS: DE
Analysis: The Raiders need an edge rusher, and the presence of Gregory and Khalil Mack along the same front seven would create problems for opposing offensive lines for seasons to come. I actually have a slightly higher grade on Ray than I do Gregory, but Gregory has the length to be a better fit as a 4-3 right defensive end. He needs to add strength to succeed in the NFL, as right now he is lean and can get pushed around a bit against the run. But he is a very good pass-rusher with his lateral quickness and closing speed.
 
 
5.Shane Ray
Washington Redskins (3-11)COLLEGE: MissouriClass: JrHT: 6-2WT: 240POS: DE
Analysis: The Redskins need a lot of help on defense, and in particular could use a legit pass-rusher with Brian Orakpo unable to stay healthy and Trent Murphy currently starting opposite Ryan Kerrigan. Ray would help immediately. I studied the Missouri defense on tape a lot during last season's draft process, and it was Ray who jumped out on tape as the most talented player on a front that included Kony Ealy and Michael Sam. He is an absolutely relentless pass-rusher who is tough, aggressive, can bend the end and has an explosive first step. He's also versatile and has improved his ability to convert speed to power.
 
 
6.Amari Cooper
New York Jets (3-11)COLLEGE: AlabamaClass: JrHT: 6-1WT: 205POS: WR
Analysis: In this scenario, Mariota and Winston are already off the board. The Jets are desperate enough to find a franchise quarterback that they could trade up a few spots to draft either player if they fall in love with one, but if they're stuck at this spot, I think they should take the best player available in Cooper. They need O-line help, but the top-rated prospect on my board, Brandon Scherff from Iowa, is best-suited to play guard at the next level. He'll be a great one for a long time, but the No. 6 overall pick is a steep price to pay for a great guard. Percy Harvin provides no guarantees, and Cooper would be an upgrade over Eric Decker, who is really best-suited to be a No. 3 WR. He'd provide a great target for whenever the Jets find their guy at QB.
 
 
7.Dante Fowler Jr.
Atlanta Falcons (5-9)COLLEGE: FloridaClass: JrHT: 6-2WT: 271POS: DE
Analysis: There's a drop-off in talent after the first six prospects, so no matter which player I assign to the Falcons it feels like a reach. I'm also not going to lose too much sleep over which pass-rusher I place here on Dec. 17, since the Falcons still have a chance to win the NFC South and wind up picking in the 20s. Fowler has the size, quickness, power and relentless motor you look for in a defensive end. He also has experience playing all along the D-line, including occasionally dropping into underneath zone coverage, and that versatility adds to his value.
 
 
8.Vic Beasley
New York Giants (5-9)COLLEGE: ClemsonClass: SrHT: 6-2WT: 220POS: DE
Analysis: Iowa's Brandon Scherff would be a consideration here, given the Giants' needs along the O-line, but they'd have to be convinced he's a tackle and not a guard (I think he's a guard) to justify taking him at No. 8 overall. The defense has shown improvement in the second half of the season, but it needs another legitimate pass-rushing threat to complement Jason Pierre-Paul (who is a free agent this offseason), and Beasley is a difference-maker in that role. His first-step quickness and closing speed are near elite. He plays bigger than his size, but he's still only 220-230 pounds, so he may fit better as a SLB and when turned loose as a pass-rusher.
 
9.Landon Collins
Chicago Bears (5-9)COLLEGE: AlabamaClass: JrHT: 6-0WT: 212POS: S
Analysis: Safety was a need area for Chicago in last year's draft, and the Bears didn't address the position until the fourth round when they selected Brock Vereen. He's a solid player, but certainly not the talent that Collins is. Collins is a very impressive athlete for the safety position, with a strong, compact build, quick feet, and good length and leaping ability. He's a good open-field tackler, possesses good ball skills and plays with an edge. The Bears need all the help they can get on defense.
 
 
10.Brandon Scherff
Carolina Panthers (5-8-1)COLLEGE: IowaClass: SrHT: 6-4WT: 320POS: OT
Analysis: Scherff reminds me a lot of Zack Martin, the Cowboys' first-round pick at No. 16 overall in the 2014 draft, in that he could be a good starting right tackle in the NFL or a great starting guard. He possesses excellent strength and toughness, and is perfectly wired for life as an NFL offensive lineman. The Panthers really need to get better in pass protection for QB Cam Newton, as they haven't done well this year following Jordan Gross' 2013 retirement. Byron Bell has been just decent at left tackle, and right tackle has been a problem area with Nate Chandler and now David Foucault.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/mock/?season=2015

 

I'm glad David Foucault has started at right tackle the past three games, Todd.  You are one dumb idiot.  

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    • hepcat
      The NFL seems to be intent on killing the Panthers season this weekend, per the ref assignment

      By hepcat · Posted

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If you believe the referee influences the game, Smith's presence suggests the Panthers will struggle to get "home cooking" calls and may face untimely procedural flags that stall drives. The Panthers have only had Shawn Smith officiate four home games since he became a head referee in 2018, and they are all losses. Date Opponent Result Score Nov 24, 2024 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Loss 27–30 Oct 9, 2022 vs. San Francisco 49ers Loss 15–37 Dec 12, 2021 vs. Atlanta Falcons Loss 21–29 Nov 25, 2018 vs. Seattle Seahawks Loss 27–30   Considering the how rare it is for Shawn Smith to officiate a Panthers game at all, this seems like an odd time to assign him to a Panthers game, unless the NFL wants to kill the Panthers season once and for all.  The Panthers' offensive line situation creates a "perfect storm" for referee Shawn Smith's specific tendency to call False Starts on the home team. The "Carousel" Factor (Communication Vulnerability) The most damning stat for the Panthers' offensive line in 2025 is their lack of continuity. The Stat: By Week 13, the Panthers had already fielded their 10th different offensive line combination. The Impact: False starts are often "communication penalties"—they happen when a guard doesn't hear the center's snap count or a tackle anticipates the wrong cadence. A unit that hasn't played together struggles with non-verbal communication. The Shawn Smith Multiplier: Shawn Smith’s crew calls False Starts at a high rate on home teams. He will likely look for flinches on the exterior of the line. A disjointed line that is constantly rotating players (due to the injuries of starters like Cade Mays and the illness issues with Robert Hunt earlier this season) is "fresh meat" for this specific referee bias. The Specific Culprits (2025 Penalties) Ikem Ekwonu (LT): Leads the team with 4 False Start penalties this season. He is the most frequent violator on the line. Taylor Moton (RT): Has been flagged for 3 False Starts. The Trap: Smith’s crew often focuses on the tackles (the players furthest from the ball) jumping early to get an edge on speed rushers. Since Ekwonu struggles with this discipline naturally, having a referee who hunts for it is a massive disadvantage. The "Managed Outcome" Synthesis The "Bucs Cover" Script: If the desired outcome is a Buccaneers win to solidify their playoff standing, the officials simply have to apply the letter of the law. Calling strict False Starts on a confused, banged-up Panthers O-line will consistently put them in "3rd and Long" situations, killing their drives and allowing the Bucs (-3.5) to cover easily. The "Close Game" Script: If the desired outcome is "Week 18 Drama" (keeping the division tied), look for the officials to ignore the Panthers' twitchy tackles. 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These drive-killers will force them to punt or settle for field goals, while the Bucs' offense (led by Mayfield) stays on schedule. 3. The "TV Product" Counter-Argument You asked about the "Managed Outcome." While a Panthers win creates "chaos," the NFL also values Star Power in the playoffs. Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers are a proven national TV draw with recent playoff history. If the league has to choose between "Chaos" (Panthers) and "Ratings/Legitimacy" (Bucs), the "Script" likely leans toward ensuring the Buccaneers—the more marketable team—secure the division lead. They won't "fix" the game against the Panthers, but they won't intervene to save them from their own penalties. Final Verdict Betting on the Panthers requires you to hope for a miracle 4th-quarter collapse. Betting on the Buccaneers requires you to trust that a superior roster—aided by a favorable officiating crew—will control the game for the first 45 minutes. Take the Buccaneers Moneyline. The "Safe" money is on the Ref. The Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Win and Cover Projected Score: Buccaneers 27, Panthers 17 The Bet: Buccaneers -3 (or Moneyline -165) Confidence Level: High on the Winner; Moderate on the Spread (due to potential "garbage time" variance).
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