Jags Preseason Week 3 Game Observations

[carolinascats]

*This could have been discussed in an earlier Jacksonville discussion thread, but I didn't go through them all to check.

So I've seen a few football people who are leaning towards the Jags in our week 1 matchup, and part of their reasoning seemed to be how they had looked in preseason.  Because of this I decided to go back and watch the first half of their week 3 preseason matchup versus the Lions to see what the hype was about.  After watching the game, it is easy to see why someone could interpret it positively for the Jags.  However, when you actually look deeper than just the score line, there is good reason for Panthers fans to fee confident.  

Reasons

1) The Jags could not stop the run: Detroit would have scored more earlier, but they got in their own way with an early penalty and by forgetting to run the ball.  The Lions averaged 5.4 yards per rush, and this wasn't just made up by late scrubs running up the number.  Early on the Lions got great push and seemed to run the ball mostly at will against the Jags.  All of their backs were seeing positive results.

2) The Jags could not run the ball: Compare Detroit's 5.4 yards per rush to the Jags only managing 2.5.  It looked like Yeldon was constantly running into a wall.  The Jags were not getting good push up front, and it made their running game mostly ineffective.  The Jags did get a rushing TD from Yeldon, but it really didn't look like he had crossed the goal line, and he was hammered as he tried to cross (see Vine below).  If they hadn't called it a TD on the field, it wouldn't have been a TD.  

3) Because the Jags could not run the ball, they were constantly in 3rd down:  This is the part of the game that can mislead people who didn't watch the actual game.  Because they could not run the ball, the Jags were constantly having to convert 3rd downs.  Here, the view can differ.  Either the Lions played horribly on 3rd down, or the Jags played really well on 3rd down.  In reality, it was probably a mix of both, but the Jags started the game well because they were either 7/7 or 8/8 to convert 3rd downs to open the game.  The Lions just did nothing to stop them at all.  I personally think this is a bit of an outlier and isn't reflective of how things will continue for the Jags throughout the season.  Compare that for the total game, the Jags had a 3rd down conversion rate of 13/17 (76.5%) compared to their average for the 2014 season of 32% which was the 4th worst in the NFL.  While I think the Jags will improve compared to last year, I don't expect them to have similar success against our defense on 3rd down.

So overall, I can see why other people saw the stat lines or saw some Jags drives and saw the positives.  However, when I look at the matchup from a Panthers perspective, the three points above basically define how the Panthers want to play: run the ball, stop the run, and force the other team to try and convert 3rd downs to move the ball down the field which is difficult against our defense.  While the Jags are an up and coming team, after watching their week 3 preseason game I now feel very optimistic about coming out of week 1 with a win.       

[X-Clown on 1]

We have:

[countryboi]

Running the ball and stopping the run is our bread and butter....at least thats what they say. Im more worried about our running game than anything

[Ivan The Awesome]

But jags fans are saying they are going to stop our run and run it down our throats... 

[hepcat]

The only thing that worries me about this game is that the Panthers typically play like garbage the first game of the year, and this goes WAAAAAYYY back. Even last year when the entire game they dominated the Bucs, they still almost lost the game at the end if it weren't for a timely drop by a Bucs DB (AWFUL throw by Anderson), and a forced fumble caused by Kuechly.

[Mr. Scot]

Nice analysis.

[FattyFatFat]

*This could have been discussed in an earlier Jacksonville discussion thread, but I didn't go through them all to check.

So I've seen a few football people who are leaning towards the Jags in our week 1 matchup, and part of their reasoning seemed to be how they had looked in preseason.  Because of this I decided to go back and watch the first half of their week 3 preseason matchup versus the Lions to see what the hype was about.  After watching the game, it is easy to see why someone could interpret it positively for the Jags.  However, when you actually look deeper than just the score line, there is good reason for Panthers fans to fee confident.  

Reasons

1) The Jags could not stop the run: Detroit would have scored more earlier, but they got in their own way with an early penalty and by forgetting to run the ball.  The Lions averaged 5.4 yards per rush, and this wasn't just made up by late scrubs running up the number.  Early on the Lions got great push and seemed to run the ball mostly at will against the Jags.  All of their backs were seeing positive results.

2) The Jags could not run the ball: Compare Detroit's 5.4 yards per rush to the Jags only managing 2.5.  It looked like Yeldon was constantly running into a wall.  The Jags were not getting good push up front, and it made their running game mostly ineffective.  The Jags did get a rushing TD from Yeldon, but it really didn't look like he had crossed the goal line, and he was hammered as he tried to cross (see Vine below).  If they hadn't called it a TD on the field, it wouldn't have been a TD.  

3) Because the Jags could not run the ball, they were constantly in 3rd down:  This is the part of the game that can mislead people who didn't watch the actual game.  Because they could not run the ball, the Jags were constantly having to convert 3rd downs.  Here, the view can differ.  Either the Lions played horribly on 3rd down, or the Jags played really well on 3rd down.  In reality, it was probably a mix of both, but the Jags started the game well because they were either 7/7 or 8/8 to convert 3rd downs to open the game.  The Lions just did nothing to stop them at all.  I personally think this is a bit of an outlier and isn't reflective of how things will continue for the Jags throughout the season.  Compare that for the total game, the Jags had a 3rd down conversion rate of 13/17 (76.5%) compared to their average for the 2014 season of 32% which was the 4th worst in the NFL.  While I think the Jags will improve compared to last year, I don't expect them to have similar success against our defense on 3rd down.

So overall, I can see why other people saw the stat lines or saw some Jags drives and saw the positives.  However, when I look at the matchup from a Panthers perspective, the three points above basically define how the Panthers want to play: run the ball, stop the run, and force the other team to try and convert 3rd downs to move the ball down the field which is difficult against our defense.  While the Jags are an up and coming team, after watching their week 3 preseason game I now feel very optimistic about coming out of week 1 with a win.       

Great write up. Good analysis of what you saw based on facts. If star can't go on Sunday, hopefully love or whoever fills in will be effective vs. their run blocking. Our d line vs their oline will be the key to winning the game.

[2jakefansinva]

Only thing that worries me about this game is the temperature.

Hopefully we catch a break 

 

just checked it........83 w/ 60% chance of rain

[uncfan888]

Only thing that worries me about this game is the temperature.

Hopefully we catch a break 

 

just checked it........83 w/ 60% chance of rain

yeah, it won't be any different than here. which is nice for all of us going down

[Jackofalltrades]

The only thing that worries me about this game is that the Panthers typically play like garbage the first game of the year, and this goes WAAAAAYYY back. Even last year when the entire game they dominated the Bucs, they still almost lost the game at the end if it weren't for a timely drop by a Bucs DB (AWFUL throw by Anderson), and a forced fumble caused by Kuechly.

But they did win, on the road, with a back up QB. Style doesnt matter in the win/lose column.

[FattyFatFat]

yeah, it won't be any different than here. which is nice for all of us going down

I'm jelly