DRAFT ANALYSIS: CBs - potential availability by round

[KB_fan]

Over in the NFL Draft forum I've been posting the past few days about CBs.  First I compiled a list of the consensus top 23 - 25 CBs from 12 different big boards, then I started looking at which of these players could be available in different rounds of the drafts when the Panthers pick, similar to what I did a few weeks ago here in the Panthers forum for DEs and DTs.

Late last night I had a brainstorm about a better way to present the info on potential availability by round.  Here's the table I produced for CBs.  The middle section shows the actual position at which each player was drafted in six 7-round mock drafts I did using 6 different boards at fanspeak.  On the right is the average of those picks, and then the results in terms of % availability at each of the Panthers' picks through rounds 1 - 5.  (I didn't bother to include availability for round 7.)

The table below is sorted in order of Average Pick position:

You can read more about the details of this table, and my conclusions about which CBs we might pick when here:

But before I go ahead and do this kind of analysis for other positions, a few questions?

1) Is it helpful / clear?  Any suggestions to improve format? 

2) Should I keep posting this kind of thing in the NFL Draft forum, or do people want it here in the Panthers' forum?  (Moderators, feel free to tell me what's best).

[ecu88]

Why pie not let me give more pie! This breakdown by KB is amazing.  Awesome job and hands down KB is the dudette when it comes to breakdowns for stats!

[Bartin]

I think it's fantastic. I imagine at some point you would compile all the positions in the same place which would be a fantastic resource to have at one's disposal during the draft or for idiots, like me, who waste time doing mock drafts.

[KB_fan]

Some of the things I'm debating about whether to tweak:

1) I need to deal better with players who go undrafted.  Right now Calhoun & Young are ranked above Seymour.  It's not that big a deal, but Seymour was drafted in each mock draft, while Calhoun & Young were not always picked.  I'm thinking I should assign a value of 300 to a player who goes undrafted....

2) Over in the right hand percentages side, I'm not quite sure how to indicate when a player is probably a reach.  Opinions on players differ.  Should I always show 100% availability? Or is the way I have it now fairly obvious, where the 100% indication is removed in some of the early rounds when a player is generally picked in the mid-late rounds?

3) My breakdown of the players into quadrants (with the heavy lines and colors) for rounds 1 - 5 is based on the average draft pick rating of a player.  But I'm not sure it's actually that helpful and accurate.  For instance a player like Jalen Mills' AVERAGE draft pick position is in round 3, but half the time he's picked in round 2....  Personally I find the divisions and colors helpful, but I'm not sure that others will, especially if the average doesn't always closely reflect the round a player is drafted.

4) I'm working on a laptop, not a mobile platform, so don't know how this shows up on mobile devices.  (Sizes / color).  If there are issues, please let me know, and I'll see what i can do. 

5) If people want me to include the spreadsheet as an attached file (Excel), let me know, I can do that too.

[chknwing]

[Captain Morgan]

1 hour ago, ecu88 said:

Why pie not let me give more pie! This breakdown by KB is amazing.  Awesome job and hands down KB is the dude when it comes to breakdowns for stats!

 

dudette, actually.  I often wonder about this so-called job she has....unless they are actually paying her to post here.  She's works harder on this board than I do at my real job.

 

[The Huddler]

this is crap

 

 

 

great job dude

[CarolinaNCSU]

KB_fan, seriously....you've been a helluva addition to this place. 

[Crazydounut]

2nd/3rd round is when we will pick a CB. Expect that immediate impact player Gettleman is talking about for our first round pick

[KB_fan]

1 hour ago, Captain Morgan said:

 

dudette, actually.  I often wonder about this so-called job she has....unless they are actually paying her to post here.  She's works harder on this board than I do at my real job.

Life in West Africa gets boring.... not a lot of outlets for social activities.  I have a lot of flexibility in my work and big swings in terms of busyness.  Some intensely busy weeks and then stretches where I have a lot of hours to kill in the office - needing to be at my desk and available to colleagues if needed, but not a lot of appointments or reports to work on ...so that can equal lots of time to Huddle!

Plus, I do love data analysis and it's been very fun for me to apply it to football and discover new ideas in how to compile and present data...  Analyzing football is more fun than crunching yet more stats on child malnutrition or women's illiteracy - stats I pretty much know in my sleep after many years of being involved in program management for relief & development orgs is West Africa.

[KB_fan]

2 hours ago, Bartin said:

I imagine at some point you would compile all the positions in the same place which would be a fantastic resource

Sure, I can do that, though maybe not every position.  Personally I'm most interested in DE, DT, CB, and WR - all positions which have some good depth. 

After that I'll see if I have time for Oline (or perhaps just OT specifically), Safeties & RBs. 

Doubt I'll get to QBs or LBs.  TEs interest me, but there aren't too many good ones, maybe only 3 - 4 that seem worth looking at...

I think for now I'll keep posting in the NFL draft forum, but before the draft, I'll make a thread here compiling all the tables I've been able to do.

[nctarheel0619]

I gotta see a picture of KB_fan.  No way a female is this deep into football.

It almost seems impossible.  

[SpclKen]

Question, on the average pick position did you account for positional scarcity? For example, a big board may have 35 O line in the top 100 prospects, but positional history says that there are only 20 picks on average for oline in the first 100 picks.

I am thinking that in early rounds CBs are valued higher because of the passing nature of the NFL right now. So they should scale higher much like RBs should scale lower in rounds 1 and 2 because of the decreased value of the position by teams despite having top talent in this class.

 

Did that make any sense whatsoever?

.

[TheSpecialJuan]

1 hour ago, KB_fan said:

Life in West Africa gets boring.... not a lot of outlets for social activities.  I have a lot of flexibility in my work and big swings in terms of busyness.  Some intensely busy weeks and then stretches where I have a lot of hours to kill in the office - needing to be at my desk and available to colleagues if needed, but not a lot of appointments or reports to work on ...so that can equal lots of time to Huddle!

Plus, I do love data analysis and it's been very fun for me to apply it to football and discover new ideas in how to compile and present data...  Analyzing football is more fun than crunching yet more stats on child malnutrition or women's illiteracy - stats I pretty much know in my sleep after many years of being involved in program management for relief & development orgs is West Africa.

Great job, thanks