Who will already be gone at 30?--Here's a worst case scenario/projection type exercise...

[davos]

I've always found this to be an interesting way to project the draft--breaking down who should without a doubt be gone.  I'm giving it a shot (We've met with the asterisked/bold names):

1. OT Laremy Tunsil

2. OLB Myles Jack - There's a lot of hype around this kid right now. 

3. CB/S Jalen Ramsey

4. QB Carson Wentz

5. DE Joey Bosa - He may fall a tad but he's going top-12

6. RB Ezekiel Elliott

7. OT Ronnie Stanley

8. QB Jared Goff

9. ILB Reggie Ragland - We're not focused on LBs as fans but the top talent is quite good this year

10. DE/DT DeForest Buckner - a 3-4 team will definitely find a place for this guy

11. OLB Leonard Floyd

That's 11 for me that I have no hesitation thinking it will take little time for them to be drafted.  They're pretty much who I'm guessing are the the perceived top-tier by many teams.  Not many so far. 

--

 

Here's a mid tier I'm pretty darn sure should be gone:

13. **DT A'Shawn Robinson

14. **DE Kevin Dodd

15. **DE Shaq Lawson

16. OT Jack Conklin

17. OLB Jaylon Smith

18-20. WR 3 (**Coleman, **Treadwell, Doctson)

21.**DT Jarran Reed

22. CB Vernon Hargreaves

23. **OL Germain Ifedi

24. TE Hunter Henry - I think there's a team that goes after him before us IMO.  The Colts among others are possible. 

--

 

So we're up to ~24 without a true safety really being taken--the tops at most of the other big positions are covered. 3 4-3 DEs.  Now don't get me wrong, one of these mid-tiers could end up being our pick but this is where combining other teams' needs, potential trades, and reaches gets very hard to project.  2 unrelated notables: Lynch could go before our pick who we don't need and I think Nkemdiche absolutely plummets. 

--

 

Now with potentially around 5 picks to go, here's some notables/potential fits I've seen being mocked in/around the 1st/2nd (and this is with me being pretty lenient with a lot of DLs taken already):

(9 DLs) **Chris Jones, **Vernon Butler, **Noah Spence (I find it weird we met him), **Emmanuel Ogbah, Andrew Billings, Sheldon Rankins, Jonathan Bullard, Hassan Ridgeway, Willie Henry

(1 RB) **Derrick Henry

(2+ WRs) **Sterling Shepard, **Tyler Boyd, Will Fuller

(3 CB) **Mac Alexander, Eli Apple, William Jackson III

(5 Safeties) **Vonn Bell, **Su'a Cravens, Karl Joseph, Keanu Neal

(5 OLs) Jason Spriggs, Cody Whitehair, Ryan Kelly, Le'Raven Clark, Taylor Decker

--

 

 

It's hard to do this without noticing the glaring evenly matched level of talent from late 1 to early round 3 this year. 

MY QUESTION: Do any of these guys jump out to you?  In this scenario, who would you want the most? It's easy to just say trade down so I'm interested to hear some preferences.

In my opinion, this makes taking Henry, Cravens or a DL much more appealing. 

Edit:
Thank you for reading:

[Jeremy Igo]

IN your scenario Derrick Henry is the pick. 

[juliosantos]

HENRY

[chknwing]

I'm pretty sure I will be so nervous that I will be drinking heavily and by the time carolinas pick comes I will be gone.

[Dex]

I think I may literally throw up if we pick Henry in the first. But then I will remember we have Gman and everything will be okay. I'm just afraid I won't be able to stop my gut reaction.

[TheSpecialJuan]

Interesting scenario. What is so exciting is that there will be at least half a dozen players available at 30 that I believe Gettleman will be interested in.

I agree with Jeremy in that we will select an offense player at 30. Specifically, an offensive playmaker.

Look at our free agency class this year (Robinson, Soliai, Boykin) it's all defense. Gettleman purposely plugging holes on D so he can focus on offense.

[stan786]

Jones or Bullard would be the most useful pick there. Versatile D lineman who can play both end and tackle would significantly help our depth.

[Mr. Scot]

Listening to the usual chatter on this board over the past few years, everybody will be gone by the time we pick.

[TheSpecialJuan]

Gettleman probably still hasn't seen the Super Bowl game tape but he was there so he saw what happened. He saw we clearly need better offensive options.

[davos]

4 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Listening to the usual chatter on this board over the past few years, everybody will be gone by the time we pick.

Ok? Not what I'm getting at but whatevs. 

[jdpanther5]

If I had to guess...Goff, Wentz, Elliott, Tunsil, Stanley, Conklin, Decker, Treadwell, Coleman, Doctson, Bosa, Buckner, Lawson, Dodd, Reed, Robinson, Rankins, Billings, Jack, Ragland, Lee, Floyd, Ramsey, Hargreaves, Alexander, Jackson, and Apple will be gone ahead of us, plus maybe another team takes a QB in Lynch. 

So that's 27-28 names, and still a lot of talent on the board: Henry x2, Thomas, Fuller, Shepard, Spriggs, Ifedi, Kelly, Ogbah, Spence, Butler, Jones, Nkemdiche, Burns, Joseph, Cravens, Bell, etc. Plus Jaylon Smith is a total wildcard. Top 3 talent, could free fall though depending on the medical re-check. 

[uscgamecocks]

For the record, I'm assuming Billings, Rankins, and one or two of those CBs would also go ahead of our picks.

Personally, I'd take Shepard in that situation - and trust that one of the remaining DL or S I liked would be there in round 2.  I could talk myself into Bullard as well, I just really love the idea of what Shepard would bring to our offense.

I still think there is a decent chance one of the Clemson DEs is there at 30.  And if a blue goose is there Gettleman probably bites.

.

[davos]

8 minutes ago, uscgamecocks said:

For the record, I'm assuming Billings, Rankins, and one or two of those CBs would also go ahead of our picks.

Personally, I'd take Shepard in that situation - and trust that one of the remaining DL or S I liked would be there in round 2.  I could talk myself into Bullard as well, I just really love the idea of what Shepard would bring to our offense.

I still think there is a decent chance one of the Clemson DEs is there at 30.  And if a blue goose is there Gettleman probably bites.

.

The case with the 4-3 DEs is interesting and could rely on how far Bosa falls.  If it takes until pick 9+ for him to go, then Dodd or Lawson could very well fall to us.  When thinking of the amount of 4-3 defenses and R1 offensive fits; a lot could actually ride on who/when takes Bosa creating a domino effect. 

Overall--Usually there's 1-3 guys I just really want and this year it's Shepard, Killebrew, & Judon...and I don't know if we'll be in position for some without a trade.  Therefore, I'm trying to stay as open as possible haha.     

[nickzz]

1 hour ago, Dex said:

I think I may literally throw up if we pick Henry in the first. But then I will remember we have Gman and everything will be okay. I'm just afraid I won't be able to stop my gut reaction.

i'm with you man.

 

PLEASE NO HENRY IN THE FIRST. honestly don't even want him in the 2nd.