Panthers look strong after week 1

[KB_fan]

Here's some interesting stats (at least interesting to me).

As is no surprise to most Panthers fans, we have not typically started off guns blazing on offense in week 1 in recent seasons.  I decided to compare week 1 totals since 2011 to season totals for points scored and points allowed.  Here are the tables.

First:  POINTS SCORED

Wow, how's that for consistency.  20 points scored in week 1 three years in a row! 

In 2014 and 2015, those 20 points  were good enough to win, but we were playing the lowly Jags and Bucs, not the SB Champs.

Our week 1 point total averages 16.3 over the past 6 seasons.   Our points scored average in all games from 2011 - 2015 is 24.6 points.  So, on average, we've only scored 66% of our season average in week 1 games.  Our offense typically improves over the course of the season.

Week 1 losses are of course even farther from the average point scores for the season - only 59% of the average.

So, if recent trends continue, we might be able to expect a season points total average of 30-34 points per game in 2016, i.e. very similar to 2015.

You could also look at our average wins to loss point ratios.  From 2011 - 2015 in general we have scored twice as many points in our wins as in our losses.  So, does that mean we'll be putting up 40 points regularly in our wins in 2016?!  Perhaps!

[*obviously 2014 shows that sometimes the season opener total IS close to the season scoring average.  But given Cam's injuries and our Oline woes that season... I'm not expecting a repeat.]

 

BUT..... this analysis cuts both ways, because while there's much reason to think we'll score a lot more than 20 points per game, the fact that we gave up 21 points to Denver is definitely a bit abnormal in our recent week 1 history:

Here's what the POINTS ALLOWED situation looks like:

 

In our Week 1 games for the past 6 seasons, we've allowed an average of 15.8 points.  The 21 points we've allowed to Denver is much higher than we normally allow - very close to our season average points allowed for 2011 - 2015 of 21.46 points.

What's troubling, is that just as our offense typically improves over the course of the season, other team's offenses do too.  Typically, the points we've allowed in week 1 has been lower than our season average for points allowed - about 74% of the average.

So, this could suggest a points allowed season average of 28 points.  YIKES! 

 

But as long as our offense scores 30 - 34 we'll win  Smile...!

I'm not really too worried.   I'm assuming our run defense problems and leaky defense last Thursday can be fixed.   But it will be something to keep an eye on.

[TheRumGone]

run defense is the most concerning but again it was week one and we have the talent in place to get that fixed. We lock down denvers game and force that qb to long downs and he makes more mistakes, like most qbs. Dude already threw 2 picks. They kept us on our toes because they could run the ball well. Making teams one dimensional is essential. Also bradberry has an opportunity to improve and it wasn't like he was roasted.

step 1 stop the run. Everything else will fall into place

[Snake]

Week one is not really all that telling. If your not winning by week three though it's not a good omen. 

[beastson]

Anything can happen on any given sunday

One thing I know for sure, none of these teams have the defense Broncos has

Our defense will settle in, but secondary I'm predicting will struggle until about week 8-9. I'm not happy we drafted a corner in the 3rd and 5th rounds and they're not even playing. That's a problem and that's not good on Gettlemen

[PrimeTyme]

I was thinking the same thing. after watching other teams this past Sunday the Panthers look to be in great shape.

[Nick_81]

17 minutes ago, beastson said:

I'm not happy we drafted a corner in the 3rd and 5th rounds and they're not even playing.

3rd and 5th rounders aren't expected to be starters.  Some do, and we've had some success in the past, but that's not the norm.

[beastson]

Just now, Nick_81 said:

3rd and 5th rounders aren't expected to be starters.  Some do, and we've had some success in the past, but that's not the norm.

I get that, but they're not even playing. No contribution at all. At-least a body to be physical. 

[Nick_81]

Just now, beastson said:

I get that, but they're not even playing. No contribution at all. At-least a body to be physical. 

Worley didn't play, but I believe I heard Rivera say he was disappointed that he wasn't rotated in the game.  I think you'll start seeing him on the field some now that he said that.

[RoaringRiot]

 

[CPcavedweller]

5 hours ago, CRA said:

How are we going to stop the NFCS pass attacks?

All the NFC South teams played in Domes this weekend. Everyone knows Brees morphs in to Breesus and Ryan generally plays well at home. The Falcon's pass defense including the rush is lacking which led to Winston having plenty of time. It's all about match-ups. The Broncos and the Seahawks defense's are far and away the best in the league after Week 1. 

It's good that we got one of those out of the way already. 

[CatMan72]

I was concerned about the Bucs offensive stat line, but the Falcons still have no pass rush - not sure why they decided to put Beasley's hand in the dirt? 

[TheSpecialJuan]

I told you not to panic. Now if we lose against the 49ers, then panic.

[Jmac]

I feel better now. Everyone sucks

[CatMan72]

8 hours ago, Donald LaFell said:

Eagles looked good against the Browns right? Gotta give them the benefit of a doubt. 

Meh, Browns gonna Brown.