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Explaining the Panthers playoff scenarios

hepcat

By hepcat,
in Carolina Panthers

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hepcat Grand Master

hepcat

Posted
Posted

There's another thread about this but I figured I'd make one with my post at the top. Who cares.

So I've been playing around with the ESPN Playoff Machine. http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

The Vikings play at home against the reeling Bengals, in Green Bay possibly against Aaron Rodgers, and at home against the Bears. There's likely two more wins on the schedule for them, and they'll likely win out to end up 13-3. They will likely end up the #1 seed in my opinion.

The Eagles finish with a road game against the Giants, at home against the Raiders, and home against the Cowboys with Zeke back. With Foles at QB, who knows how the Eagles will do. I could see them dropping one or two to finish the year and ending up the #2 seed, but they still have a strong shot at the #1 seed.

As far as the Panthers go, unless the Saints lose a game, the Panthers can only get a wildcard spot.

The Saints schedule is at home against the Jets, home against the Falcons, then close off the year with a road game in Tampa. With that schedule, unless Atlanta can pull the road upset, the Saints are going to coast to the division title. Really sucks the Panthers couldn't beat them once because their end of year schedule is cake. Saints likely finish 12-4 and a solid #3 or 4 seed.

After that, there's a lot of scenarios. The Panthers can realistically lose one more game and have a solid chance at making the playoffs. Since Atlanta and New Orleans play one more time, that guarantees one of them a loss which helps the Panthers playoff chances. I see a lot of scenarios with the Panthers losing to Atlanta in the final week and still making the playoffs.

The Rams @ Seahawks game this coming Sunday is a huge game. It's very likely whichever team wins that game is going to win their division. After this game, the Rams end the year with a road game against the Titans, and a home game against the 49ers. Seahawks have a road game with Dallas (with Zeke coming back from suspension) and a home game against the Cardinals. This is important because it's likely whichever team wins the NFC West could be the Panthers playoff opponent.

One team, likely either the Rams, Falcons, Panthers, or Seahawks, is going to miss the playoffs. Based on the remaining schedules, my guess is it's either the Falcons or Seahawks. The Seahawks have the toughest remaining schedule against the Rams and going to Dallas for Zeke's first game back. There is one scenario where the Panthers win their next two games, and lose to the Falcons in the final game, and miss the playoffs at 11-5. It would require the Falcons winning out, and the Rams beating the Seahawks this weekend. 

It's going to be an interesting finish this year. Pretty much the Panthers just need to win out to be guaranteed to be in, but it's likely even if they drop a game they'll still make the wildcard. 

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Davidson Deac II Grand Master

Davidson Deac II

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Nice write up, although I have to admit I usually only start paying attention to those scenarios the last two games of the season, and then only if we need help to make it.  I do think that if we win 2 out of the next 3, we would be in regardless of what other teams do.  It would be nice though if we won out, and enough teams lost to get us a 1 or a 2 seed. 

 

It will be interesting to see how the Saints do against Atlanta if Kamara is out. 

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t96 Grand Master

t96

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19 minutes ago, Davidson Deac II said:

Nice write up, although I have to admit I usually only start paying attention to those scenarios the last two games of the season, and then only if we need help to make it.  I do think that if we win 2 out of the next 3, we would be in regardless of what other teams do.  It would be nice though if we won out, and enough teams lost to get us a 1 or a 2 seed. 

 

It will be interesting to see how the Saints do against Atlanta if Kamara is out. 

He won’t be out 17 days later...

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Pantha-kun Mentor

Pantha-kun

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With the way the Panthers are this year, we should be most worried about the Bucs game. Last trap game of the season, Bucs will pretty much have nothing to lose and might play us like its their personal super bowl. 

And then ATL will probably play us even harder if they win out. B/C in that senario , if they beat us at the end they win the division.

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Cyberjag Newbie

Cyberjag

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If the season ended today, the NFC seeding would be:

  1. Eagles (at New York Giants, Raiders, Cowboys)
  2. Vikings (Bengals, at Green Bay, Bears)
  3. Rams (at Seahawks, at Titans, 49ers)
  4. Saints (New York Jets, Atlanta, at Tampa Bay)
  5. Panthers (Green Bay, Tampa Bay, at Atlanta)
  6. Falcons (Tampa Bay, at New Orleans, Carolina)

I'm assuming the following:

  • Eagles win out, mainly because of who they play.
  • Vikings drop the game at Green Bay, because Aaron Rodgers
  • Rams drop both road games and take care of business at home vs. the 49ers.  I don't believe in them much, to be honest.
  • Saints win out.
  • Falcons beat Tampa Bay, and lose to New Orleans.  Just seems reasonable.

If that happens, then you have the following.  The first four seeds are the Eagles, Vikings, Saints, and NFC West winner, in that order.

  • Panthers beat Green Bay and Tampa Bay--a loss to the Falcons gives us the fifth seed at 11-5, while a win gives us the fifth seed at 12-4 and knocks the Falcons out of the playoffs.  Fifth seed plays the NFC West winner.
  • Panthers go 1-1 over their next two games--a loss to the Falcons has us sitting at home despite a 10-6 record.  A win knocks the Falcons out of the playoffs and gives us the fifth seed at 11-5.  Once again, we play the wildcard game at the NFC West winner.

Bottom line is, if we beat Green Bay we're in no matter what.  I'm not sure yet if there's a scenario where we will face New Orleans in week one, but that probably depends on the Rams.  I don't think we can get the sixth seed, we're either 5th or out.  So assuming New Orleans secures the third seed, we will play out west if we do.

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t96 Grand Master

t96

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18 minutes ago, Davidson Deac II said:

Its a concussion.  He could return next week, or miss a month.  As we have seen numerous times, no one really knows. 

Large large majority of first time concussions don't make a player miss more than a week, many of them don't even miss a game, and Kamara got his on a Thursday not a Sunday which makes it even more likely he doesn't miss any time at all, let alone 2 games.

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