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Top OG declares for draft


mc52beast

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28 minutes ago, Growl said:

My premise is fine, your understanding is wrong.

The Colts will either choose to give their OG a near on 90 million dollar contract or they will then acquire a player who earns them just as many wins and realize they wasted a 1st round pick on a player who is going elsewhere.

So, in other words, guards aren't worth a first round pick no matter how good they are? Is that what you're suggesting?

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47 minutes ago, Growl said:

In 4 seasons the Colts will have to either give their Guard a contract close to 90 million dollars when they could be getting virtually identical production from a 5th round pick at a fraction o the cost or watch him go to Jacksonville.

 

You don't draft guys in the first round for one contract. The Colts are stupid.

Yes, you do.

If you think that the particular player can be top 5 at his position for 5 years, you should absolutely draft him in any round, especially in the 1st.

You now control a top of the line player for 5 years for a really good deal.

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22 minutes ago, top dawg said:

So, in other words, guards aren't worth a first round pick no matter how good they are? Is that what you're suggesting?

Ill bite

No they arent

Once in a half decade guys are and they go at the top for a reason.

Unless you are set at majority of your spots on the team and the Hole there is so mich grewter than anywhere else.

Again listening to that scout in that interview.  

The dropoff in a 1st round OG and a 3rd isnt that big

Meanwhile DL and edge rushers the dropoff is significant.  Getting a 1st DL and 3rd OG, you have a good probability of getting 2 solid starters

A 1st round OG and 3rd round DL, more than likely get a good OG ......BUT have a avg DL who isnt starter material atleast for a year or 2.  Those top 5 at their position guys dont fall outside of the top 10 and heck can still find solid ones waay later, look at Norwell.

There is also a reason, your top edge rushers are for the most part 1st round guys 

While top OGs are drafted all over

Lets look at this years probowl

OGs

Quenton Nelson- 6th overall, said to be the best OG prospect to come out on 8 years

David Decastro-24th overall

Marshal Yanda- 3rd rounder

Zack Martin- 16th overall

Brandon Brooks- 3rd Rounder

Trai Turner- 3rd rounder

 

50% of them were 3rd round guys

 

Edge rushers

Melvin Ingram- 18th overall

Myles Garrett- #1 pick

JJ Watt- 11th overall

Clowney- #1 overall

Dee Ford- 23rd overall

Von Miller- 2nd overall

Cameron Jordan- 24th overall

Demarcus Lawerence- 2nd rounder

Danielle Hunter- 3rd rounder

Ryan Kerrigan- 16th overall

Khalil Mack- 5th overall

Anthony Barr- 9th overall

 

 

16% were non 1st rounder

 

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1 minute ago, ncfan said:

Ill bite

No they arent

Once in a half decade guys are and they go at the top for a reason.

Unless you are set at majority of your spots on the team and the Hole there is so mich grewter than anywhere else.

Again listening to that scout in that interview.  

The dropoff in a 1st round OG and a 3rd isnt that big

Meanwhile DL and edge rushers the dropoff is significant.  Getting a 1st DL and 3rd OG, you have a good probability of getting 2 solid starters

A 1st round OG and 3rd round DL, more than likely get a good OG ......BUT have a avg DL who isnt starter material atleast for a year or 2.  Those top 5 at their position guys dont fall outside of the top 10 and heck can still find solid ones waay later, look at Norwell.

There is also a reason, your top edge rushers are for the most part 1st round guys 

While top OGs are drafted all over

Lets look at this years probowl

OGs

Quenton Nelson- 6th overall, said to be the best OG prospect to come out on 8 years

David Decastro-24th overall

Marshal Yanda- 3rd rounder

Zack Martin- 16th overall

Brandon Brooks- 3rd Rounder

Trai Turner- 3rd rounder

 

50% of them were 3rd round guys

 

Edge rushers

Melvin Ingram- 18th overall

Myles Garrett- #1 pick

JJ Watt- 11th overall

Clowney- #1 overall

Dee Ford- 23rd overall

Von Miller- 2nd overall

Cameron Jordan- 24th overall

Demarcus Lawerence- 2nd rounder

Danielle Hunter- 3rd rounder

Ryan Kerrigan- 16th overall

Khalil Mack- 5th overall

Anthony Barr- 9th overall

 

 

16% were non 1st rounder

 

No need for "biting" or all the words (especially since it's almost a repost of what was presented earlier), I just wanted a "yes" or "no" answer. 

I look at the draft as an individual, yearly exercise and tool, independent to itself on some levels, though interrelated to others in regards to team building and chemistry. And, of course, there is always the question of "BPA, or what I'll coin "BFP" (best for position)?

You present a compelling argument this year, but I still feel compelled to scrutinize each player on their own, regardless whether they're D-Line or O-line (respective of specific position) to determine if they are a transcendent talent. Moreover, as team building is not a static proposition, I also think that free agency plays a big part (though maybe somewhat indirectly) in the draft process.

 

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1 hour ago, top dawg said:

So, in other words, guards aren't worth a first round pick no matter how good they are? Is that what you're suggesting?

There is no discrepancy between the number of wins a "hall of fame " OG gets you and the number a fully competent one does.

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1 hour ago, thefuzz said:

Yes, you do.

If you think that the particular player can be top 5 at his position for 5 years, you should absolutely draft him in any round, especially in the 1st.

You now control a top of the line player for 5 years for a really good deal.

lol no you don't, which is why no team does it. 

Why don't you cite some examples of teams who comfortably draft players each year with no intent to resign them.

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Just now, Growl said:

lol no you don't, which is why no team does it. 

Why don't you cite some examples of teams who comfortably draft players each year with no intent to resign them.

You don't draft a player expecting to get 9 years out of them, you hope to get 5.

Of course every team wants all of their draft picks to sign 2nd deals, but that's just not the way it is in the NFL.

It's why I'm 100% OK with running the legs out from under CMC.  You take him high, you play him.

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18 minutes ago, thefuzz said:

You don't draft a player expecting to get 9 years out of them, you hope to get 5.

Of course every team wants all of their draft picks to sign 2nd deals, but that's just not the way it is in the NFL.

It's why I'm 100% OK with running the legs out from under CMC.  You take him high, you play him.

Again, name some of these teams.

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17 minutes ago, Growl said:

Again, name some of these teams.

Outside of QB, I have never heard a team claim that they just got their safety for the next 10 years on draft night.  Does that sound normal to you?

You are playing the averages here.  Some 1st rounders will sign a 2nd contract with the team that drafted them.  A few 2nd rounders may, less 3rd rounders, etc...

Again, outside of QB, I can't imagine any NFL GM is going to expect to get 10 years out of a draft pick.

Let's use our last handful of picks as an example.  How many players drafted between 2008 and 2014 have signed a 2nd contract with us?

2008:  1

2009:  Zero.  (technically signed Capt. to his 3rd contract, but we didn't give him a 2nd)

2010:  Zero.

2011:  1.

2012:  1.

2013:  1

2014:  1

 

Since 2008, we have averaged less than 1 player sign a second contract with us.  That's how this thing works.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Moo Daeng said:

They won a single playoff game since Martin was drafted in 2014 and that was his rookie season.. 

That’s not relevant. He’s been arguably the best OL in the league his entire career so far. Team success has no correlation with any one player

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