DJ Moore / Samuel from Slot/Perimeter

[LinvilleGorge]

Despite how we usually play him, Bradbury is one of the better press CBs in the NFL. Perfect guy for Moore to work against to help him out. He has all the physical tools to beat a jam, he just needs the skills. 

[mc52beast]

Don’t really see Samuel as a slot guy, his best attributes make him a no-brainer for the outside.

Moore on the other hand is built for the slot... he’s tough, he loves contact. If he can improve in getting off press coverage he will be a threat at both spots

[LinvilleGorge]

It's funny how a stat like this brings out the analytical ignorance of the average fan. As if this is some type of magical solution to offensive dominance. Stats in and of themselves mean very little without understanding the bigger picture. Only 25% of Moore's snaps came in the slot. It's very possible that many of those snaps were to target specific favorable matchups or were plays drawn up specifically to get the ball to him in space on high percentage passes. For Samuel, only 22% of his snaps came in the slot and he only played 56% of our offensives snaps. So now we're talking about a sample size of about 12% of our overall offensive snaps. That's a pretty limited sample size. It's also quite possible that we were largely using him primarily as a decoy in the slot. 

My point is that you can generally find situational statistics to tell any story that you want to tell. The value of analysis is primarily internal where they have the entire picture.

I agree that last year, Moore was best equipped to operate out of the slot as a rookie and Samuel was more advanced on the outside, but we'll have to see how Moore has developed this offseason and these cherry picked stats based on small sample sizes and lacking of other information don't necessarily tell nearly as complete of a story as some would like to think.

[KB_fan]

17 hours ago, panthers55 said:

Problem with QB ratings comparing players  is context. Unless you know how many times they were targeted in each position  you can't really decide how valid the numbers are. Otherwise a very small number of targets can skew the numbers at one position or another. A large number or at least a similar number give credibility to what looks like marked differences. In any case you see another use for analytics. Then if you further break it down against each team and player, you see how game planning begins looking at results and tendencies.

Good point.

Actually, the person who posted the tweet did have target data too. I'll dig that up.

[KB_fan]

17 hours ago, panthers55 said:

Problem with QB ratings comparing players  is context. Unless you know how many times they were targeted in each position  you can't really decide how valid the numbers are. Otherwise a very small number of targets can skew the numbers at one position or another. A large number or at least a similar number give credibility to what looks like marked differences. In any case you see another use for analytics. Then if you further break it down against each team and player, you see how game planning begins looking at results and tendencies.

Good point.

Actually, the person who posted the tweet did have target data too. I'll dig that up.

[KB_fan]

 

[panthers55]

3 hours ago, KB_fan said:

 

Thanks for the numbers. Looking at that comparison, I would say that the results are more valid for DJ given he was targeted 30 times in the slot and 50 on the outside.  Meanwhile Samuel has a good number of targets outside at 48 but he was only targeted 16 times in the slot. 

It is interesting that the QB rating between the two based on throws to the outside, resulted in a big difference between Samuel at 125 to DJ at 70 yet the on target completion percentages  for Samuel was 78% and DJ was 74%. That is different from the unadjusted completion rate which was 65% for Samuel and 56% for DJ.

Curtis had twice as many drops at DJ and DJ had more yards per reception and twice as many yards after the catch on 3 fewer catches.  What I get from that is this was more about Cam struggling to find Moore on the outside than it was Moore not doing a good job. If as someone said earlier, DJ didn't get separation on the outside then Cam could have been throwing into tighter windows which could impact his accuracy especially with a noodle arm.  Throwing outside means the ball travels much further on a five yard pass to the edges than it does in the middle of the field.  So once again with less accuracy and less velocity, which gives DBs more time to adjust to the ball, it could have been an issue with Cam and his arm as well as with DJ. 

How do you see it?

[lightsout]

Numbers are important in this kind of stuff, but the reality is what has been stated here partially. DJ has to learn to beat press with consistency and run routes on the outside to gain separation deep. Once he develops that, he's literally the kind of receiver Smitty was for us. You can put him anywhere on the field and he will produce. 

Samuel is basically the same player but not nearly as physical. And that's fine, he doesn't have to be. I much rather have DJ running those crossing routes through the middle because he'll ping pong around and get an extra 15 yards. Samuel is the kind of cat you just have to give him the ball when he's behind the defense or when he breaks off and comes back. He'll make things happen after.

I don't think Samuel CAN'T play the slot, but we love having our speed wide and he's more of a speed guy that is good at getting off outside where DJ has more shake on the inside stuff. That combination, when both are out there, is literally drop your safety to meet DJ and get beat by Samuel, or keep the safety high to double up Samuel and pray your linebacker can make a play on DJ. That doesn't even include accounting for TEs and CMC. Personnel wise, we're a freaking nightmare for teams. Now it's just executing the plays and staying healthy.

[shaqattaq]

14 hours ago, panthers55 said:

How do you see it?

I see that on the outside, they had basically the same number of targets and Samuel had 5 TD's to Moore's 1. That tells me that Samuel's spot is outside. I still believe that because of his hands and ability to get away from tackles, Moore can line up anywhere and make defenses pay. Remember, he was a rookie with an off season health scare who was not used heavily until we were several weeks into the season. I think that this season he goes the fug off!

[panthers55]

13 hours ago, shaqattaq said:

I see that on the outside, they had basically the same number of targets and Samuel had 5 TD's to Moore's 1. That tells me that Samuel's spot is outside. I still believe that because of his hands and ability to get away from tackles, Moore can line up anywhere and make defenses pay. Remember, he was a rookie with an off season health scare who was not used heavily until we were several weeks into the season. I think that this season he goes the fug off!

Curtis had the heart issue and missed several games. What off-season health scare did DJ have?

[45catfan]

There's so many variables to read too much into it.  As I found out the hard way in college, sample size of the study is everything.  One season isn't adequate considering Cam's accuracy issues especially later in the year, Curtis missing games early and still learning to be a full time WR, DJ being a rookie, leaning very heavily on CMC, defense unable to get off the field, Norv still figuring out how to use all these guys to their strengths, etc...  Last season was a developmental year for this passing game.  This season will be the true test.  Both guys are good WRs.   If anything Curtis on the outside is a better fit for him because of his straight line speed.  That doesn't mean he's any less of a WR in the slot or DJ sucks at a 9 route.

[thefuzz]

1 hour ago, 45catfan said:

There's so many variables to read too much into it.  As I found out the hard way in college, sample size of the study is everything.  One season isn't adequate considering Cam's accuracy issues especially later in the year, Curtis missing games early and still learning to be a full time WR, DJ being a rookie, leaning very heavily on CMC, defense unable to get off the field, Norv still figuring out how to use all these guys to their strengths, etc...  Last season was a developmental year for this passing game.  This season will be the true test.  Both guys are good WRs.   If anything Curtis on the outside is a better fit for him because of his straight line speed.  That doesn't mean he's any less of a WR in the slot or DJ sucks at a 9 route.

Curtis can fly, but straight line isn't what he's best at.  He can legit run routes, and beat press man.  We haven't had that at the WR position since Steve left.

[45catfan]

40 minutes ago, thefuzz said:

Curtis can fly, but straight line isn't what he's best at.  He can legit run routes, and beat press man.  We haven't had that at the WR position since Steve left.

His first 1-1/2 years I'd say Curtis relied heavily on beating defenders with speed instead of technique.  He started to turn the corner mid-season last year in becoming a complete WR.  I expect big things out of Curtis.  If he stays healthy all season, I am predicting that Samuel will be our leading WR in yards.