Marty Hurney - The Drafting Record

[CarolinaNCSU]

Yes, another Hurney thread.  But wanted a more all-encompassing look based on the now famous Tepper quote below...

Quote

"Marty Hurney is one of the best recognizers of college talent in the nation. Period," Tepper said, per NFL.com. "I don't want to lose that. And he's also not a bad manager."

Not meant to be a Hurney/Gettleman pissing match. Just a complete look at Hurney's draft record and where he's gone right (and wrong). Linking in the site at the bottom with the complete pick history, not trying to post that. 

Hurney 1.0

• 2002 - Pretty solid IMO.  Peppers, DeShaun, Will Witherspoon, Dante Wesley being the top 4 picks is strong. But...kind of hard to mess up drafting Peppers so how much of this is truly great evaluation? 
• 2003 - Yeesh. Jordan Gross. That's...it.  Ricky Manning had moments, especially for a late 3rd rounder, but again Hurney didn't mess up a Top 10 pick so congrats?
• 2004 - Chris Gamble at 28 is a great pick and Hurney should get some credit. Wharton as a late 3rd was also very solid.  The Keary Colbert pick still stings, but in a draft with 6 picks, he hit 2 pretty great guys especially considering draft postion. 
• 2005 - Thomas Davis, as a converted player, great pick. Only problem is...the other 9 picks. Evan Mathis and Geoff Hangartner were here...but Mathis wouldn't find (All-Pro & Pro-Bowl success) until he left Carolina. Hangartner was solid, but looking back this was bad. 
• 2006 - DeAngelo, Richard Marshall, James Anderson are solid for the Top 3. Even Jeff King was a decent #2/3 TE, but still just a good draft. 
• 2007 - I wanted Olsen, Marty trades back and gets...Beason. Great pick, as were Kalil and CJ value wise.  Dwayne Jarrett, though. 
• 2008 - Why not another RB? I love JStew, Double Trouble was great, but this is where the RB contracts would kill us. Trading a pick to come back for Otah still hurts. Godfrey, Connor, Barnidge, Schwartz, and even Mackenzy Bernadeau would be solid...but bad contracts and some of these guys not reaching their potential, until they left us, hurts again.
  • Common theme throughout this - - Hurney actually drafted A LOT of OL. He either just gave up on them too quickly, or they were more late round/depth picks. 
• 2009 - God. Everette Brown.  The best thing was 7th round pick Captain.  This draft alone should've gotten him fired. Especially with Hurney trading away another future 1st to go get Everette Brown in the 2nd round. 
• 2010 - Clausen! Best pick ever...because it got us Cam the next year.  Sadly, we wouldn't have pick #33 (our 2nd rounder) because Hurney wanted Armanti Edwards in the 3rd round.  Hardy, though. Who despite being the Top Prospect in 2010's Sports Illustrated, dropped to the 6th round.  That's not an eye for talent, that's a roll of the dice. 
• 2011 - Cameron Jerrell Newton.  And then 7 picks of pure poo. 
• 2012 - Luke. A lot here hated the Luke pick, but honestly...should Hurney even get credit for picking the safest prospect in the damn draft? Josh as a 5th rounder was great, the rest is nothing including our old friend Amini in the 2nd round because his tape beating up Division 11 tiny people was too good to pass on. 
  • From 2009 to 2012 - 32 total picks - - Hurney found honestly 6-7 people who even belonged on a football field including Cam/Luke.

Andddd break.  Hurney 1.0.  He's always been able to hit 1st rounders (Otah is the only miss), but my God any GM worth their poo should be able to hit 1st rounders with a high percentage.  Especially when half of Hurney's 1st rounders were in the Top 10. Hurney's issue, was the trading away of future 1st or 2nd rounders which gave him little wiggle room to miss. Which he did, a lot. As most GMs do...but couple that with the fact that more than a few of his drafted guys only found success AFTER LEAVING...not a good look. 

Hurney 2.0

• 2018 - DJ Moore is a stud, Donte showed promise but may behave his way out of the league, and Haynes is a depth guy at best. The great Ian Thomas experiment is the new Swole Bones to me and until he proves he can be healthy or get on the field, don't think he's part of any plan going forward. 
  • So...gun to head players still on this team in 2 years?  1 - DJ Moore. A 1st rounder.
• 2019 - Brian Burns will be great if healthy, but again what else?  Hurney blew his load drafting Little (he wanted him in the 1st), but injuries have already caused pessimism here. Daley in the 6th is value, but again, depth at this point. Grier? Ha. Christian Miller was injured or on a milk carton. Scarlett didn't play. Godwin was cut. 
  • So again...who's on this team in 2 years? Burns for sure, and we'll go with both tackles though neither have proven too much after only a year. 

 

From Rounds 2-7 - Around 92 draft picks during Hurney's reign.  About 25% even belong on a football field or saw decent playing time. Some were Panthers greats, some were merely JAGs.  Not that we didn't already know this, but Hurney's 1st round record has carried him...because when you look at everything else, sweet baby Jesus.  Couple in some of the contracts/team management, some of that 25% above not even finding success for THIS TEAM and exactly what in the hell is David Tepper talking about when it comes to Marty Hurney being "one of the best recognizers of college talent in the nation"?

 

Hurney's Drafts

[Snake]

[bobowilson]

This will be another 10 page thread where ill informed fans talk endlessly about Hurney's mid round 'busts', and expose that they literally don't follow any of the other 31 teams in the NFL (completely unaware of the statistical success rate of non 1st round picks league wide).

If they are confronted with the raw data about how your average 2nd, 3rd, 4-7th round pick fares in the NFL, a combination of conservatism bias, clustering illusion, availability heuristics, and other mental biases will prevent them from any sort of realistic assessment of his record.

Unfortunately, your average sports fan is terrible at evaluating the merits of an executive.  Thankfully, David Tepper spent his entire life having to make these type of judgments.

But go on lads, talk about Armanti Edwards and Jimmy Clausen for another 8 pages and ignore the fact that 31 other teams bust on the vast vast majority of their mid round picks.

 

[Matt62881]

3 minutes ago, CarolinaNCSU said:

Yes, another Hurney thread.  But wanted a more all-encompassing look based on the now famous Tepper quote below...

Not meant to be a Hurney/Gettleman pissing match. Just a complete look at Hurney's draft record and where he's gone right (and wrong). Linking in the site at the bottom with the complete pick history, not trying to post that. 

Hurney 1.0

• 2002 - Pretty solid IMO.  Peppers, DeShaun, Will Witherspoon, Dante Wesley being the top 4 picks is strong. But...kind of hard to mess up drafting Peppers so how much of this is truly great evaluation? 
• 2003 - Yeesh. Jordan Gross. That's...it.  Ricky Manning had moments, especially for a late 3rd rounder, but again Hurney didn't mess up a Top 10 pick so congrats?
• 2004 - Chris Gamble at 28 is a great pick and Hurney should get some credit. Wharton as a late 3rd was also very solid.  The Keary Colbert pick still stings, but in a draft with 6 picks, he hit 2 pretty great guys especially considering draft postion. 
• 2005 - Thomas Davis, as a converted player, great pick. Only problem is...the other 9 picks. Evan Mathis and Geoff Hangartner were here...but Mathis wouldn't find (All-Pro & Pro-Bowl success) until he left Carolina. Hangartner was solid, but looking back this was bad. 
• 2006 - DeAngelo, Richard Marshall, James Anderson are solid for the Top 3. Even Jeff King was a decent #2/3 TE, but still just a good draft. 
• 2007 - I wanted Olsen, Marty trades back and gets...Beason. Great pick, as were Kalil and CJ value wise.  Dwayne Jarrett, though. 
• 2008 - Why not another RB? I love JStew, Double Trouble was great, but this is where the RB contracts would kill us. Trading a pick to come back for Otah still hurts. Godfrey, Connor, Barnidge, Schwartz, and even Mackenzy Bernadeau would be solid...but bad contracts and some of these guys not reaching their potential, until they left us, hurts again.
  • Common theme throughout this - - Hurney actually drafted A LOT of OL. He either just gave up on them too quickly, or they were more late round/depth picks. 
• 2009 - God. Everette Brown.  The best thing was 7th round pick Captain.  This draft alone should've gotten him fired. Especially with Hurney trading away another future 1st to go get Everette Brown in the 2nd round. 
• 2010 - Clausen! Best pick ever...because it got us Cam the next year.  Sadly, we wouldn't have pick #33 (our 2nd rounder) because Hurney wanted Armanti Edwards in the 3rd round.  Hardy, though. Who despite being the Top Prospect in 2010's Sports Illustrated, dropped to the 6th round.  That's not an eye for talent, that's a roll of the dice. 
• 2011 - Cameron Jerrell Newton.  And then 7 picks of pure poo. 
• 2012 - Luke. A lot here hated the Luke pick, but honestly...should Hurney even get credit for picking the safest prospect in the damn draft? Josh as a 5th rounder was great, the rest is nothing including our old friend Amini in the 2nd round because his tape beating up Division 11 tiny people was too good to pass on. 
  • From 2009 to 2012 - 32 total picks - - Hurney found honestly 6-7 people who even belonged on a football field including Cam/Luke.

Andddd break.  Hurney 1.0.  He's always been able to hit 1st rounders (Otah is the only miss), but my God any GM worth their poo should be able to hit 1st rounders with a high percentage.  Especially when half of Hurney's 1st rounders were in the Top 10. Hurney's issue, was the trading away of future 1st or 2nd rounders which gave him little wiggle room to miss. Which he did, a lot. As most GMs do...but couple that with the fact that more than a few of his drafted guys only found success AFTER LEAVING...not a good look. 

Hurney 2.0

• 2018 - DJ Moore is a stud, Donte showed promise but may behave his way out of the league, and Haynes is a depth guy at best. The great Ian Thomas experiment is the new Swole Bones to me and until he proves he can be healthy or get on the field, don't think he's part of any plan going forward. 
  • So...gun to head players still on this team in 2 years?  1 - DJ Moore. A 1st rounder.
• 2019 - Brian Burns will be great if healthy, but again what else?  Hurney blew his load drafting Little (he wanted him in the 1st), but injuries have already caused pessimism here. Daley in the 6th is value, but again, depth at this point. Grier? Ha. Christian Miller was injured or on a milk carton. Scarlett didn't play. Godwin was cut. 
  • So again...who's on this team in 2 years? Burns for sure, and we'll go with both tackles though neither have proven too much after only a year. 

 

From Rounds 2-7 - Around 92 draft picks during Hurney's reign.  About 25% even belong on a football field or saw decent playing time. Some were Panthers greats, some were merely JAGs.  Not that we didn't already know this, but Hurney's 1st round record has carried him...because when you look at everything else, sweet baby Jesus.  Couple in some of the contracts/team management, some of that 25% above not even finding success for THIS TEAM and exactly what in the hell is David Tepper talking about when it comes to Marty Hurney being "one of the best recognizers of college talent in the nation"?

 

Hurney's Drafts

Maybe he feels if he can get a guy to handle all GM duties besides scouting and drafting of players he can replicate his success in the 1st round? No clue bro just hope it works out, I do think hes been a little better the 2nd time around but he was pretty atrocious the first time around. His bad picks were really bad and his first picks were in general really good. Ian Thomas imo is what we all wanted swole bones to be, swole never had a game as good as quite a few of Ian's games and alot of those came with KA or an injured Cam. His hands aren't terrible but it couldn't hurt to buy a jugs machine and improve.

[bobowilson]

5 minutes ago, stbugs said:

 do you really get much credit for picking Cam when you put the team in the toilet and have no QB? 

Peter King published an informal survey of executives two weeks before the draft that showed over 70% would not risk taking Cam Newton with the 1st pick

SI called it the 'toughest calls in sports';  after the failure of Jamarcus Russell, most pundits were saying Gabbert was a better prospect, and if Hurney had misjudged Cam Newton, he would have been roasted for all of eternity and banished from the NFL.  Almost no one on this very forum wanted Cam.  Drafting Cam with the 1st pick was incredibly gutsy, in the climate of 2011 when everyone has preconceived notions that black qbs were doomed to fail (especially in Charlotte of all places)

But we can keep revising history to fit whatever narrative counts.   Hurney could draft 10 consecutive Hall of Famers and people would still find a way to dismiss it.

 

[CarolinaNCSU]

2 minutes ago, bobowilson said:

But go on lads, talk about Armanti Edwards and Jimmy Clausen for another 8 pages and ignore the fact that 31 other teams bust on the vast vast majority of their mid round picks.

 

They without question do.  Like I said, even my number of Hurney at say a 25% success rate isn't necessarily terrible, but I imagine a "good" GM to be closer to say 33-35% and on average hits 2-3 picks per draft instead of 1-2. 

The bigger issue then comes from, Hurney's handling of contracts, kicking the can down the road, bad signings, giving up on guys who then go on to thrive, etc. Even if Hurney is a decent to good talent evaluator, doesn't mean he should come anywhere close to the title of GM. 

[bobowilson]

20 minutes ago, CarolinaNCSU said:

About 25% even belong on a football field or saw decent playing time. Some were Panthers greats, some were merely JAGs.

Have you ever looked at the actual data for other teams, and analyzed the odds of finding NFL talent in the draft across different rounds?   Of course not

I don't even know why I bother.

Hurney drafts for high upside, which carries a lot of risk.  The same instinct that led him to draft Cam newton (or even Greg Hardy or Josh Norman in the late rounds) led him to draft Armanti Edwards.

You can draft safe choices all day long, it's not going to lead you to the Super Bowl.

I'll go with high upside all day long even if it means missing some mid round picks.

[CLG]

22 minutes ago, bobowilson said:

This will be another 10 page thread where ill informed fans talk endlessly about Hurney's mid round 'busts', and expose that they literally don't follow any of the other 31 teams in the NFL (completely unaware of the statistical success rate of non 1st round picks league wide).

If they are confronted with the raw data about how your average 2nd, 3rd, 4-7th round pick fares in the NFL, a combination of conservatism bias, clustering illusion, availability heuristics, and other mental biases will prevent them from any sort of realistic assessment of his record.

Unfortunately, your average sports fan is terrible at evaluating the merits of an executive.  Thankfully, David Tepper spent his entire life having to make these type of judgments.

But go on lads, talk about Armanti Edwards and Jimmy Clausen for another 8 pages and ignore the fact that 31 other teams bust on the vast vast majority of their mid round picks.

 

They dont call it the "Not For Long (NFL)" League for nothing. 

[GoPanthers123]

What Tepper meant is Hurney is great evaluator but we need a second opinion in later rounds.  Actually 2019 draft apart from Grier looks promising, when they are on the field they look ok.

[Forty-Eight]

[Harbingers]

@bobowilson the official Carolina Panthers huddle tinderbox troll!

[Adb6368]

Need comparable analysis to make a conclusion...

i know we are better than the browns. 

[onmyown]

If you want an ‘all encompassing’ look at a GM I’d say the draft is roughly 25% of that. Free agency, extensions, existing and future contracts, cap management all need to be considered. I think this are the things Tepper is bringing in other people for, because Hurney is god awful at these things.

[Doyle]

Couldn’t you do this with any GM?   Now break down the other 31 GM’s.