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A Path to Trevor or Fields---without "Tanking"

MHS831

By MHS831,
in Carolina Panthers

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

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Hypothetical perspective---off season. (I usually only start threads in the offseason when people start repetitious, threads.)  I have been reading about tanking etc.  and thought I would develop a way to assure a high first pick while developing a winning attitude.  Our record is not the only way we can draft early.

Now that it seems logical and reasonable to assume a position that Cam will be dealt in March, what can we do to assure that we get one of the top 2 QBs in 2021?  Lose on purpose?  Hard to convince coaches and players to risk their jobs for a college player.  Not necessary.  Understand that there are many approaches and this perspective is only one:

You do not tank on the field this year as some have suggested; you simply make trades and accumulate draft picks.  Here is how I might do it:

  • Do not draft a QB this year if you do not like the QBs.  Use the picks on OL, DL, WR, CB.  I think the OL needs to be in place first anyway. 
  • Do not re-sign Bradberry.  He is not worth $16m. No zone CB with 8 career picks is.  If we get a third-round comp pick, it can be traded.
  • Sign a cut QB starter---for $8m for a season or two:  Derek Carr, Mariota, Tribuski, for example, could be available. Let's see how one might do in this system for a year.  Grier needs competition. Yes, they may suck now, but Tanneyhill showed how a different system can reinvigorate a career.  If they suck again here in 2020, we pick top 3 in 2021.  If they are decent, we have a younger QB to compete with the 2021 draft pick.
  • Trade Cam for a 2021 second rounder would be more strategic than a 3rd rounder this year. 
  • If we were to move back five-seven picks in the draft, for example, we could acquire another 2021 second rounder and still get a top OT or DL (Wirfs or Kinlaw, for example).  
  • Continue to create cap savings (Cam, Poe, etc.), we can trade a player with value for a 2021 pick. This will make some of you scream, but Trai Turner (yes, he is young--26 I think) has value and has been to pro bowls.  While the OL needs to be developed, Turner is overhyped and overpaid, imo.  Move him and sign a less-expensive free agent. 
  • With some of the created or saved cap room, fill gaps with 1-2 year contracts in 2020.  (LG, LB, S, TE, for example)
  • Extend your core:  Moton, CMC get new deals with part of the cap savings.

Summarizing:  You are accumulating draft capital and using cap room to fill the gaps.  If moving a player or letting a player walk leads to a future draft pick--not 2020, but 2021--then do it.

2020 Draft (example):

  • 1.  Wirfs LT.  (Greg Little / Daley to compete for RG since I traded Trai)
  • 2.  Blacklock, DT (3t, 5t)
  • 3.  Danzler, CB
  • 4.  Fotu, DT (1t)
  • 5.  Edwards, WR
  • 6. Hansen, C
  • 7.  Rodriquez, K

2021 Draft:

1.  Top 10 pick  (say we finish in the fifth spot like Miami this year since we seem to be following their blueprint)  Here are the assets to use to move up for Fields or Lawrence:

  • 2.  early second round pick, second round (Cam), second round (Trade back 2021 draft)
  • 3.  early third round pick, Turner trade pick, Bradberry Comp pick.

Assume that we ONLY bargain with the picks acquired in 2020 trades (Cam 2nd, draft 2nd, and Turner 3rd, and the comp pick). Let's say that we offer our first in addition to all of these picks.  We can move from the fifth to the second pick--if the first pick is available, we could throw in our 2021 third rounder--to get Trevor or Fields. 

Not perfect, but it is a plan.  The rest of the 2021 draft could be to solidify the remaining needs. (DE, SS--after releasing Reid, and OL again). We have a young roster, a manageable cap, and a star QB to build around.

 

 

 

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TheRed Newbie

TheRed

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The talk of tanking is enticing in the middle of February when your team is awful. But losing and losing very badly on a consistent basis is a good way to ensure your team culture will be in the toilet for the foreseeable future. How many years was it that Newton got poo for hating losing? We need sore losers on this damn team. Not cry babies wanting us to continue being the worst team in the league and watching the Saints and Falcons laugh at us. At this point I feel like this should have been the year for us to back our way into the first overall pick. We didn't, and that's what the hand we were dealt. Now we have to possibly consider if moving up to take our guy is an option this year. We have to at the very least consider it.

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stbugs Grand Master

stbugs

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31 minutes ago, TheRed said:

The talk of tanking is enticing in the middle of February when your team is awful. But losing and losing very badly on a consistent basis is a good way to ensure your team culture will be in the toilet for the foreseeable future. How many years was it that Newton got poo for hating losing? We need sore losers on this damn team. Not cry babies wanting us to continue being the worst team in the league and watching the Saints and Falcons laugh at us. At this point I feel like this should have been the year for us to back our way into the first overall pick. We didn't, and that's what the hand we were dealt. Now we have to possibly consider if moving up to take our guy is an option this year. We have to at the very least consider it.

Blah. We’ve tanked twice and both times got to the SB. One bad year to get a marquee QB won’t matter. We tanked to get Cam and it obviously didn’t create a culture of cry babies. Team culture is based on the coaches and winning, probably way overrated. Tyreke Hill is a scum bag and he just won a Super Bowl.

If we don’t go FA crazy and we trade Cam, we are right there in the race for the top pick. It’s pretty simple. If we get the top pick in next year’s draft, we should be good. God forbid we draft anything good past the first and we could be good quickly.

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TheRed Newbie

TheRed

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6 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Blah. We’ve tanked twice and both times got to the SB. One bad year to get a marquee QB won’t matter. We tanked to get Cam and it obviously didn’t create a culture of cry babies. Team culture is based on the coaches and winning, probably way overrated. Tyreke Hill is a scum bag and he just won a Super Bowl.

If we don’t go FA crazy and we trade Cam, we are right there in the race for the top pick. It’s pretty simple. If we get the top pick in next year’s draft, we should be good. God forbid we draft anything good past the first and we could be good quickly.

I have to disagree about team culture being "way overrated". What have the Panthers done since riding that wave in 2015?

We've been in a funk since the 2016 season opener. There have been a few glimpses of what was here and there, but nothing like that lightning in a bottle that we had in 2015.

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

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1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

Or you could start Grier all year and keep what you have and not sign anyone.  You could get in the top 5 just doing nothing.

Yes---I questioned why even bring in a Mariota--but you need something at QB since Cam and Allen are prolly gone.

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Tbe Grand Master

Tbe

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21 minutes ago, The Huddler said:

simple

 

cut old expensive guys.

 

play young inexperienced players 

 

suck, but still evaluate/develop players. 

Nailed it. That’s what happened in 2010 and what is probably going to happen this year.

If done right we end up with a top QB prospect and a good group of young players with experience under their belt.

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