Corona Virus

[stirs]

6 minutes ago, Ja Rhule said:

I have been reading foreign news and I’d say one thing...  we better be glad we are in US.  Other countries told their people to stay home, cancel schools and no stimulus.  Some countries raised taxes to help with government lost revenues.  Citizens of those countries actually point finger at US and say how it should be done.

Just pull out the giant Federal Government credit card.

We use the plastic here better than anywhere on earth

[kungfoodude]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/experts-think-we-need-an-army-of-public-health-workers-to-safely-return-to-normal/

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-did-the-world-shut-down-for-covid-19-but-not-ebola-sars-or-swine-flu/

[Tbe]

34 minutes ago, Ja Rhule said:

I have been reading foreign news and I’d say one thing...  we better be glad we are in US.  Other countries told their people to stay home, cancel schools and no stimulus.  Some countries raised taxes to help with government lost revenues.  Citizens of those countries actually point finger at US and say how it should be done.

A lot of countries can’t “print” more money like we can. If you don’t control your currency, you have limited options.

[Tbe]

1 hour ago, imminent rogaine said:

We are about to pull a Ron Rivera and Co. w the Coronavirus. Jump out to a big lead with aggressive offense and defense then at half time we switch tactics and go 3 and out every series and play prevent while the opponent makes a comeback.

I get the sentiment but the analogy doesn’t really work. The point of flattening the curve isn’t that less people will get sick, it’s to prolong the amount of time it takes for the virus to move through the population. The same number of people are going to get sick no matter what we do. “Winning” is no longer an option.

Given the fact that so many hospitals around the country are far below capacity right now, it doesn’t make sense to keep up these lock downs in many areas. We need smart measured ways of letting people go back to work, life, etc.

This virus is going to be around a while. The economy can’t outlast it under the current restrictions.

[NanuqoftheNorth]

 

 

[imminent rogaine]

3 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Nailed it.

Except I'd say it's more like watching Shanahan screw up this year's Super Bowl. You're out to a nice lead what you do and then decide to switch tactics and have a Jimmy G vs. Mahomes shootout then act shocked by the results. It won't be going too conservative that seals our fate on this one, it'll be over-aggressiveness. You already have Trump pounding the drum in the White House and now we're watching a coalition of Democratic governors band together, both vying to put themselves in position to claim victory on re-opening the American economy.

Well I meant aggressive and conservative in terms of how we “attack” virus mitigation.

Good one w shanahan. 28-3? 

Edited April 14, 2020 by imminent rogaine

[imminent rogaine]

2 hours ago, Tbe said:

I get the sentiment but the analogy doesn’t really work. The point of flattening the curve isn’t that less people will get sick, it’s to prolong the amount of time it takes for the virus to move through the population. The same number of people are going to get sick no matter what we do. “Winning” is no longer an option.

Given the fact that so many hospitals around the country are far below capacity right now, it doesn’t make sense to keep up these lock downs in many areas. We need smart measured ways of letting people go back to work, life, etc.

This virus is going to be around a while. The economy can’t outlast it under the current restrictions.

Models use constants to predict the future; if you change the variables, you scrap the model. If we change tactics and go back out, it will just spike at a later date. We won’t have flattened anything, just delayed the spike.

The only way hospitals aren’t at capacity is because they aren’t doing any normal procedures. My wife’s neuro icu department is now fully covid. All of the other departments have filled up and spilled over. 
 

I agree that a return to normalcy has to be controlled and measured and has to happen at some point. I just really doubt anyone’s ability to ensure that it happens safely.

 

[Tbe]

3 minutes ago, imminent rogaine said:

Models use constants to predict the future; if you change the variables, you scrap the model. If we change tactics and go back out, it will just spike at a later date. We won’t have flattened anything, just delayed the spike.

The only way hospitals aren’t at capacity is because they aren’t doing any normal procedures. My wife’s neuro icu department is now fully covid. All of the other departments have filled up and spilled over. 
 

I agree that a return to normalcy has to be controlled and measured and has to happen at some point. I just really doubt anyone’s ability to ensure that it happens safely.

 

There has to be a way to prevent a spike while allowing low risk people to venture out. Require face masks, keep 6ft from others when possible, work from home when possible, etc.

These things completely depend on where you live, but doable in many places.

I don’t know where you live, but I heard many places in Texas and other mid west states are averaging 50% icu capacity right now. Charlotte typically runs at 100% capacity from what I understand, so there is alway an issue here.

Anyway, the bottom line is their is no way to guarantee safety. We need to understand and be ok with some controlled risk. The fallout from these job losses are going to get worse and could in the end be much worse than if we did nothing.

 

[BIGH2001]

7 hours ago, philit99 said:

Scientist now warn that all Americans should practice social distancing until at least 2022 or until a vaccine is finalized. Wow

https://www.mdlinx.com/physiciansense/new-study-why-social-distancing-may-need-to-continue-until-2022/

I can pull things out of my ass all day.  If this were a board game that’s a great idea.  Do “scientists” ever operate in the real world where people have bills and mortgage payments?  I’d rather just take my chances with the virus.

[NanuqoftheNorth]

2 minutes ago, BIGH2001 said:

I can pull things out of my ass all day.  If this were a board game that’s a great idea.  Do “scientists” ever operate in the real world where people have bills and mortgage payments?  I’d rather just take my chances with the virus.

People are going to do whatever it takes to survive and I'm sure "scientists" recognize that as well as any of us.  That doesn't change the reality that until an effective vaccine is available social distancing is a good strategy whenever possible.

[Tbe]

6 minutes ago, BIGH2001 said:

I can pull things out of my ass all day.  If this were a board game that’s a great idea.  Do “scientists” ever operate in the real world where people have bills and mortgage payments?  I’d rather just take my chances with the virus.

Those were Harvard researchers, so no, they have no idea.

This quote was interesting:

”Intermittent social distancing, while an immediate inconvenience, is actually delayed gratification in the sense that it will shorten the epidemic duration, as well as the total length of social distancing. It represents, the researchers wrote, “the only way to avoid overwhelming critical care capacity while building population immunity.”

Basically, we need a lot of people to get the virus but at a rate the healthcare system can take care if them. Keeping everyone home forever won’t do this.

Of course, off and on social distancing will leave a lot of people unemployed for a very long time.

Long term unemployed  people = people who can’t social distance.

[Tbe]

CDC, FEMA have drafted a national plan to reopen US, report says

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/us/cdc-fema-national-strategy/index.html

[stirs]

Its almost like we should have been quarantining the folks most affected from the beginning and not treating the entire nation as if they were 80 yrs old with COPD.  The middling approach did not protect the older ones.

[Ja Rhule]

32 minutes ago, Tbe said:

CDC, FEMA have drafted a national plan to reopen US, report says

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/us/cdc-fema-national-strategy/index.html

COVID19 vaccine won’t  be available for another year.  People need jobs.  Gotta keep the economy going.