The myth of the #1 pick

[NAS]

It seems there is a myth that needs to be debunked regarding the value of the #1 pick in the draft, specifically for drafting a future franchise QB, let alone one that will win you the Super Bowl.

If we look at the last 22 years, dating back to 1998, you can argue there have been only 2 picks that fully lived up to their potential:  Peyton Manning and Eli Manning.

There are maybe two others who have had a lot of success but didn't fully live up to their potential due to injuries, including Cam Newton and Andrew Luck.  

Most others can be considered as underperforming.

Tanking or trading for a number 1 pick is no guarantee to land us a franchise QB so let's stop the nonsense.  If we're lucky, we need to find a future QB in mid to late round 1 , just like the Chiefs found Mahomes.  

NFL #1 picks for QB since 1998:

Year    Player    Position    School    Team    Years Played    Pro Bowls
2018    Baker Mayfield    QB    Oklahoma    Cleveland Browns    1    0

2016    Jared Goff            QB    California    Los Angeles Rams    3    2

2015    Jameis Winston    QB    Florida St.    Tampa Bay Buccaneers    4    1

2012    Andrew Luck    QB    Stanford    Indianapolis Colts    6    4

2011    Cam Newton    QB    Auburn    Carolina Panthers    8    3

2010    Sam Bradford    QB    Oklahoma    St. Louis Rams    9    0

2009    Matthew Stafford    QB    Georgia    Detroit Lions    10    1

2007    JaMarcus Russell    QB    LSU    Oakland Raiders    3    0

2005    Alex Smith    QB    Utah    San Francisco 49ers    14    3

2004    Eli Manning    QB    Mississippi    San Diego Chargers    15    4

2003    Carson Palmer    QB    Southern Cal.    Cincinnati Bengals    15    3

2002    David Carr    QB    Fresno State    Houston Texans    11    0

2001    Michael Vick    QB    Virginia Tech    Atlanta Falcons    11    4

1999    Tim Couch    QB    Kentucky    Cleveland Browns    6    0

1998    Peyton Manning    QB    Tennessee    Indianapolis Colts    16    11

[bobowilson]

None of those guys were as good of a prospect as Trevor, with the exception of Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck (who were both studs).

And Cam Newton is going to the Hall of Fame

 

[Daddy_Uncle]

lol the stuff people come up with

[MMA]

1 hour ago, NAS said:

It seems there is a myth that needs to be debunked regarding the value of the #1 pick in the draft, specifically for drafting a future franchise QB, let alone one that will win you the Super Bowl.

If we look at the last 22 years, dating back to 1998, you can argue there have been only 2 picks that fully lived up to their potential:  Peyton Manning and Eli Manning.

There are maybe two others who have had a lot of success but didn't fully live up to their potential due to injuries, including Cam Newton and Andrew Luck.  

Most others can be considered as underperforming.

Tanking or trading for a number 1 pick is no guarantee to land us a franchise QB so let's stop the nonsense.  If we're lucky, we need to find a future QB in mid to late round 1 , just like the Chiefs found Mahomes.  

NFL #1 picks for QB since 1998:

Year    Player    Position    School    Team    Years Played    Pro Bowls
2018    Baker Mayfield    QB    Oklahoma    Cleveland Browns    1    0

2016    Jared Goff            QB    California    Los Angeles Rams    3    2

2015    Jameis Winston    QB    Florida St.    Tampa Bay Buccaneers    4    1

2012    Andrew Luck    QB    Stanford    Indianapolis Colts    6    4

2011    Cam Newton    QB    Auburn    Carolina Panthers    8    3

2010    Sam Bradford    QB    Oklahoma    St. Louis Rams    9    0

2009    Matthew Stafford    QB    Georgia    Detroit Lions    10    1

2007    JaMarcus Russell    QB    LSU    Oakland Raiders    3    0

2005    Alex Smith    QB    Utah    San Francisco 49ers    14    3

2004    Eli Manning    QB    Mississippi    San Diego Chargers    15    4

2003    Carson Palmer    QB    Southern Cal.    Cincinnati Bengals    15    3

2002    David Carr    QB    Fresno State    Houston Texans    11    0

2001    Michael Vick    QB    Virginia Tech    Atlanta Falcons    11    4

1999    Tim Couch    QB    Kentucky    Cleveland Browns    6    0

1998    Peyton Manning    QB    Tennessee    Indianapolis Colts    16    11

Yeah, Mahomes just fall out of the sky every day. Even the Chiefs didn’t know the drafted a SB champ in Mahomes. 

[NAS]

9 minutes ago, MMA said:

Yeah, Mahomes just fall out of the sky every day. Even the Chiefs didn’t know the drafted a SB champ in Mahomes. 

All I'm saying is tanking for #1 pick is not a winning strategy.  Yes, we need to try and get another franchise QB, but that doesn't mean we must have the #1 pick to do it.  In fact, most of the time, it doesn't work. 

[beo]

so smith, stafford, vick, and palmer had no success?

[Wes21]

1 hour ago, bobowilson said:

None of those guys were as good of a prospect as Trevor, with the exception of Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck (who were both studs).

And Cam Newton is going to the Hall of Fame

 

I am not old enough to have watched and appreciated Peyton in college.  Nor did we have the internet to go back and watch film either.  Since then there have only been 3 QBs I've watched in college and got a special feeling about them.  Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson...and Trevor Lawrence.

[MMA]

16 minutes ago, NAS said:

All I'm saying is tanking for #1 pick is not a winning strategy.  Yes, we need to try and get another franchise QB, but that doesn't mean we must have the #1 pick to do it.  In fact, most of the time, it doesn't work. 

No team ever trade up to the #1 thinking that they are going to win. They trade up for a QB to try and solidify the most important position on a football team long term. 

[Davidson Deac II]

1 hour ago, bobowilson said:

Cam Newton is going to the Hall of Fame

 

Very little chance of that at this point in his career.

[X-Clown]

OP has a good point about number one picks not being a sure thing but really shoots his argument in the foot by suggesting that Cam didn’t “live up to his potential” as a number one pick to try to prove said point. Comes off as a Lazy “well he didn’t win no rings, Did he?” take, which is pretty insulting to one of the greatest to play for us and who helped carry us for years.  No one would dare make this argument about Luke kuechly (nor should they!)

[NAS]

8 hours ago, X-Clown said:

OP has a good point about number one picks not being a sure thing but really shoots his argument in the foot by suggesting that Cam didn’t “live up to his potential” as a number one pick to try to prove said point. Comes off as a Lazy “well he didn’t win no rings, Did he?” take, which is pretty insulting to one of the greatest to play for us and who helped carry us for years.  No one would dare make this argument about Luke kuechly (nor should they!)

I said Cam is not a bust and was on his way to a HOF career before injuries, but so was Luck.  Sadly, they've both fallen short of fulfilling their potential due to injuries and Cam has obviously had one of the greatest seasons of a QB in history.  

[Doyle]

1998 is a very specific date to go back to isn’t it?    I wonder why you did that?

[NAS]

3 hours ago, Doyle said:

1998 is a very specific date to go back to isn’t it?    I wonder why you did that?

Just felt the modern QB era started then

[WarHeel]

If the statistic of success is bound by SB wins then you’re looking at a lot of “wasted” picks across the lifespan of the NFL draft, and not exclusively at the QB position.